From 8958279ee8e1848f4a7f35844851d8a252712819 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2026 17:18:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] cleanup: archive everything the live system no longer touches MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - retired-infra/: Railway config, Mac launchd runner, GH-Actions cron (worker is Fly.io arn now; Actions cron last fired 2026-07-02) - live-research/: the June selection experiments (strategy/followability/ pnl_basket/pnl_focused/backtest_june/clean_test + outputs) - us-venue/: the scrapped Polymarket-US listability probe (+ its env-gated ONLY_CONDS replay filter stays in portfolio.py — generally useful for subset replays) - root sweeps hunt/huntwide/oos/copyback/watch.json -> archive/ - untracked logs/CSVs of dead experiments -> archive/local/ (gitignored) - READMEs updated: Fly migration, geoblock gotcha, new file map Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- .gitignore | 1 + README.md | 50 +- archive/README.md | 14 + copyback.py => archive/copyback.py | 0 hunt.py => archive/hunt.py | 0 huntwide.py => archive/huntwide.py | 0 .../live-research}/backtest_june.py | 0 {live => archive/live-research}/clean_test.sh | 0 .../live-research}/followability.py | 0 {live => archive/live-research}/pnl_basket.py | 0 .../live-research}/pnl_focused.py | 0 .../live-research}/selection.json | 0 .../live-research}/sharps_summary.json | 0 {live => archive/live-research}/strategy.py | 0 .../live-research}/watch_final.json | 0 oos.py => archive/oos.py | 0 .../retired-infra/.railwayignore | 0 .../retired-infra/com.jaxperro.copybot.plist | 0 .../retired-infra/copybot.workflow.yml | 0 .../retired-infra/nixpacks.toml | 0 .../retired-infra/railway.json | 0 .../retired-infra/run_copybot.sh | 0 .../retired-infra/runtime.txt | 0 archive/us-venue/us_listable.json | 4067 +++++++++++++++++ archive/us-venue/us_listable.py | 196 + watch.json => archive/watch.json | 0 live/README.md | 6 +- live/portfolio.py | 13 + 28 files changed, 4325 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) rename copyback.py => archive/copyback.py (100%) rename hunt.py => archive/hunt.py (100%) rename huntwide.py => archive/huntwide.py (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/backtest_june.py (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/clean_test.sh (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/followability.py (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/pnl_basket.py (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/pnl_focused.py (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/selection.json (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/sharps_summary.json (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/strategy.py (100%) rename {live => archive/live-research}/watch_final.json (100%) rename oos.py => archive/oos.py (100%) rename .railwayignore => archive/retired-infra/.railwayignore (100%) rename com.jaxperro.copybot.plist => archive/retired-infra/com.jaxperro.copybot.plist (100%) rename .github/workflows/copybot.yml => archive/retired-infra/copybot.workflow.yml (100%) rename nixpacks.toml => archive/retired-infra/nixpacks.toml (100%) rename railway.json => archive/retired-infra/railway.json (100%) rename run_copybot.sh => archive/retired-infra/run_copybot.sh (100%) rename runtime.txt => archive/retired-infra/runtime.txt (100%) create mode 100644 archive/us-venue/us_listable.json create mode 100644 archive/us-venue/us_listable.py rename watch.json => archive/watch.json (100%) diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 1f39ba57..abd9cc5c 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -41,3 +41,4 @@ live/*_scored.json live/watch_prejune*.json live/history/ live/slug_cache.json +archive/local/ diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 2d96db86..f6758421 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -24,12 +24,13 @@ Three deployed pieces + one static dashboard: | piece | where it runs | what it does | |-------|--------------|--------------| | **daily pipeline** (`live/daily.sh`) | this Mac, launchd **08:00** (runs on wake if the Mac was asleep) | refresh the bet cache → 5-gate skill scan → fee-aware sharp selection → conviction floors → backtest book → publish JSON feeds to GitHub | -| **copybot worker** (`copybot.py` via `host/start.sh`) | Railway, 24/7 | **push mode**: an Alchemy address-activity webhook (`copybot follow set`, Polygon) pings `POST /alchemy` the moment a followed wallet trades (~2–5s detection), signature-verified; a 60s heartbeat settles/publishes and a 5-min backstop poll catches dropped pushes. Paper-copies with real fees/lag/slippage, settles at CLOB resolution, commits its book back to the repo | +| **copybot worker** (`copybot.py` via `host/start.sh`) | **Fly.io app `wwf-copybot`, region `arn` (Stockholm), 24/7** — migrated off Railway 2026-07-06: Railway ran it in a US region, which Polymarket's IP geoblock would 403 the moment orders got real; Stockholm is unrestricted AND ~25ms from the CLOB's eu-west-2 primaries. Every boot self-checks the geo-gate (`host/geocheck.py`) | **push mode**: an Alchemy address-activity webhook (`copybot follow set`, Polygon) pings `POST /alchemy` the moment a followed wallet trades (~2–5s detection), signature-verified; a 60s heartbeat settles/publishes and a 5-min backstop poll catches dropped pushes. Paper-copies with real fees/lag/slippage, settles at CLOB resolution, commits its book back to the repo | | **Discord digest** (`live/discord_daily.py`) | end of the daily pipeline | one message/day: the sharp list with profile links + 30-day conviction stats (per-trade pings retired 2026-07-04; the old Alchemy watcher lives in `archive/webhook_receiver.py`) | | **dashboard** | [jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading) (static, in the `jaxperro` repo) | renders the three JSON feeds: live bot book, backtest book, sharp table | -**The July 2026 live test:** a fresh $1,000 paper book (started 2026-07-02, on -Railway) following the wallet set in **`live/copybot.paper.json`** — the single +**The July 2026 live test:** a fresh $1,000 paper book (started 2026-07-02 on +Railway; moved to Fly.io Stockholm 2026-07-06 with the book intact) following +the wallet set in **`live/copybot.paper.json`** — the single source of truth (currently 5 volume + 3 whale wallets; the dashboard hero lists them live). Two stake classes: **volume** wallets (4% of equity/bet) are copied on their **conviction bets only** (auto p80 floor derived at boot); **whale** @@ -43,7 +44,7 @@ up, real money follows (see [`LIVE_TEST.md`](LIVE_TEST.md)). ``` data layer selection execution display ────────── ───────── ───────── ─────── - live/cache.duckdb ──▶ trust.py (trusted-row filter) copybot.py (Railway) ─▶ jaxperro.com/trading + live/cache.duckdb ──▶ trust.py (trusted-row filter) copybot.py (Fly arn) ─▶ jaxperro.com/trading (schema v2: skill.py (5-gate funnel) · class % of equity, · copybot_live.json 35k wallets, conviction_scan.py (p80 + z_all) capped at the (live bot book) 20M+ resolved bets, validate_timing.py (fee-aware signal's own bet · portfolio.json @@ -59,11 +60,11 @@ up, real money follows (see [`LIVE_TEST.md`](LIVE_TEST.md)). | task | how | |------|-----| -| **add / remove / reclass a LIVE wallet** | edit the `wallets` list in `live/copybot.paper.json` (`{"wallet","name","class":"volume"\|"whale","floor":123?}` — floor optional, auto p80 at boot; whales ignore floors) then run **`./live/deploy_bot.sh`** — it validates, previews, **syncs the Alchemy webhook's address list** (`live/sync_webhook.py`, Notify API), commits, pushes, redeploys Railway, and confirms the boot banner. Fully self-contained — nothing to click in any dashboard | +| **add / remove / reclass a LIVE wallet** | edit the `wallets` list in `live/copybot.paper.json` (`{"wallet","name","class":"volume"\|"whale","floor":123?}` — floor optional, auto p80 at boot; whales ignore floors) then run **`./live/deploy_bot.sh`** — it validates, previews, **syncs the Alchemy webhook's address list** (`live/sync_webhook.py`, Notify API), commits, pushes, restarts the Fly machine, and confirms the boot banner. Fully self-contained — nothing to click in any dashboard | | **backtest any wallet set** | edit `live/backtest.json` (same entry shape) → `python3 live/portfolio.py`; ad-hoc without touching the dashboard: `python3 portfolio.py --wallets 0xabc,0xdef:whale --days 14 --out /tmp/t.json` | | **promote a wallet to live** | prove it in `backtest.json` first, copy the same entry into `copybot.paper.json`, run `deploy_bot.sh` | -| **watch the live bot** | `railway logs --service copybot` (one summary line per 60s poll); the book is also committed as `live/copybot_live.json` and rendered on the dashboard | -| **restart / redeploy the bot** | `railway redeploy --service copybot --yes` (config/code changes: the worker clones the repo fresh at boot). **Changes to `host/start.sh`, `railway.json`, or env vars need a full rebuild: `railway up --service copybot --detach`** — redeploy reuses the old image and env snapshot (this bit us: the image's launcher was frozen for days) | +| **watch the live bot** | `flyctl logs --app wwf-copybot` (one summary line per 60s heartbeat); the book is also committed as `live/copybot_live.json` and rendered on the dashboard | +| **restart / redeploy the bot** | `flyctl apps restart wwf-copybot` (config/code changes: the worker clones the repo fresh at boot, so a restart IS the deploy). **Changes to `host/` or `fly.toml` need an image rebuild: `flyctl deploy --remote-only`.** Secrets: `flyctl secrets set K=V` (applies with an automatic restart). Keep it ONE machine — Fly loves creating a second for "high availability", and two bots = two writers on one book (`flyctl scale count 1`) | | **run the daily pipeline manually** | `cd live && bash daily.sh` (launchd runs it 08:00; ~40 min, mostly collect). Never run two at once — the cache is single-writer | | **refresh just the sharp list** | `cd live && python3 conviction_scan.py && python3 validate_timing.py` | | **daily Discord digest** | sent by `live/discord_daily.py` at the end of `daily.sh`; webhook = `daily_webhook` in gitignored `config.json` | @@ -71,10 +72,11 @@ up, real money follows (see [`LIVE_TEST.md`](LIVE_TEST.md)). Three moving parts talk to each other: this repo (research + bot + feeds), the `jaxperro` repo (static dashboard reading this repo's raw JSON feeds), and the -Railway project `magnificent-kindness` (service `copybot`; the old `web` -watcher service is retired). The bot **commits its own state/feed back to this -repo** every few minutes — always `git pull --rebase --autostash` before you -push (every script here already does). +Fly.io app `wwf-copybot` (Stockholm; the old Railway project +`magnificent-kindness` is stopped and can be deleted). The bot **commits its +own state/feed back to this repo** every few minutes — always +`git pull --rebase --autostash` before you push (every script here already +does). --- @@ -85,20 +87,20 @@ push (every script here already does). | `live/` | **the current system**: cache, scanners, sharp selection, backtest, daily pipeline ([live/README](live/README.md)) | | `live/trust.py` | the trusted-row filter every selector must read through (see gotchas 8–9) | | `live/backtest.json` · `live/copybot.paper.json` | the two wallet-set configs: backtest experiments vs. the live paper bot (same entry shape) | -| `live/deploy_bot.sh` | one-command live-bot deploy: validate → preview → Alchemy address sync → commit → push → Railway redeploy → confirm boot | +| `live/deploy_bot.sh` | one-command live-bot deploy: validate → preview → Alchemy address sync → commit → push → Fly restart → confirm boot | | `live/sync_webhook.py` | diffs the follow set against the push-mode Alchemy webhook and patches add/remove (token in gitignored `config.json`) | -| `railway.json` · `nixpacks.toml` · `.railwayignore` | Railway build config: NIXPACKS builder + `bash host/start.sh` start command pinned as code; secrets/cache excluded from build uploads | +| `fly.toml` · `fly.Dockerfile` | Fly.io app config (wwf-copybot, region `arn`, single machine, `:8080` webhook ingress) + the worker image (python + git; the bot code itself is cloned fresh at boot) | +| `host/geocheck.py` | 3-probe geo-gate verdict (ipinfo → Polymarket's `/api/geoblock` → unauth CLOB order POST); runs at every boot, `GEOCHECK_ONLY=1` = probe-and-idle for testing a new host/region without a second book-writer | | `live/discord_daily.py` | the daily Discord digest (the only Discord output) | | `copybot.py` | the copy-trading bot: push/poll trigger → follow filter → execution engine (paper + live) | | `archive/copytrade.py` | the execution engine the bot reuses: sizing, risk gates, price guard, paper/live executors | -| `host/start.sh` | 24/7 worker bootstrap for Railway/Fly/VPS (clones repo, resumes committed state) | +| `host/start.sh` | 24/7 worker bootstrap for Fly/any VPS (geo-gate check, clones repo, resumes committed state) | | `LIVE_TEST.md` · `preflight_live.py` · `redeem.py` | real-money runbook, read-only credential preflight, on-chain redemption | | `insider.py` | the original detector: z-score, pre-resolution timing, fresh-wallet flags, funding-cluster rings | | `smart_money.py` | shared HTTP helper + survivorship-corrected win-rate dashboard (`:8899`) | | `archive/webhook_receiver.py` | retired 2026-07-04: Alchemy webhook → per-trade Discord pings (replaced by `live/discord_daily.py`'s daily digest) | | `wide/` | frozen-subgraph bulk scanner (1.76M wallets, historical only — subgraph froze Jan 2026) | -| `archive/` | the six strategies that didn't work, kept honest ([archive/README](archive/README.md)) | -| `hunt.py` · `huntwide.py` · `oos.py` · `copyback.py` | earlier research sweeps/backtests (superseded by `live/`) | +| `archive/` | everything retired, kept honest ([archive/README](archive/README.md)): the six failed strategies, earlier research sweeps (`hunt/huntwide/oos/copyback`), the superseded live selection layer (`live-research/`), the scrapped Polymarket-US venue probe (`us-venue/`), and retired infra (`retired-infra/`: Railway config, Mac launchd runner, GH-Actions cron) | --- @@ -166,7 +168,7 @@ in [`live/README.md`](live/README.md). | `live/copybot.paper.json` | **committed** (no secrets): the live paper bot's wallet set + classes + follow/risk params — deploy with `live/deploy_bot.sh` | | `config.json` | `daily_webhook` (Discord digest) · `alchemy_notify_token` + `alchemy_webhook_id` (webhook address sync) · `alchemy_signing_key` (local push-mode runs) · Alchemy RPC key · a legacy curated watchlist + floors (`sync_floors.py`) | | `config.live.json` | live-trading credentials (`private_key`, `funder_address`) + tiny test caps — see `LIVE_TEST.md` | -| Railway `copybot` service | `GITHUB_TOKEN` (fine-grained PAT, contents-RW on this repo — the bot commits its state/feed back) · `ALCHEMY_SIGNING_KEY` (presence = push mode; delete it to fall back to 60s polling) · `PORT=8080` (the public domain routes here) | +| Fly `wwf-copybot` secrets | `GITHUB_TOKEN` (fine-grained PAT, contents-RW on this repo — the bot commits its state/feed back) · `ALCHEMY_SIGNING_KEY` (presence = push mode; remove it to fall back to 60s polling) · `DISCORD_WEBHOOK`. The webhook ingress is `https://wwf-copybot.fly.dev/alchemy` (Alchemy webhook `wh_blf4qjjvfdbqs9mc`, address list auto-synced by `deploy_bot.sh`) | --- @@ -215,7 +217,7 @@ backtest and bot share: Safety: paper is the default; live requires `mode:"live"` **and** `--live` **and** a typed confirmation phrase, under hard caps. The GH-Actions cron runner is retired (GitHub throttled `*/5` to ~2h in practice — it copied 1 of -~104 qualifying trades in June; the always-on Railway