winning-wallet-finder/copybot.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""copybot.py — push-driven, live-capable Polymarket copy-trader.

Marries the two halves you already built:

  * webhook_receiver.py's **push** trigger — Alchemy's Address-Activity webhook
    POSTs here the instant a watched wallet transacts on Polygon. No polling.
  * archive/copytrade.py's hardened **execution engine** — paper + live
    (py-clob-client) executor, the full risk-block gates, price guard,
    no-backfill seeding, and proportional entry/exit mirroring.

Flow:
    Alchemy POST /alchemy
        → enrich the tx via the Polymarket data-API (market, side, price, size)
        → FollowFilter  — the "only the trades I actually want" gate
        → CopyTrader.handle_trade  — sizes + places under every risk cap

The execution engine is unchanged; this file only swaps the *trigger* from a
poll loop to a push, and inserts the follow-filter in front of it.

SAFETY — paper by default. Live trading needs ALL of:
    1. "mode": "live" in config.json,
    2. the --live flag,
    3. typing the confirmation phrase when prompted,
    4. py-clob-client installed + live creds in config "live".
The same hard caps (per-trade / daily / exposure / open positions / price band)
apply in both modes. This is real money in live mode.

Endpoints (stdlib http server, binds $PORT or 8080):
    POST /alchemy   ← point the Alchemy webhook here
    GET  /health    ← uptime check

Usage:
    python3 copybot.py                       # paper, listen for webhooks
    python3 copybot.py --conviction-from-sharps live/watch_sharps.json
    python3 copybot.py --test-wallet 0x..    # dry-run the pipeline on a wallet's
                                             #   latest trade, then exit (no server)
    python3 copybot.py --live                # live (needs mode:live + confirm)
"""

import argparse
import hashlib
import hmac
import json
import os
import sys
import threading
import time
import urllib.request
from http.server import BaseHTTPRequestHandler, ThreadingHTTPServer

# reuse the proven execution engine as a library (kept in archive/)
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "archive"))
from copytrade import (  # noqa: E402
    CopyTrader, PaperExecutor, LiveExecutor, DEFAULT_CONFIG,
    load_json, save_json, new_state, recent_trades, post_discord, confirm_live,
)
from smart_money import SSL_CTX  # noqa: E402

CLOB_API = "https://clob.polymarket.com"

# follow-filter defaults — merged under cfg["follow"]; permissive so nothing is
# silently dropped until you opt in. The engine's risk caps bound everything
# regardless of these.
FOLLOW_DEFAULT = {
    "buy_only": True,          # SELLs only ever close a position we already hold
    "min_their_usd": 0.0,      # global conviction floor: ignore their bets below this
    "per_wallet_min_usd": {},  # {wallet: usd} — overrides the global floor per wallet
    "min_entry": 0.0,          # only copy entries with their fill price in this band
    "max_entry": 1.0,          #   (the archetype/copyability zone; 0.35–0.70 = value)
}

RECENT_TRADE_WINDOW_S = 600    # webhook just told us a trade happened; ignore stale
FILL_LOG = "copybot_fills.jsonl"          # append-only ledger of every copy fill + lag/slippage
FEED = os.path.join("live", "copybot_live.json")   # published feed the trading dashboard reads
FEED_PUSH_MIN_S = 120                     # min seconds between feed git-pushes (commit-on-change)

# Polymarket taker fee (Fee Structure V2, live since 2026-03-30):
#   fee = shares × rate × p × (1−p)
# charged on marketable BUYs and SELLs (we always take — FOK/market copies);
# redeeming a resolved position on-chain is fee-free. Rate is per market
# category — sports 0.03, finance/politics/tech 0.04, econ/culture/weather 0.05,
# crypto 0.07, geopolitics 0. The follow set is currently all-sports; override
# with "taker_fee_rate" in config.json if that changes.
TAKER_FEE_RATE = 0.03


def taker_fee(shares, price, rate):
    return shares * rate * price * (1.0 - price)


def log(m):
    print(f"{time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')}  {m}", flush=True)


