feat: add bench review workflow + wallet setup script + sync-upstream fix
- live/setup_wallets.py: configures our 8 follow wallets with Kruto2027 floor_pin=80 (matching author), plus prints bench status - 每周Bench-Review流程.md: weekly Friday review process using 5 dimensions (forward P&L, copy_pnl, conv_win, seasonal catalyst, floor stability) with promote/demote/pin commands - sync-upstream.sh: recreated with all our custom files including new ones (sync_live_floors.py, setup_wallets.py, bench review doc) - copybot.paper.json: our 8 wallets with Kruto2027 floor_pin=80 bench area (backtest.json) already has 15 wallets from author sync: live: 8 (Kruto2027, 0xbadaf319, 1kto1m, Vahan88, LSB1, EdwardIN, lma0o0o0o, Coteykens) bench: 7 (gkmgkldfmg, AIcAIc, BikesAreTheBikes, imwalkinghere, leegunner, oliman2, JuiceFarm, 0xb0E43B)
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# 每周 Bench Review 流程
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> 跟原作者的方法论一致：每周五对跟单钱包和 bench 观察区钱包做前瞻盈亏 review，决定晋升/降级。
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>
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> 原作者的原话（HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md）：forward table = portfolio.py resolved rows, two windows: since last review and since the last swap.
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---
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## 为什么要每周 review
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watch_sharps.json 的 copy_pnl 是 **in-sample**（用历史数据算的），只能告诉你"过去跟这个钱包赚没赚"。但市场在变，钱包的表现也会变。
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**前瞻盈亏（Forward P&L）** 是 out-of-sample 的：看"从某个时间点开始，这个钱包的信念单实际赚了多少"。这才是决定留还是踢的真实依据。
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---
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## review 时间
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**每周五**（跟作者一样）。可以在 1Panel 加一个定时提醒。
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---
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## review 步骤
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### 第 1 步：跑回测（在服务器上）
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```bash
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cd /opt/winning-wallet-finder/live
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# 跑 30 天回测（包含 live 8 个 + bench 8 个，共 16 个钱包）
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python3 portfolio.py --days 30
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# 看回测结果
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python3 -c "
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import json
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d = json.load(open('portfolio.json'))
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print(f'总体: equity \${d[\"equity\"]:,.0f} | realized \${d[\"realized\"]:+,.0f} | {d[\"resolved\"]} resolved')
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"
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```
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### 第 2 步：看每个钱包的前瞻表现
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```bash
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# 看回测里每个钱包的盈亏
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python3 -c "
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import json
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d = json.load(open('portfolio.json'))
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wallets = {}
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for b in d.get('bets', []):
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name = b.get('name', '?')
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if name not in wallets:
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wallets[name] = {'n': 0, 'pnl': 0, 'wins': 0}
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wallets[name]['n'] += 1
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wallets[name]['pnl'] += b.get('pnl', 0)
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if b.get('pnl', 0) > 0:
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wallets[name]['wins'] += 1
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# 按 pnl 排序
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for name, stats in sorted(wallets.items(), key=lambda x: x[1]['pnl'], reverse=True):
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wr = stats['wins']/stats['n']*100 if stats['n'] > 0 else 0
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print(f'{name:20s} {stats[\"n\"]:3d} bets pnl \${stats[\"pnl\"]:+8.2f} 胜率 {wr:.0f}%')
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"
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```
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### 第 3 步：对比 live vs bench
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```bash
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# 当前跟的 8 个
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python3 -c "import json; [print(w['name']) for w in json.load(open('copybot.paper.json'))['wallets']]"
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# bench 观察区的（backtest.json 里有但 copybot.paper.json 里没有的）
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python3 -c "
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import json
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live = {w['wallet'].lower() for w in json.load(open('copybot.paper.json'))['wallets']}
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bt = json.load(open('backtest.json'))
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bench = [w.get('name', w['wallet'][:10]) for w in bt['wallets'] if w['wallet'].lower() not in live]
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print('bench:', ', '.join(bench))
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"
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```
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### 第 4 步：决策（5 个维度）
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对照 5 个维度做决策：
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| 维度 | 怎么看 | 晋升条件 | 降级条件 |
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|------|--------|---------|---------|
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| **前瞻盈亏** | 第 2 步的 per-wallet pnl | 正盈亏 | 负盈亏（连续 2 周） |
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| **copy_pnl** | `cat watch_sharps.json \| grep copy_pnl` | 排名靠前 | 跌出 watch_sharps |
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| **信念胜率** | `cat watch_sharps.json \| grep conv_win` | >60% | <30% |
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| **季节性** | 看钱包的 niche 有没有赛季/事件 | 赛季开始 | 赛季结束 |
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| **floor 稳定** | `cat copybot.paper.json \| grep floor` | 正常 | p80 漂移太大需 pin |
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### 第 5 步：执行变更
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**晋升**（bench -> live）：
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```bash
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cd /opt/winning-wallet-finder
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python3 -c "
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import json
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# 把 bench 钱包加到 copybot.paper.json 和 config.live.json
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promote_name = 'AIcAIc' # 改成你要晋升的钱包
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# 从 backtest.json 查地址
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bt = json.load(open('live/backtest.json'))
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promote = next((w for w in bt['wallets'] if w.get('name') == promote_name), None)
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if not promote:
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print(f'{promote_name} not found in backtest.json')
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exit(1)
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# 加到 paper 和 live
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for path in ['live/copybot.paper.json', 'config.live.json']:
