rename timing "insider" verdict -> "last-minute" (honest label)

The lead-time gate in validate_timing.py is a COPYABILITY heuristic, not
proof of inside information: a short entry->resolution lead can be a
genuine insider OR just someone who trades fast-resolving markets (live
sports, hourly) well — indistinguishable, and irrelevant for copy
purposes since either way the window is too tight to mirror. Rename the
verdict accordingly. Gate unchanged (median lead >=24h to count as a
copyable sharp; 50 sharps). Docs updated to current p80 numbers
(218 profile matches, 62/83 forward-profitable, 50 sharps).

The genuine insider-detection scanner (insider.py, z-score / Bubblemaps
fingerprint) keeps its name — that's a different, correctly-named thing.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
2026-06-22 14:55:43 -06:00
parent 1cbe1a67b9
commit 2ee8e79d00
4 changed files with 32 additions and 22 deletions
+4 -3
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@@ -194,9 +194,10 @@ win rate ≠ edge, again. (The `value`/longshot archetype — wallets that beat
**What does work (the repeatable find).** Scoring wallets on their **high-
conviction bets — the top 20% by stake size (per-wallet p80, not a flat $200)** —
which win 7080% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.40.6)
markets — trained pre-June and validated June: **25/37 stayed profitable forward
(p=0.024)**. A lead-time gate (`validate_timing.py`) then drops the ~30% that are
uncopyable insiders (entry <6h before resolution), leaving **23 validated
markets — trained pre-June and validated June: **62/83 stayed profitable forward
(p≈0)**. A lead-time gate (`validate_timing.py`) then drops wallets whose wins come
too close to resolution to mirror — "last-minute" entries (median lead <24h), which
may be genuine insiders or just fast-market specialists — leaving **50 validated
copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`), surfaced live on
[jaxperro.com/trading](https://jaxperro.com/trading). One held **80% win over
1,017 forward bets**. This is the strongest evidence in the project that