# ── market resolution lookup (for settling held positions at resolution) ─────

_MKT_CACHE = {}                 # cond -> market dict, cached only once resolved
_MKT_LOCK = threading.Lock()


def _market(cond):
    with _MKT_LOCK:
        if cond in _MKT_CACHE:
            return _MKT_CACHE[cond]
    try:
        req = urllib.request.Request(f"{CLOB_API}/markets/{cond}",
                                     headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"})
        with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=12, context=SSL_CTX) as r:
            m = json.loads(r.read().decode()) or {}
    except Exception:
        return None
    # only cache a resolved market (it won't change); re-check live ones each pass
    if any(t.get("winner") in (True, False) for t in (m.get("tokens") or [])):
        with _MKT_LOCK:
            _MKT_CACHE[cond] = m
    return m


def market_tokens(cond):
    m = _market(cond)
    return (m.get("tokens") or []) if m else None


def market_neg_risk(cond):
    """True if the market settles through the Neg-Risk adapter (different redeem
    path). Best-effort from the CLOB market metadata."""
    m = _market(cond)
    return bool(m.get("neg_risk")) if m else False


def resolution_price(token_id, cond, outcome=None):
    """Settled price of our held token: 1.0 if it won, 0.0 if it lost, None if the
    market hasn't resolved yet. Matches by outcome first (as the dashboard does),
    then by token_id."""
    toks = market_tokens(cond)
    if not toks:
        return None

    def winp(t):
        w = t.get("winner")
        return 1.0 if w is True else 0.0 if w is False else None

    if outcome is not None:
        for t in toks:
            if t.get("outcome") == outcome:
                return winp(t)
    for t in toks:
        if str(t.get("token_id")) == str(token_id):
            return winp(t)
    return None


class LedgerPaperExecutor(PaperExecutor):
    """Paper executor that records each fill (side/token/shares/price), so the run
    can track free cash, realized P&L, and lag/slippage. Paper fills at the live
    CLOB price the engine fetched — already capturing detection + price-drift lag,
    unlike the dashboard's zero-lag assumption."""

    def __init__(self):
        self.fills = []          # [{side, token, shares, price}] since last drain

    def buy(self, token_id, shares, price, meta):
        r = super().buy(token_id, shares, price, meta)
        self.fills.append({"side": "BUY", "token": token_id,
                           "shares": r["filled_shares"], "price": r["price"]})
        return r

    def sell(self, token_id, shares, price, meta):
        r = super().sell(token_id, shares, price, meta)
        self.fills.append({"side": "SELL", "token": token_id,
                           "shares": r["filled_shares"], "price": r["price"]})
        return r


class LedgerLiveExecutor(LiveExecutor):
    """Live executor with two production fixes over the base GTC executor:

      * **Marketable Fill-Or-Kill orders** (gap 3) — a copy either fills
        immediately at a crossing price or is cleanly killed, never left resting
        on the book half-filled. Order type is configurable (live.order_type:
        FOK all-or-nothing, or FAK fill-what-you-can-then-kill).
      * **Fill recording** — same ledger as paper, so cash/lag/slippage tracking
        works live too. filled_shares comes from the match response when present.
    """

    def __init__(self, cfg):
        super().__init__(cfg)
        self.fills = []
        name = cfg.get("live", {}).get("order_type", "FOK").upper()
        self._otype = getattr(self._OrderType, name, self._OrderType.FOK)

    def _order(self, token_id, shares, price, side):
        args = self._OrderArgs(price=round(price, 3), size=round(shares, 2),
                               side=side, token_id=token_id)
        signed = self.client.create_order(args)
        resp = self.client.post_order(signed, self._otype)     # marketable FOK/FAK
        ok = bool(resp and resp.get("success", True))
        filled = shares if ok else 0.0
        for k in ("sizeMatched", "size_matched", "makingAmount"):   # use real fill if reported
            if resp and resp.get(k):
                try:
                    filled = float(resp[k]); break
                except (TypeError, ValueError):
                    pass
        return {"ok": ok and filled > 0, "filled_shares": filled, "price": price,
                "resp": resp, "paper": False}

    def buy(self, token_id, shares, price, meta):
        r = self._order(token_id, shares, price, self._BUY)
        if r["ok"]:
            self.fills.append({"side": "BUY", "token": token_id,
                               "shares": r["filled_shares"], "price": r["price"]})
        return r

    def sell(self, token_id, shares, price, meta):
        r = self._order(token_id, shares, price, self._SELL)
        if r["ok"]:
            self.fills.append({"side": "SELL", "token": token_id,
                               "shares": r["filled_shares"], "price": r["price"]})
        return r


# ── follow-filter — "just the ones I want to follow" ────────────────────────

class FollowFilter:
    """Decides whether one of their trades is worth handing to the engine.