poller replaced it). +~104 qualifying trades in June; the always-on worker replaced it). --- @@ -278,7 +280,17 @@ runner is retired (GitHub throttled `*/5` to ~2h in practice — it copied 1 of a transiently failed re-pull then hides the wallet's whole history from exact `pulled_at` checks (trust.py has a 14-day fallback for this). -10. **Hold-to-resolution P&L is a copy ceiling, not the wallet's bank +10. **Polymarket geoblocks ORDER PLACEMENT by IP** (reads are open everywhere — + which is why the paper bot never noticed Railway was in a US region). + Restricted list has surprises: US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, + Poland, Singapore, Australia, Ontario, **Brazil** + (docs.polymarket.com/developers/CLOB/geoblock). `host/geocheck.py` gives a + 3-probe verdict from any box and runs at every worker boot; **never go live + from a box that doesn't print `VERDICT: TRADABLE`** — and the machine's + location doesn't relocate *you* (trade live from Colombia months, paper + from US months). + +11. **Hold-to-resolution P&L is a copy ceiling, not the wallet's bank statement.** The dashboard's Conv/All-Time P&L columns price every entry held to resolution at the wallet's own stakes — the right yardstick for a copier that holds, and the wrong one for judging the wallet itself. diff --git a/archive/README.md b/archive/README.md index 5e84a974..405459fa 100644 --- a/archive/README.md +++ b/archive/README.md @@ -19,3 +19,17 @@ run one you'd adjust the import path. | `xarb.py` | Cross-venue scanner: match the same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi, flag price gaps. | Venues priced efficiently (~1¢); both legs cost >$1 after fees. | The keeper that came out of all this lives at the repo root: `insider.py`. + +## Later additions (2026-07-06 cleanup) + +| Path | What it was | Why it's here | +|------|-------------|---------------| +| `hunt.py` / `huntwide.py` / `oos.py` / `copyback.py` / `watch.json` | pre-`live/` research sweeps: candidate hunts, out-of-sample replays, copy-backtests | superseded by the `live/` selection layer (skill → conviction → validate_timing) | +| `live-research/` | the June 2026 selection experiments: `strategy.py`, `followability.py`, `pnl_basket/focused.py`, `backtest_june.py`, `clean_test.sh` + their outputs | the research is settled (see FINDINGS); the surviving ideas live on in `live/` | +| `us-venue/` | `us_listable.py` — mapped the replay stream against Polymarket US listings (95/794 matched; US settles off-chain via FCM/clearinghouse, so no wallet tracking) | the US move was scrapped 2026-07-06: no on-chain wallets, no copyable signal | +| `retired-infra/` | Railway build config (`railway.json`, `nixpacks.toml`, `.railwayignore`, `runtime.txt`), the Mac launchd runner (`com.jaxperro.copybot.plist`, `run_copybot.sh`), the GH-Actions cron (`copybot.workflow.yml`) | the worker now runs on Fly.io `arn` (see root README); the Actions cron was throttled to uselessness; the Mac poller was replaced by the cloud worker | +| `local/` | untracked logs/CSVs/state from the above experiments | kept out of git; safe to delete wholesale | + +**Still-live code in this directory:** `copytrade.py` is imported by the root +`copybot.py` as its execution engine (sizing, risk gates, executors) — archived +as a *strategy* (raw copy-trading is −EV), kept as a *library*. diff --git a/copyback.py b/archive/copyback.py similarity index 100% rename from copyback.py rename to archive/copyback.py diff --git a/hunt.py b/archive/hunt.py similarity index 100% rename from hunt.py rename to archive/hunt.py diff --git a/huntwide.py b/archive/huntwide.py similarity index 100% rename from huntwide.py rename to archive/huntwide.py diff --git a/live/backtest_june.py b/archive/live-research/backtest_june.py similarity index 100% rename from live/backtest_june.py rename to archive/live-research/backtest_june.py diff --git a/live/clean_test.sh b/archive/live-research/clean_test.sh similarity index 100% rename from live/clean_test.sh rename to archive/live-research/clean_test.sh diff --git a/live/followability.py b/archive/live-research/followability.py similarity index 100% rename from live/followability.py rename to archive/live-research/followability.py diff --git a/live/pnl_basket.py b/archive/live-research/pnl_basket.py similarity index 100% rename from live/pnl_basket.py rename to archive/live-research/pnl_basket.py diff --git a/live/pnl_focused.py b/archive/live-research/pnl_focused.py similarity index 100% rename from live/pnl_focused.py rename to archive/live-research/pnl_focused.py diff --git a/live/selection.json b/archive/live-research/selection.json similarity index 100% rename from live/selection.json rename to archive/live-research/selection.json diff --git a/live/sharps_summary.json b/archive/live-research/sharps_summary.json similarity index 100% rename from live/sharps_summary.json rename to archive/live-research/sharps_summary.json diff --git a/live/strategy.py b/archive/live-research/strategy.py similarity index 100% rename from live/strategy.py rename to archive/live-research/strategy.py diff --git a/live/watch_final.json b/archive/live-research/watch_final.json similarity index 100% rename from live/watch_final.json rename to archive/live-research/watch_final.json