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cfg = json.load(open(path))
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if not any(w['wallet'].lower() == promote['wallet'].lower() for w in cfg['wallets']):
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w = {'wallet': promote['wallet'], 'name': promote['name'],
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'class': 'volume', 'floor': 25.0}
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cfg['wallets'].append(w)
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json.dump(cfg, open(path, 'w'), indent=2)
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print(f'{path}: added {promote_name}')
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else:
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print(f'{path}: {promote_name} already there')
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"
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chown wwf:wwf live/copybot.paper.json config.live.json
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systemctl restart copybot-paper copybot-live
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```
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**降级**（live -> bench）：
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```bash
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cd /opt/winning-wallet-finder
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python3 -c "
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import json
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demote_name = 'BikesAreTheBikes' # 改成你要降级的钱包
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for path in ['live/copybot.paper.json', 'config.live.json']:
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cfg = json.load(open(path))
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old = [w['name'] for w in cfg['wallets']]
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cfg['wallets'] = [w for w in cfg['wallets'] if w['name'] != demote_name]
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new = [w['name'] for w in cfg['wallets']]
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json.dump(cfg, open(path, 'w'), indent=2)
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print(f'{path}: {old} -> {new}')
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"
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chown wwf:wwf live/copybot.paper.json config.live.json
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systemctl restart copybot-paper copybot-live
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```
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> 降级的钱包留在 backtest.json 里继续观察（不用删），下周 review 还能看到它的前瞻表现。
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### 第 6 步：钉死 floor_pin（如果需要）
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如果某个钱包的 p80 漂移太大（sync_floors.py 警告 `⚠ floor X->Y`），钉死它：
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```bash
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python3 -c "
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import json
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pin_name = 'Kruto2027' # 要钉的钱包
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pin_value = 80.0 # 钉死的值
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for path in ['live/copybot.paper.json', 'config.live.json']:
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cfg = json.load(open(path))
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for w in cfg['wallets']:
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if w['name'] == pin_name:
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w['floor'] = pin_value
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w['floor_pin'] = pin_value
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print(f'{path}: {pin_name} floor_pin = {pin_value}')
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json.dump(cfg, open(path, 'w'), indent=2)
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"
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chown wwf:wwf live/copybot.paper.json config.live.json
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systemctl restart copybot-paper copybot-live
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```
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---
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## 当前状态
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### live 跟单（8 个）
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| 钱包 | floor | floor_pin | niche |
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|------|-------|-----------|-------|
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| Kruto2027 | $80 | ✅ 80 | 综合 |
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| 0xbadaf319 | $42 | - | 综合 |
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| 1kto1m | $332 | - | BTC Up/Down |
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| Vahan88 | $245 | - | 板球/体育 |
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| LSB1 | $315 | - | 瑞典足球 |
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| EdwardIN | $25 | - | 待观察 |
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| lma0o0o0o | $25 | - | 待观察 |
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| Coteykens | $25 | - | 待观察 |
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### bench 观察（8 个）
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| 钱包 | 状态 | 备注 |
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|------|------|------|
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| gkmgkldfmg | 被淘汰 | daily.sh 已移出 watch_sharps |
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| AIcAIc | 观察 | 作者 07-16 重新加入（电竞赛季） |
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| BikesAreTheBikes | 观察 | 信念胜率 21% 偏低 |
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| imwalkinghere | 永久排除 | 5min BTC 市场，结算比跟单快 |
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| leegunner | 新候选 | 作者 bench rev 5 新加 |
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| oliman2 | 新候选 | 作者 bench rev 5 新加 |
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| JuiceFarm | 新候选 | 作者 bench rev 5 新加 |
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| 0xb0E43B | 新候选 | 作者 bench rev 5 新加 |
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---
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## 1Panel 快速命令
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**每周 review 一键跑回测 + 看排名**：
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```bash
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cd /opt/winning-wallet-finder/live && python3 portfolio.py --days 30 && python3 -c "
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import json
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d = json.load(open('portfolio.json'))
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wallets = {}
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for b in d.get('bets', []):
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name = b.get('name', '?')
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if name not in wallets:
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wallets[name] = {'n': 0, 'pnl': 0, 'wins': 0}
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wallets[name]['n'] += 1
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wallets[name]['pnl'] += b.get('pnl', 0)
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if b.get('pnl', 0) > 0:
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wallets[name]['wins'] += 1
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print('=== 前瞻盈亏排名 ===')
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for name, stats in sorted(wallets.items(), key=lambda x: x[1]['pnl'], reverse=True):
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wr = stats['wins']/stats['n']*100 if stats['n'] > 0 else 0
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print(f'{name:20s} {stats[\"n\"]:3d} bets pnl \${stats[\"pnl\"]:+8.2f} 胜率 {wr:.0f}%')
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"
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```
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