    This is the selection gate that sits in front of execution. A BUY must be in
    your follow set, clear the conviction (stake-size) floor, and land in the
    entry-price band. A SELL always passes — the engine then mirrors it only if
    we actually hold the token.
    """

    def __init__(self, cfg):
        f = {**FOLLOW_DEFAULT, **cfg.get("follow", {})}
        self.buy_only = f["buy_only"]
        self.min_their_usd = float(f["min_their_usd"])
        self.per_wallet = {k.lower(): float(v) for k, v in f["per_wallet_min_usd"].items()}
        self.min_entry = float(f["min_entry"])
        self.max_entry = float(f["max_entry"])
        wl = cfg.get("watchlist") or [w["wallet"] for w in cfg.get("watch", [])]
        self.wallets = {w.lower() for w in wl}

    def floor(self, wallet):
        return self.per_wallet.get(wallet.lower(), self.min_their_usd)

    def check(self, wallet, t):
        """-> (follow: bool, reason_if_skipped: str|None)."""
        if wallet.lower() not in self.wallets:
            return False, "wallet not in follow set"
        side = t.get("side")
        if side == "SELL":
            return True, None                       # engine exits only if we hold
        if side != "BUY":
            return False, f"side {side}"
        usd = t.get("usdcSize") or t.get("size", 0) * t.get("price", 0)
        fl = self.floor(wallet)
        if usd < fl:
            return False, f"${usd:,.0f} < conviction floor ${fl:,.0f}"
        p = t.get("price", 0)
        if not (self.min_entry <= p <= self.max_entry):
            return False, f"entry {p:.2f} outside [{self.min_entry:.2f},{self.max_entry:.2f}]"
        return True, None

    def describe(self):
        pw = f" · {len(self.per_wallet)} per-wallet floors" if self.per_wallet else ""
        return (f"follow filter · {'BUY-only' if self.buy_only else 'BUY+SELL'} · "
                f"conviction ≥ ${self.min_their_usd:,.0f}{pw} · "
                f"entry [{self.min_entry:.2f},{self.max_entry:.2f}]")


# ── the push → filter → execute bridge ──────────────────────────────────────

class Copybot:
    def __init__(self, cfg, engine, filt, redeemer=None):
        self.cfg = cfg
        self.engine = engine
        self.filt = filt
        self.redeemer = redeemer       # gap 2: on-chain redeem of resolved positions (live)
        # webhook from env (so a scheduled runner can inject it as a secret) or config
        self.webhook = os.environ.get("DISCORD_WEBHOOK") or cfg.get("discord_webhook", "")
        self.names = {}
        for w in cfg.get("watch", []):
            self.names[w["wallet"].lower()] = w.get("name", w["wallet"][:10])
        self.skipped = set()       # tx we've already evaluated-and-skipped (no re-log)
        self.negrisk_warned = set()    # conds we've already warned need manual redeem
        self.lock = threading.Lock()   # serialize engine/settle access (webhook is threaded)
        self.here = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
        # persisted across restarts via the engine's state file
        self.conds = engine.state.setdefault("conds", {})   # token_id -> conditionId (open positions)
        engine.state.setdefault("cash", cfg["bankroll_usd"])  # free cash (recycles on sell/resolution)
        engine.state.setdefault("lag", {"n": 0, "sum_s": 0.0, "sum_slip_pct": 0.0})
        engine.state.setdefault("fees_paid", 0.0)
        self.fee_rate = float(cfg.get("taker_fee_rate", TAKER_FEE_RATE))

    def _drain_fills(self):
        """Apply cash flows from any fills the engine just made; return the BUY
        fills so the caller can log lag/slippage against the source trade.
        Every marketable fill (buy or sell) pays the taker fee — in live mode the
        protocol charges it at match time, so the paper book must charge it too or
        it overstates the edge."""
        ex = self.engine.ex
        buys = []
        if hasattr(ex, "fills") and ex.fills:
            for f in ex.fills:
                sign = -1 if f["side"] == "BUY" else 1
                fee = taker_fee(f["shares"], f["price"], self.fee_rate)
                f["fee"] = round(fee, 4)
                self.engine.state["cash"] += sign * f["shares"] * f["price"] - fee
                self.engine.state["fees_paid"] = self.engine.state.get("fees_paid", 0.0) + fee
                if f["side"] == "BUY":
                    buys.append(f)
            ex.fills.clear()
        return buys

