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rename timing "insider" verdict -> "last-minute" (honest label)

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The lead-time gate in validate_timing.py is a COPYABILITY heuristic, not
proof of inside information: a short entry->resolution lead can be a
genuine insider OR just someone who trades fast-resolving markets (live
sports, hourly) well — indistinguishable, and irrelevant for copy
purposes since either way the window is too tight to mirror. Rename the
verdict accordingly. Gate unchanged (median lead >=24h to count as a
copyable sharp; 50 sharps). Docs updated to current p80 numbers
(218 profile matches, 62/83 forward-profitable, 50 sharps).

The genuine insider-detection scanner (insider.py, z-score / Bubblemaps
fingerprint) keeps its name — that's a different, correctly-named thing.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
jaxperro
2026-06-22 14:55:43 -06:00
parent 1cbe1a67b9
commit 2ee8e79d00
4 changed files with 32 additions and 22 deletions
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FINDINGS.md
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@@ -179,17 +179,21 @@ validate June) under p80 finds **218 wallets** matching the profile; forward,
(The original flat-$200 run found 69 wallets, 25/37 forward, +11.7%.)
Then the decisive copyability filter, `live/validate_timing.py`: a near-100% win
rate is either foresight (copyable) or last-second information (uncopyable). The
tell is **entry->resolution lead time on winning conviction bets**. Of the 69,
**21 were insiders** (median lead < 6h — you can't mirror them), leaving **23
validated copyable sharps** (`watch_sharps.json`) with multi-day leads. The
standout `0x60ec1744…` held 80% win over **1,017 forward conviction bets**; even
the suspiciously-perfect `0x72e1…` (99/100% win) enters ~7 days early — a real
forecaster, not an insider. These 23 are surfaced live on jaxperro.com/trading.
rate is only useful if we can mirror it. The tell is **entry->resolution lead
time on winning conviction bets** — this is a copyability heuristic, NOT proof of
inside information (a short lead can be a genuine insider or just someone good at
fast-resolving markets; we can't tell, and for copy purposes it doesn't matter).
Of the 218, the gate drops the **"last-minute" wallets** (median lead <24h — you
can't get the trade in before resolution), leaving **50 validated copyable sharps**
(`watch_sharps.json`) with multi-day leads. The standout `0x60ec1744…` held 80%
win over **1,017 forward conviction bets**; even the suspiciously-perfect `0x72e1…`
(99/100% win) enters ~7 days early — a real forecaster, clearly not last-minute.
These 50 are surfaced live on jaxperro.com/trading.
*Lesson: score conviction bets, not all bets; require avg entry ~0.4-0.6 (edge,
not favorites); and gate on lead time to drop insiders. That funnel produces a
copyable, forward-validated set — the strongest evidence in this project that
not favorites); and gate on lead time to drop last-minute (un-mirrorable) wallets.
That funnel produces a copyable, forward-validated set — the strongest evidence in
this project that
followable skill exists.*
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