diff --git a/oos.py b/archive/oos.py similarity index 100% rename from oos.py rename to archive/oos.py diff --git a/.railwayignore b/archive/retired-infra/.railwayignore similarity index 100% rename from .railwayignore rename to archive/retired-infra/.railwayignore diff --git a/com.jaxperro.copybot.plist b/archive/retired-infra/com.jaxperro.copybot.plist similarity index 100% rename from com.jaxperro.copybot.plist rename to archive/retired-infra/com.jaxperro.copybot.plist diff --git a/.github/workflows/copybot.yml b/archive/retired-infra/copybot.workflow.yml similarity index 100% rename from .github/workflows/copybot.yml rename to archive/retired-infra/copybot.workflow.yml diff --git a/nixpacks.toml b/archive/retired-infra/nixpacks.toml similarity index 100% rename from nixpacks.toml rename to archive/retired-infra/nixpacks.toml diff --git a/railway.json b/archive/retired-infra/railway.json similarity index 100% rename from railway.json rename to archive/retired-infra/railway.json diff --git a/run_copybot.sh b/archive/retired-infra/run_copybot.sh similarity index 100% rename from run_copybot.sh rename to archive/retired-infra/run_copybot.sh diff --git a/runtime.txt b/archive/retired-infra/runtime.txt similarity index 100% rename from runtime.txt rename to archive/retired-infra/runtime.txt diff --git a/archive/us-venue/us_listable.json b/archive/us-venue/us_listable.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9dba7125 --- /dev/null +++ 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"0x70efbb66b27d88f78ae2970b0be979359eb803b67560527107632e74fac16412": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5" + }, + "0xed6c24bc2faa00972580d2c0502059bf6a8bc554688eaacb633ae973a03fd4c4": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Map Handicap: BIG.A (-1.5) vs Endless Journey (+1.5)" + }, + "0x9b10d2451b8933980f3b176515e25f37075e447609c09b9ce642c028c702da18": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5)" + }, + "0x2917f648421a49d0fb2da4d1bb559b567fba6a37602282ead8203cf8d973bed0": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5)" + }, + "0xeba4a69772b2cf70702c9f5cbb81b314a15e07eb1b304aa901a9347bfaf69fa5": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Games Total: O/U 2.5" + }, + "0x1ee84abfca584e5ee01aa987a030e0faf3bd98dcd4f8ddb15525cd406d0d6728": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Grzegorzewski vs. Kamrowski: Match O/U 23.5" + }, + "0x4b62009019db0b27a3c0c8164fc1d3f262d04418664956573a0f5b67a8465baf": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Hikaru Sato vs. Kurea Hayasaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5" + }, + "0x2c280f341eb3c5981db84681273fa6970c89cd941ac6d62c43585d25748b6609": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group A" + }, + "0x8aa947f25d92738c7c027f527bba4f523198bf990cd56cda3c05dd1cf128e47a": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-atp-aleshe-genoli-2026-06-15", + "how": "name", + "title": "Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri" + }, + "0x4e2405ec213ed6ed8d23407971c47b1c1e276edb998751bf83f41eda1bd40a9a": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 1 Winner: Sato vs Hayasaka" + }, + "0xfd5c9c08b45a01c118a84307d3e088e8c8ff8361534368c7283fd15fe8b41073": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Valdez vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 23.5" + }, + "0x0e8f20ceaa8dae9ccb59e1a9cf2fa85cb2339c0f9f784d7b94c51fb5100506c1": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-itfwo-xiluo-jiaxu-2026-06-24", + "how": "name", + "title": "ITF Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Jiayu Xu" + }, + "0xc8e26b877453110c301f9d4de0d4b2b12b9a7306ca40e4d301956b5651858f06": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 1 Winner: Casanova/Taverna vs Aboian/Ambrogi" + }, + "0x027bf700e0b69c1ae6edbcbcec5f9cf655f7c0ae071db748871e8a1bbbddaa63": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5" + }, + "0x63fa12d8cba0aab4daf50f7f5b022f9a7b23fb2640ffaae1a563494248f49409": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5" + }, + "0x6b3706178347b4ee9a6b61adc7e2e2beb61103914be1d3e2eaaf1284663a2580": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B" + }, + "0xe1c7b3ec15e7cb088d086224aa8b8e8e7a7f7902c0c7b9b34bc2f115f45f5bf8": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 1 Winner: Valdez vs Ruiz" + }, + "0xe2329f2bf6b540d851adfedc567277d6ef54a80e2d56615d5eea28c2f9541197": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Shevchenko/Yevseyev" + }, + "0x1558a8cc529aecc2cd16d63874fa46ec09194fc177b04685490c8ccb65714412": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Grzegorzewski vs. Kamrowski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5" + }, + "0x1126477256d6ba91a7bc23762f1478f5ba692673d8b231e52689983baa8a933b": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Jones vs. Carabelli: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5" + }, + "0xff2547062e0b479484a9b9e0c3fe0f7390a3f259b03b0cddaf5f349b56d030f0": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs. Chun-Hsin Tseng: Total Sets O/U 2.5" + }, + "0x43ce80df7605f09229de618c7a6e41e7c1e3323ecbd3d4e2ea4e1773b9162fce": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 1 Winner: Olivieri vs