    def _record_lag(self, wallet, t, fill):
        """Gap 1 — log the detection lag and price slippage of a copy: their fill
        time/price vs ours. Appends to copybot_fills.jsonl and tracks running
        averages for the summary, so the live cost of lag is measurable."""
        now = time.time()
        their_ts = t.get("timestamp", 0) or 0
        detect_s = (now - their_ts) if their_ts else None
        their_p = t.get("price", 0) or 0
        my_p = fill["price"]
        slip_pct = (my_p - their_p) / their_p if their_p else 0.0
        rec = {
            "ts": round(now, 1), "wallet": wallet,
            "name": self.names.get(wallet.lower(), wallet[:10]),
            "outcome": t.get("outcome"), "title": (t.get("title") or "")[:80],
            "detect_lag_s": round(detect_s, 1) if detect_s is not None else None,
            "their_price": round(their_p, 4), "my_price": round(my_p, 4),
            "slippage_pct": round(slip_pct, 4),
            "shares": round(fill["shares"], 2), "cost": round(fill["shares"] * my_p, 2),
            "fee": fill.get("fee", 0),
            "mode": "live" if self.engine.ex.live else "paper",
        }
        try:
            with open(os.path.join(self.here, FILL_LOG), "a") as fh:
                fh.write(json.dumps(rec) + "\n")
        except Exception:
            pass
        if detect_s is not None:
            lag = self.engine.state["lag"]
            lag["n"] += 1
            lag["sum_s"] += detect_s
            lag["sum_slip_pct"] += slip_pct
        # record the placed bet for the live dashboard feed
        self.engine.state.setdefault("bets", {})[fill["token"]] = {
            "token": fill["token"], "wallet": wallet,
            "name": self.names.get(wallet.lower(), wallet[:10]),
            "outcome": t.get("outcome"), "title": (t.get("title") or "")[:90],
            "their_price": round(their_p, 4), "my_price": round(my_p, 4),
            "slippage_pct": round(slip_pct, 4),
            "shares": round(fill["shares"], 2), "cost": round(fill["shares"] * my_p, 2),
            "fee": fill.get("fee", 0),
            "opened": int(their_ts or now), "status": "open",
            "exit_price": None, "pnl": None, "settled": None,
        }
        log(f"  ↳ lag {('%.0fs' % detect_s) if detect_s is not None else '?'} · "
            f"their {their_p:.3f} → mine {my_p:.3f} ({slip_pct:+.1%} slippage)")

    def write_feed(self):
        """Publish the bot's live book to live/copybot_live.json — the feed the
        top of jaxperro.com/trading reads. Reconciles any open bet no longer held
        (mirror-sold) to 'closed'."""
        st = self.engine.state
        bets = st.setdefault("bets", {})
        mp = st["my_pos"]
        for tok, b in bets.items():
            if b["status"] == "open" and tok not in mp:
                b["status"] = "closed"
                b["settled"] = b["settled"] or int(time.time())
        bank = self.cfg["bankroll_usd"]
        exp = self.engine.open_exposure()
        cash = st.get("cash", bank)
        lag = st.get("lag", {})
        feed = {
            "mode": "live" if self.engine.ex.live else "paper",
            "bankroll": bank, "stake": round(self.engine.stake_usd(), 2),
            "stake_pct": self.cfg["bankroll_pct"],
            "event_cap": self.engine.risk.get("max_per_event"),
            "hwm": round(st.get("hwm", 0.0), 2),
            "cash": round(cash, 2), "deployed": round(exp, 2),
            "realized": round(cash + exp - bank, 2), "open_count": len(mp),
            "fees_paid": round(st.get("fees_paid", 0.0), 2),
            "fee_rate": self.fee_rate,
            "lag": {"n": lag.get("n", 0),
                    "avg_s": round(lag["sum_s"] / lag["n"], 1) if lag.get("n") else None,
                    "avg_slip_pct": round(lag["sum_slip_pct"] / lag["n"], 4) if lag.get("n") else None},
            "wallets": [w.get("name", w["wallet"][:10]) for w in self.cfg.get("watch", [])],
            "bets": sorted(bets.values(),
                           key=lambda b: b.get("settled") or b.get("opened") or 0,
                           reverse=True)[:100],
        }
        # only (re)write — and so only commit — when the meaningful content changed,
        # not on every poll. The "updated" stamp advances only on real change, so the
        # scheduled runner doesn't spam a commit every 5 minutes.
        sig = hashlib.md5(json.dumps(feed, sort_keys=True).encode()).hexdigest()
        if sig == self.engine.state.get("feed_sig"):
            return
        self.engine.state["feed_sig"] = sig
        feed["updated"] = int(time.time())
        path = os.path.join(self.here, FEED)
        os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True)
        tmp = path + ".tmp"
        json.dump(feed, open(tmp, "w"), indent=1)
        os.replace(tmp, path)

