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valuebot post-mortem: killed on criterion — 1W/993L (0.075x), sub-2¢ edge refuted in the current era; app destroyed

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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jaxperro
2026-07-19 14:16:07 -04:00
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# Session handoff — 2026-07-19 (rev 15: tape+bench+gate; rev 14: +$44 bankroll, exact paper-parity config; rev 13: FAK parity; rev 12: chain-seed)
## 2026-07-19: VALUEBOT KILLED (user call, pre-registered criterion met)
994 resolved: 1W/993L, 0.075x — historical 1.24-1.28x edge refuted in the
current era (expected ~12 wins, got 1). Post-mortem in value/PLAN.md; Fly
app destroyed; feed/dashboard kept as record. Reusable takeaways: the honest
fill model + silo pattern; next hypothesis should come from the RTDS tape.
## 2026-07-19 (rev 16): audit hardening shipped (top-10 items 1-9)
Deep-audit fixes, all deployed same day: (1) the book is now fully
serialized — resolve_pendings/retry_stuck_exits/write_feed take bot.lock,