Tseng" + }, + "0xd49b4680a3dc01eb6c5b7ee2106a8376d303c752330425499d7be67f5ed44d0c": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams" + }, + "0x8d0dd3d7bc7e638cd2cb666a5b8573bc9faa2f4d723b7304cd5746e17d1d78e1": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B" + }, + "0xff70f8ca6a5390b3dc824c5fc8c4967a038460323e9b9780078d10893cf7d975": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner" + }, + "0x1dfc264515c383a11ef9477a6d8539f1d75d3c4a5a5db0168f8b477585751d4a": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-atp-alagra-trisch-2026-06-15", + "how": "name", + "title": "Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate" + }, + "0x60886eb20cff17f08ca7b601eec4b57fec8ee63e594dcd9ae70b32828e02a94e": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Paul vs. Munar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5" + }, + "0xe35adedd241631f2f2b225508cdd7d3c587cdcd9c6ac67e64624d6b78aa5025b": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-itfme-erivan-niksch-2026-06-29", + "how": "name", + "title": "ITF Nivelles: Eric Vanshelboim vs Niklas Schell" + }, + "0x3557f14fba2a84f221bcae3847fa2b745b2c1bd27fd9f871a5a8d0ccd38a7ed9": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5)" + }, + "0x7501d6a25ba3e77f4157da5cddd3f34c849a916f3f765a3847e689eb3a923d9a": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-itfwo-mismat-harkaj-2026-06-19", + "how": "name", + "title": "ITF Taipei: Misaki Matsuda vs Haruka Kaji" + }, + "0x58b3d5cf532554c357f2367c5ec4d4d65bb017e0acf8bea82394cee4307b16e4": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Munar" + }, + "0xa5935ed2383a3673b1f932442cbbbe258d692711e136212db6c8fdb49c247f99": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner" + }, + "0x07c2be51b9988406b9c17ad4515319cc93b8dfc6376ccd5263c2eebc12cc2b22": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-atp-lukmik-eminav-2026-06-07", + "how": "name", + "title": "Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava" + }, + "0x3a6c85b2d44936ff18cefb3500a52981fda56cadf3bd3d6f9dcc252191545ea0": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?" + }, + "0x5cc66efe7cf800199e569c8d9bdbcd051565036fb9397ab2d21fdc87111daf40": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?" + }, + "0xd894c005b5c131e7d7bff14b0338bd66d8d4e9d8f2a7b4bd4ae6b6402b483464": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Sato vs. Hayasaka: Match O/U 23.5" + }, + "0x0673961bf8304c43f2aa9c9cdb67b2288fb36a0180a26d99772578b2615a5f9e": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Games Total: O/U 2.5" + }, + "0xfbedc33fe65297ea231c0319af42c3ca22ac35d178c8d1303f72ddcd969ed6ca": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5" + }, + "0x2cbbd4c368f6ad88ecc206fdf7035a5204d14b3b40124c3f15be58a4827d9d1f": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner" + }, + "0x0c26093850862c6fc5626e705d35db34c13a81e6641598552d6709d61e600099": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Valdez vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 22.5" + }, + "0x917a56fd37fe98328ac4d992581f9175d148d96888ccd390379a6a7b246afa2f": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner" + }, + "0x7dd1bfc95541ea6f88361f6ce46c1ca683269f8ac85a52c5330cfc4d156ad656": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 1 Winner: Valkusz vs Fellin" + }, + "0x559f23e198228ded60f162437e743a89422dd2e879e0cb216d46037d93ceea7d": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage" + }, + "0xfc82df1af3c64c99ca244e190de7bcf8ccef86bce557cec0113dc63d2bdff3da": { + "listed": true, + "us_slug": "aec-itfw-ipeoz-jespie-2026-06-16", + "how": "name", + "title": "ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri" + }, + "0x109a3826bfc1894b102cbf6bb5b4b7da693adcfbe585be3aba1771b3e9157ec0": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5" + }, + "0x385ba898293a7fbd24a7e899b0bc02753e05bff702a3f281111ceebe731961bd": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Gutierrez vs. Kumasaka: Match O/U 22.5" + }, + "0xe2dbe2b19df71b9cfcc2c24b16bd4355acbf53e7f4032c4c9beddd42d74ce761": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set Handicap: Kumasaka (-1.5) vs Gutierrez (+1.5)" + }, + "0xc0925bf04e93bb515d65fc729315c05e954ba1132f5eabcae405fc8defc2b8e9": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "Gutierrez vs. Kumasaka: Match O/U 21.5" + }, + "0xe077cf6aed403ab9ea54bd289ab0bde9774912c7702f92fd2cba7bf08622c710": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "ITF Roda De Bara: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Takuya Kumasaka" + }, + "0x9b5eeaf5f98d7870a111e383ce143da683745b5d5f0f3d0784487c5114b6ea69": { + "listed": false, + "how": "unmatched", + "title": "ITF Men Roda De Bara: Completed Match: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Takuya Kumasaka" + }, + "0x2e53aa6ef3f1ed334abba086399e2bb72740c2b22771f153e63b858a1e3c0a19": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set 1 Winner: Gutierrez vs Kumasaka" + }, + "0x2de2829ecd75504aeb82c526c733ac90f6c63958801988c68ae6949130a2b613": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Gutierrez vs. Kumasaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5" + }, + "0xe0073adc8f792e7ed2030636004957fa904a0bbe94114acda0705d5edfbe1345": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Set Handicap: McCormick (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5)" + }, + "0xc22588874e01ba97029d4343774f57e8ffb3ccdd0bd86d4c7254f36fb8d74ab8": { + "listed": false, + "how": "no-parse", + "title": "Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs. Takuya Kumasaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/archive/us-venue/us_listable.py b/archive/us-venue/us_listable.