    def publish_feed(self):
        """Commit + push the feed, the state file, and the fills ledger so (a) the
        public dashboard reads the current book, (b) the book survives machine
        loss, and (c) the per-fill lag/slippage evidence is preserved — the Actions
        runner used to discard copybot_fills.jsonl on every run. Committing state
        here (not just the feed) also keeps `git pull --rebase` from wedging on a
        dirty tracked file now that this local poller is the sole runner.
        Throttled and commit-on-change. Best-effort — never crashes the run."""
        st = self.engine.state
        now = time.time()
        if now - st.get("feed_pushed_at", 0) < FEED_PUSH_MIN_S:
            return
        st["feed_pushed_at"] = now
        try:
            import subprocess
            repo = self.here
            # publish only when the FEED itself changed (a bet placed/settled) —
            # the state file churns bookkeeping every cycle and would otherwise
            # commit every FEED_PUSH_MIN_S forever.
            if subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "diff", "--quiet", "--", FEED],
                              capture_output=True).returncode == 0:
                return
            paths = [p for p in (FEED, self.engine.state_path, FILL_LOG)
                     if os.path.exists(os.path.join(repo, p))]
            subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "add", "-f"] + paths, capture_output=True)
            if subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "diff", "--cached", "--quiet"],
                              capture_output=True).returncode == 0:
                return                                  # nothing changed
            c = subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "commit", "-q", "-m",
                                "copybot: live paper feed [skip ci]"],
                               capture_output=True, text=True)
            if c.returncode != 0:
                return
            subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "pull", "--rebase", "--autostash", "-q",
                            "origin", "main"], capture_output=True)
            p = subprocess.run(["git", "-C", repo, "push", "-q", "origin", "main"],
                               capture_output=True, text=True)
            log("published live feed → dashboard" if p.returncode == 0
                else "feed push failed (will retry next change)")
        except Exception as e:
            log(f"feed publish error: {e}")

    def seed(self):
        """Load each watched wallet's current positions so exits mirror correctly
        and we never backfill a position they held before we started."""
        for wallet in self.cfg.get("watchlist", []):
            self.engine.seed_wallet(wallet)

    def baseline(self):
        """Mark every currently-visible trade as already seen, so a poll run only
        copies trades that happen AFTER startup (the forward equivalent of the
        dashboard's June-1 START — no retro-copying of history)."""
        n = 0
        for wallet in self.cfg.get("watchlist", []):
            for t in recent_trades(wallet):
                tx = t.get("transactionHash")
                if tx and tx not in self.engine.seen:
                    self.engine.seen.add(tx)
                    n += 1
        self.engine.persist()
        log(f"baseline: {n} existing trades marked seen — copying only NEW trades from now")

    def summary(self, cycle):
        bank = self.cfg["bankroll_usd"]
        stake = self.engine.stake_usd()       # dynamic: pct of current equity
        exp = self.engine.open_exposure()
        cash = self.engine.state.get("cash", bank)
        realized = cash + exp - bank          # see _drain_fills / settle_resolved
        n = len(self.engine.state["my_pos"])
        lag = self.engine.state.get("lag", {})
        lagstr = ""
        if lag.get("n"):
            lagstr = (f" · {lag['n']} copies avg lag {lag['sum_s']/lag['n']:.0f}s "
                      f"slip {lag['sum_slip_pct']/lag['n']:+.1%}")
        log(f"[{cycle}] open {n} · deployed ${exp:,.0f} · free ${cash:,.0f}/${bank:,.0f} "
            f"· realized ${realized:+,.2f}{lagstr}"
            + (f" · CAN'T OPEN (free < ${stake:,.0f} stake — bets missed)"
               if cash < stake else ""))

