Add live/ skilled-wallet scanner + cache; document clean OOS finding

live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live
data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool;
cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets,
keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate
skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard +
daily refresh.

Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6%
in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68%
win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert"
result on live data. Win rate != edge, again.

wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets),
but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only.

Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored.
README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

.gitignore

@@ -24,3 +24,12 @@ watcher_state.json
 huntwide.csv
 oos.log
 hunt.log
+
+# live/ + wide/ — large local data + regenerable artifacts
+*.duckdb
+*.duckdb.wal
+live/candidates.json
+live/scored.json
+live/*_scored.json
+live/watch_prejune*.json
+live/history/