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missed rows settled at resolution get one exit-print re-check

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Fast in-play markets can resolve before the 5-min pass sees the sharp's
sell (and pre-2026-07-09 rows predate exit-aware settling) — won/lost
stamps hid real pre-resolution sells. A redeem prints exactly the
payout; an exit print >2c away revalues the counterfactual at the
sharp's exit. Idempotent via exit_checked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
2026-07-09 14:10:25 -04:00
parent 164b16deb8
commit 8d0b087dd1
1 changed files with 34 additions and 0 deletions
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copybot.py
+34
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@@ -1236,6 +1236,40 @@ class Copybot:
# silence never reads as an exit. Entry+exit taker fees charged,
# like every mirrored sell.
for m in st.get("missed", []):
# (B) rows already SETTLED at resolution (won/lost/refund):
# fast in-play markets can resolve before this 5-min pass sees
# the sharp's sell, and rows from before 2026-07-09 predate
# exit-aware settling. One idempotent re-check per row: a
# redeem prints EXACTLY the payout, so an exit print >2c away
# means the sharp sold pre-resolution — revalue the
# counterfactual at their exit (mirror semantics, both fees).
if (m.get("status") in ("won", "lost", "refund")
and not m.get("exit_checked")
and m.get("cond") and m.get("wallet") and m.get("token")):
cps = sm.get_json("/closed-positions", {"user": m["wallet"],
"market": m["cond"], "limit": 10})
if cps is None:
continue # API blip — retry next pass
m["exit_checked"] = True # examined once, forever
row = next((p for p in cps
if str(p.get("asset")) == str(m["token"])), None)
if row is not None:
tb = row.get("totalBought") or 0
xp = ((row.get("avgPrice") or 0)
+ ((row.get("realizedPnl") or 0) / tb if tb else 0))
payout = {"won": 1.0, "lost": 0.0, "refund": 0.5}[m["status"]]
if abs(xp - payout) > 0.02:
p = m.get("price") or 0.5
sh = m["stake"] / max(p, 0.001)
fee_in = taker_fee(sh, p, self.fee_rate)
fee_out = taker_fee(sh, xp, self.fee_rate)
old_pnl = m.get("pnl")
m.update(status="sold", exit_price=round(xp, 4),
pnl=round(sh * xp - m["stake"] - fee_in - fee_out, 2))
log(f"missed-reval: {(m.get('title') or '?')[:38]} — sharp "
f"sold @ {xp:.3f} pre-resolution; counterfactual "
f"${old_pnl} -> ${m['pnl']:+.2f} (sold)")
continue
if (m.get("status") != "open" or not m.get("cond")
or not m.get("wallet") or not m.get("token")):
continue