    def on_wallet_activity(self, wallet, ignore_stale=False):
        """A watched wallet just transacted — pull its latest trades and route any
        new, recent one through the filter and (if it passes) the engine."""
        name = self.names.get(wallet.lower(), wallet[:10] + "…")
        trades = recent_trades(wallet)
        # oldest-first so the engine's position math stays causal
        for t in sorted(trades, key=lambda x: x.get("timestamp", 0)):
            tx = t.get("transactionHash")
            if not tx or tx in self.engine.seen or tx in self.skipped:
                continue
            if not ignore_stale and time.time() - t.get("timestamp", 0) > RECENT_TRADE_WINDOW_S:
                self.skipped.add(tx)               # stale — the webhook is about a newer tx
                continue
            follow, reason = self.filt.check(wallet, t)
            if not follow:
                self.skipped.add(tx)
                log(f"skip {name}: {t.get('side')} {t.get('outcome','?')} "
                    f"@ {t.get('price',0):.3f} — {reason}")
                continue
            log(f"FOLLOW {name}: {t.get('side')} {t.get('outcome','?')} "
                f"@ {t.get('price',0):.3f} (${t.get('usdcSize',0):,.0f})")
            with self.lock:
                self.engine.handle_trade(wallet, t)   # sizes, gates, places (paper/live)
                tok = t.get("asset")
                if tok in self.engine.state["my_pos"] and tok not in self.conds:
                    self.conds[tok] = t.get("conditionId")   # remember for settling
                for f in self._drain_fills():
                    if f["token"] == tok:                    # the fill from this copy
                        self._record_lag(wallet, t, f)

    def settle_resolved(self):
        """Free capital like the dashboard: when an open position's market has
        resolved, settle it at the winner price (1/0), recycle the cash, and tally
        realized P&L. This is the resolution path the engine's sell-only mirror
        lacks — without it the $1k never recycles for held-to-resolution bets."""
        with self.lock:
            mp = self.engine.state["my_pos"]
            for token in list(mp):
                cond = self.conds.get(token)
                if not cond:
                    continue
                wp = resolution_price(token, cond, mp[token].get("outcome"))
                if wp is None:
                    continue                            # not resolved yet
                pos = mp[token]
                # gap 2 — LIVE: redeem winning shares on-chain so the freed USDC is
                # actually back in the wallet (paper just recycles a number). Losers
                # are worth $0, no redeem. If the redeem fails, keep the position and
                # retry next pass rather than free a slot we haven't cashed out.
                if self.redeemer and wp >= 0.5:
                    neg = market_neg_risk(cond)
                    if neg and cond not in self.negrisk_warned:
                        self.negrisk_warned.add(cond)
                        self.engine.alert(f"⚠ {pos.get('title','?')[:42]} is a NEG-RISK "
                                          f"market — auto-redeem unsupported; redeem "
                                          f"manually in the Polymarket UI.")
                    if not neg:
                        ok, info = self.redeemer.try_redeem(cond)
                        if not ok:
                            log(f"  ⚠ redeem failed ({info}) — keeping position, will retry")
                            continue
                        log(f"  ↳ redeemed on-chain: {info}")
                proceeds = pos["shares"] * wp           # redeem is fee-free on-chain
                b = self.engine.state.get("bets", {}).get(token)
                fee_in = (b or {}).get("fee") or 0      # entry taker fee, already off cash
                pnl = proceeds - pos["cost"] - fee_in
                self.engine.state["cash"] += proceeds   # recycle freed capital
                if b:
                    b.update(status=("won" if wp >= 0.5 else "lost"),
                             exit_price=wp, pnl=round(pnl, 2), settled=int(time.time()))
                del mp[token]
                self.conds.pop(token, None)
                tag = "WON ✅" if wp >= 0.5 else "LOST ❌"
                label = f"{pos.get('outcome','?')} · {pos.get('title','?')[:42]}"
                self.engine.alert(
                    f"SETTLE {label} — {tag} {pos['shares']:.0f}sh -> "
                    f"${proceeds:.2f} (P&L ${pnl:+.2f})",
                    discord_text=(f"🏁 **SETTLE** {tag}\n{label}\n"
                                  f"${pos['cost']:.2f} cost -> ${proceeds:.2f} "
                                  f"= **${pnl:+.2f}**"))
            self.engine.persist()