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9350dd8b --- /dev/null +++ b/archive/us-venue/us_listable.py @@ -0,0 +1,196 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Which of the replayed bets' markets were ALSO listed on Polymarket US? + +Polymarket US (gateway.polymarket.us, public/no-auth) settles off-chain — no +wallets to copy — but it lists the same game markets, and it RETAINS closed +historical listings (back to Oct 2025). So we can check, for every bet in the +portfolio.py replay stream, whether a real US listing existed for that market: + + tier 1 deterministic slug: US slug = "aec-"/"tec-" + intl slug + (holds for esports/team sports; batched via the repeatable ?slug= param) + tier 2 name+date+line match: tennis abbreviates differently per venue + (US trimcc/pedsak vs intl mccormi/sakamo; itfme-/itfwo- vs itf-), so + match full names from the intl question against a US window of the + bet date's moneyline/totals/spreads listings. + +Sub-market winners ("Set 1 Winner: …") name-match the WRONG (full-match) US +market, so anything with a set/map/half qualifier is tier-1 only. + +Output -> us_listable.json {cond: {listed, us_slug, how, title}}. Replay just +the listable subset with: + ONLY_CONDS=us_listable.json PORTFOLIO_OUT=/tmp/pf_us.json python3 portfolio.py +""" +import json +import os +import re +import ssl +import time +import unicodedata +import urllib.request +from collections import Counter +from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor + +import portfolio as pf + +_SSL = ssl._create_unverified_context() +GATEWAY = "https://gateway.polymarket.us/v1/markets" +HERE = os.path.dirname(__file__) +OUT = os.path.join(HERE, "us_listable.json") + + +def get(url): + for attempt in range(3): + try: + r = urllib.request.urlopen(urllib.request.Request( + url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}), timeout=30, context=_SSL) + return json.loads(r.read()) + except Exception: + time.sleep(1 + attempt) + return {} + + +def norm(s): + s = unicodedata.normalize("NFD", s or "").encode("ascii", "ignore").decode().lower() + return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", re.sub(r"[^a-z0-9 ]", " ", s)).strip() + + +def name_in(name, hay): + ws = [w for w in name.split() if len(w) > 1] + return bool(ws) and all(w in hay for w in ws) + + +# sub-market qualifiers: a "Set 1 Winner"/"First Map" market would name-match +# the full-match US moneyline — a false positive — so these skip tier 2 +QUAL = re.compile(r"\b(set \d|1st|first|2nd|second|3rd|third|map \d|game \d|handicap|" + r"to score|half|quarter|period|race to|双|correct score|doubles|" + r"corners|cards|btts|total sets)\b", re.I) + + +def parse_title(t): + """intl question -> {a, b, kind, line} or None (None = tier-1 only).""" + s = str(t or "") + ou = re.search(r"O/U\s+(\d+(?:\.\d+)?)", s, re.I) + hc = re.search(r"\([+-](\d+(?:\.\d+)?)\)", s) + kind = "totals" if ou else "spreads" if hc else "moneyline" + line = ou.group(1) if ou else (hc.group(1) if hc else None) + if QUAL.search(s): + return None + s = re.sub(r"\(BO\d+\)", " ", s, flags=re.I) + s = re.sub(r"\([+-]?\d+(?:\.\d+)?\)", " ", s) + parts = re.split(r"\svs\.?\s", s, flags=re.I) + if len(parts) < 2: + return None + a = parts[0].split(":", 1)[1] if ":" in parts[0] else parts[0] + # esports format "Counter-Strike: A vs B (BO3) - IEM Cologne Playoffs": + # drop the " - Tournament" tail and any ": qualifier" tail from side b + b = parts[1].split(":")[0].split(" - ")[0] + a, b = norm(a), norm(b) + if not a or not b: + return None + return {"a": a, "b": b, "kind": kind, "line": line} + + +_WINDOWS = {} # (kind, date) -> [{slug, hay}] + + +def us_window(kind, date): + """All US markets listed around (startDate ≈ listing time, + day-of/day-before for game markets), closed ones included.""" + key = (kind, date) + if key in _WINDOWS: + return _WINDOWS[key] + t = time.mktime(time.strptime(date, "%Y-%m-%d")) + iso = lambda x: time.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ", time.gmtime(x)) + lo, hi = iso(t - 2 * 86400), iso(t + 2 * 86400) + out = [] + # Wimbledon-week windows run past 2k moneylines — never truncate silently + for off in range(0, 20000, 100): + d = get(f"{GATEWAY}?marketTypes={kind}&startDateMin={lo}&startDateMax={hi}" + f"&limit=100&offset={off}") + ms = d.get("markets", []) + for m in ms: + out.append({"slug": m["slug"], + "hay": norm(m.get("question", "")) + " " + norm(m["slug"])}) + if len(ms) < 100: + break + _WINDOWS[key] = out + return out + + +def main(): + # the exact bet stream portfolio.py replays (same dedupe: first entry per market) + resolved = pf.window_bets() + opened = pf.open_bets() + by = {} + for b in resolved + opened: + if b.get("cond") and (b["cond"] not in by or b["entry_t"] < by[b["cond"]]["entry_t"]): + by[b["cond"]] = b + conds = list(by) + print(f"[us] {len(conds)} unique markets in the {pf.DAYS}d replay stream", flush=True) + + with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=8) as ex: + list(ex.map(pf.market_meta, conds)) + meta = {c: pf.market_meta(c) for c in conds} + + result = {} + + # ---- tier 1: deterministic prefixed slugs, batched -------------------- + cand = {} # us_slug -> cond + for c in conds: + slug = meta[c]["slug"] + if slug: + cand["aec-" + slug] = c + cand["tec-" + slug] = c + slugs = list(cand) + for i in range(0, len(slugs), 25): + qs = "&".join("slug=" + s for s in slugs[i:i + 25]) + for m in get(f"{GATEWAY}?