# ── Alchemy webhook plumbing ────────────────────────────────────────────────

def verify(raw, sig, signing_key):
    if not signing_key:
        return True                                 # verification off if unconfigured
    digest = hmac.new(signing_key.encode(), raw, hashlib.sha256).hexdigest()
    return hmac.compare_digest(digest, sig or "")


def addresses_in_payload(payload, watched):
    out = set()
    for a in payload.get("event", {}).get("activity", []):
        for k in ("fromAddress", "toAddress"):
            v = a.get(k)
            if v and v.lower() in watched:
                out.add(v.lower())
    return out


def make_handler(bot, signing_key):
    watched = {w.lower() for w in bot.cfg.get("watchlist", [])}

    class Handler(BaseHTTPRequestHandler):
        def _send(self, code, body="ok"):
            self.send_response(code)
            self.send_header("Content-Type", "text/plain")
            self.end_headers()
            self.wfile.write(body.encode())

        def do_GET(self):
            self._send(200, "alive" if self.path == "/health" else "copybot")

        def do_POST(self):
            raw = self.rfile.read(int(self.headers.get("Content-Length", 0)))
            if not verify(raw, self.headers.get("x-alchemy-signature"), signing_key):
                log("⚠ bad signature — rejected")
                return self._send(401, "bad signature")
            self._send(200)                         # ack fast; Alchemy retries non-2xx
            try:
                bot.settle_resolved()               # recycle any newly-resolved positions
                payload = json.loads(raw or b"{}")
                for w in addresses_in_payload(payload, watched):
                    bot.on_wallet_activity(w)
                bot.write_feed()                    # refresh + publish the dashboard feed
                bot.publish_feed()
            except Exception as e:
                log(f"handler error: {e}")

        def log_message(self, *a):
            pass

    return Handler


# ── config / cli ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

def load_cfg(path):
    if not os.path.exists(path):
        sys.exit(f"No config at {path}.")
    cfg = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG, **load_json(path, {})}
    cfg["risk"] = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG["risk"], **cfg.get("risk", {})}
    cfg["live"] = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG["live"], **cfg.get("live", {})}
    cfg["follow"] = {**FOLLOW_DEFAULT, **cfg.get("follow", {})}
    # accept either "watchlist" (addresses) or "watch" ([{wallet,name}]); fill the gap
    if not cfg.get("watchlist") and cfg.get("watch"):
        cfg["watchlist"] = [w["wallet"] for w in cfg["watch"]]
    if not cfg.get("watch") and cfg.get("watchlist"):
        cfg["watch"] = [{"wallet": w, "name": w[:10]} for w in cfg["watchlist"]]
    return cfg


def conviction_floors_from_sharps(path):
    """Per-wallet conviction floor = that wallet's avg bet size, so only their
    above-average ('conviction') bets get copied — the edge per the research."""
    rows = load_json(path, [])
    return {r["wallet"].lower(): float(r["avg_bet"])
            for r in rows if r.get("avg_bet")}


def main():
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__,
                                 formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter)
    ap.add_argument("--config", default="config.json")
    ap.add_argument("--state", default="copybot_state.json")
    ap.add_argument("--live", action="store_true",
                    help="enable live trading (also needs mode:live in config)")
    ap.add_argument("--conviction-from-sharps", metavar="PATH",
                    help="set each wallet's conviction floor to its avg_bet from "
                         "this sharps json (e.g. live/watch_sharps.json)")
    ap.add_argument("--test-wallet", metavar="0x...",
                    help="dry-run: route this wallet's latest trade through the "
                         "pipeline once (paper), print the decision, then exit")
    ap.add_argument("--poll", type=int, metavar="SECONDS",
                    help="run forward by polling every SECONDS (instead of waiting "
                         "for Alchemy webhooks) — lets a paper run go without "
                         "deploying the webhook. Use < 600 so no trade is missed.")
    ap.add_argument("--poll-once", action="store_true",
                    help="run ONE poll pass (settle, copy new trades, write feed) "
                         "then exit — for a scheduled runner (GitHub Actions cron). "
                         "State persists across runs via --state.")
    args = ap.parse_args()

    cfg = load_cfg(args.config)
    if args.conviction_from_sharps:
        floors = conviction_floors_from_sharps(args.conviction_from_sharps)
        cfg["follow"]["per_wallet_min_usd"] = {
            **cfg["follow"].get("per_wallet_min_usd", {}), **floors}
        log(f"loaded {len(floors)} per-wallet conviction floors from "
            f"{args.conviction_from_sharps}")

    want_live = args.live and cfg.get("mode") == "live"
    if args.live and cfg.get("mode") != "live":
        sys.exit('--live given but config "mode" is not "live". Refusing to trade.')

    state = load_json(args.state, new_state())
    redeemer = None
    if want_live:
        confirm_live(cfg)
        executor = LedgerLiveExecutor(cfg)   # FOK marketable orders + fill recording
        if cfg.get("live", {}).get("auto_redeem", True):
            try:
                from redeem import Redeemer
                redeemer = Redeemer(cfg)
                log("on-chain auto-redeem ENABLED (resolved winners redeemed to USDC)")
            except Exception as e:
                log(f"⚠ auto-redeem unavailable ({e}) — resolved winners must be "
                    f"redeemed manually in the UI. (pip install web3, set live.private_key)")
    else:
        executor = LedgerPaperExecutor()   # tracks cash flows for realized-P&L reporting

    engine = CopyTrader(cfg, state, executor, args.state)
    filt = FollowFilter(cfg)
    bot = Copybot(cfg, engine, filt, redeemer=redeemer)

    mode = "LIVE — REAL MONEY" if executor.live else "PAPER (no orders placed)"
    log(f"copybot · mode: {mode}")
    log(f"watching {len(cfg.get('watchlist', []))} wallets · {filt.describe()}")
    log(f"bankroll ${cfg['bankroll_usd']:.0f} @ {cfg['bankroll_pct']:.1%}/entry · "
        f"guard {cfg['price_guard_pct']:.0%} · "
        f"caps: ${cfg['risk']['max_trade_usd']:.0f}/trade, "
        f"${cfg['risk']['daily_spend_cap_usd']:.0f}/day, "
        f"${cfg['risk']['max_total_exposure_usd']:.0f} exposure")
    bot.seed()

    # one-shot pipeline test: no server, just push a wallet's latest trade through
    if args.test_wallet:
        log(f"--test-wallet: routing {args.test_wallet[:10]}…'s latest activity "
            f"through filter + engine (paper)")
        bot.on_wallet_activity(args.test_wallet, ignore_stale=True)
        log("test done.")
        return

    # single-pass mode for a scheduled runner (GitHub Actions cron). State persists
    # across runs via --state, so the $1k book carries forward run to run. On the
    # very first run there's no baseline → mark history seen and copy nothing, so we
    # only copy trades that happen after the test starts.
    if args.poll_once:
        if not bot.engine.state.get("baselined"):
            bot.baseline()
            bot.engine.state["baselined"] = True
            bot.write_feed()
            bot.engine.persist()
            log("first run — baselined history; published online feed, copied nothing")
            return
        bot.settle_resolved()
        for w in cfg.get("watchlist", []):
            bot.on_wallet_activity(w)
        bot.summary(0)
        bot.write_feed()
        bot.engine.persist()
        log("poll-once complete")
        return

    # forward poll mode: run the same filter+engine pipeline by polling, so a paper
    # run works today without the deployed Alchemy webhook. (Production push uses the
    # webhook below; behaviour through the filter+engine is identical either way.)
    if args.poll:
        if bot.webhook:
            post_discord(bot.webhook,
                         f"✅ **Copybot paper run started** ({mode}, poll {args.poll}s)\n"
                         f"{len(cfg.get('watchlist', []))} wallets · {filt.describe()}\n"
                         f"${cfg['bankroll_usd']:.0f} book · ${cfg['bankroll_usd']*cfg['bankroll_pct']:.0f}/bet")
        bot.baseline()
        log(f"poll mode · every {args.poll}s · Ctrl-C to stop")
        bot.write_feed()                              # publish an initial "online" snapshot
        bot.publish_feed()
        cycle = 0
        try:
            while True:
                bot.settle_resolved()                 # recycle capital at resolution
                for w in cfg.get("watchlist", []):
                    bot.on_wallet_activity(w)
                cycle += 1
                bot.summary(cycle)
                bot.write_feed()                      # refresh the dashboard feed each cycle
                bot.publish_feed()                    # push to GitHub (throttled, on change)
                time.sleep(args.poll)
        except KeyboardInterrupt:
            log("stopped.")
        return

    signing_key = (os.environ.get("ALCHEMY_SIGNING_KEY")
                   or cfg.get("alchemy_signing_key", ""))
    port = int(os.environ.get("PORT", 8080))
    if bot.webhook:
        post_discord(bot.webhook,
                     f"✅ **Copybot online** ({mode})\n"
                     f"push-driven · {len(cfg.get('watchlist', []))} wallets · "
                     f"{filt.describe()}\nYou'll get a ping on every trade it places.")
    log(f"listening on :{port} · POST /alchemy · "
        f"signature-verify {'ON' if signing_key else 'OFF'}")
    ThreadingHTTPServer(("0.0.0.0", port), make_handler(bot, signing_key)).serve_forever()


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()