{qs}&limit=100").get("markets", []): + c = cand.get(m["slug"]) + if c and c not in result: + result[c] = {"listed": True, "us_slug": m["slug"], "how": "slug", + "title": meta[c]["title"]} + print(f"[us] tier 1 (direct slug): {len(result)} listed", flush=True) + + # ---- tier 2: name + date + line --------------------------------------- + t2 = 0 + for c in conds: + if c in result: + continue + title, slug = meta[c]["title"], meta[c]["slug"] + p = parse_title(title) + dm = re.search(r"(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})", slug or "") + if not p or not dm: + result[c] = {"listed": False, "how": "no-parse", "title": title} + continue + hit = None + for m in us_window(p["kind"], dm.group(1)): + if not (name_in(p["a"], m["hay"]) and name_in(p["b"], m["hay"])): + continue + if p["line"] and norm(p["line"]) not in m["hay"]: + continue + hit = m + break + if hit: + t2 += 1 + result[c] = {"listed": True, "us_slug": hit["slug"], "how": "name", + "title": title} + else: + result[c] = {"listed": False, "how": "unmatched", "title": title} + print(f"[us] tier 2 (name+date): {t2} more listed " + f"({len(_WINDOWS)} US windows fetched)", flush=True) + + json.dump(result, open(OUT, "w"), indent=1) + n_listed = sum(1 for v in result.values() if v["listed"]) + print(f"[us] TOTAL: {n_listed}/{len(conds)} replayed markets had a US listing " + f"-> {os.path.basename(OUT)}", flush=True) + + # breakdown by intl slug prefix so we can see WHERE coverage holds + pre = lambda s: (s or "?").split("-")[0] + for label, keep in [("listed", True), ("unlisted", False)]: + ctr = Counter(pre(meta[c]["slug"]) for c, v in result.items() if v["listed"] == keep) + print(f"[us] {label:9s} " + " ".join(f"{k}:{n}" for k, n in ctr.most_common(14)), + flush=True) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/watch.json b/archive/watch.json similarity index 100% rename from watch.json rename to archive/watch.json diff --git a/live/README.md b/live/README.md index 187c9afd..bcc8388e 100644 --- a/live/README.md +++ b/live/README.md @@ -40,8 +40,8 @@ underdog/longshot prices — the copyable alpha), `balanced`, or `favorite` | sharps | `conviction_scan.py` + `validate_timing.py` | conviction-profile scan → copy-positive-holder selection → `watch_sharps.json` (see "The repeatable find") | | portfolio | `portfolio.py` | $1k paper book off the cache → `portfolio.json` (see "Paper portfolio") | | dashboard | `dashboard.py` | self-contained `dashboard.html` — sortable, archetype-tagged, live recent-trade lookup | -| backtest | `backtest_june.py [arch]` | copy an archetype's June-1+ entries, $1000, no lag → P&L | -| clean test | `clean_test.sh` | **the honest test**: re-select on pre-June-1 data only, then backtest June-1+ forward | +| backtest | `../archive/live-research/backtest_june.py [arch]` | copy an archetype's June-1+ entries, $1000, no lag → P&L (archived 2026-07-06 with the rest of the June research layer) | +| clean test | `../archive/live-research/clean_test.sh` | **the honest test**: re-select on pre-June-1 data only, then backtest June-1+ forward | ## The cache is the point @@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ turn into losers out-of-sample. **Don't copy favorite-riders.** The `value` archetype (beats underdog prices) is where real alpha may live — test it with `backtest_june.py value`. -## Strategy backtests +## Strategy backtests (June research layer — archived to `../archive/live-research/` 2026-07-06) - `strategy.py` — train (pre-May-30) / test (June1+) wallet selection on copy-ROI + z + monthly consistency + diversification. → `selection.json`. diff --git a/live/portfolio.py b/live/portfolio.py index 9526c747..de926b76 100644 --- a/live/portfolio.py +++ b/live/portfolio.py @@ -251,6 +251,19 @@ def main(): b["kind"] = "open"; by_mkt[b["cond"]] = b stream = sorted(by_mkt.values(), key=lambda b: b["entry_t"]) + # ONLY_CONDS=: replay only these markets — {cond: bool} or + # us_listable.py's {cond: {"listed": bool, ...}}. Models "same signal, but + # I can only execute the subset" (e.g. bets also listed on Polymarket US); + # thresholds/sizing still come from the full signal, capital only chases + # the executable bets. + _only = os.environ.get("ONLY_CONDS") + if _only: + _allow = {c for c, v in json.load(open(_only)).items() + if (v.get("listed") if isinstance(v, dict) else v)} + _pre = len(stream) + stream = [b for b in stream if b["cond"] in _allow] + print(f"portfolio: ONLY_CONDS filter kept {len(stream)}/{_pre} bets", flush=True) + # prefetch every replayed market's slug (threaded; disk-cached) so the # event-correlation cap can group markets by real-world event with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=8) as ex: