50 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
50 lines
1.9 KiB
Markdown
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# Polymarket Smart Money
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Finds Polymarket wallets that **win more than 75% of their resolved bets** and
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**bet multiple times per week** — the "smart money" worth watching.
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Zero dependencies. One file, Python 3 stdlib only.
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## Run the dashboard
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```bash
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python3 smart_money.py
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```
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Open **http://localhost:8899**, hit **Scan**, and wait a minute or two.
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Adjust the filters (win rate, bets/week, minimum resolved bets, candidate
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pool size) and the table updates live while the scan runs. Click any trader
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to see their recent resolved bets and a link to their Polymarket profile.
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## Run in the terminal
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```bash
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python3 smart_money.py --scan # default 150-wallet pool
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python3 smart_money.py --scan --pool 300 # broader sweep
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```
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## How it works
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1. **Candidates** — pulls the 7d, 30d, and all-time leaderboards from
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`data-api.polymarket.com/v1/leaderboard` and dedupes into a candidate pool
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(default 150 wallets).
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2. **Win rate** — for each wallet, pages through `/closed-positions` (up to
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300 most recent resolved positions). A *win* is a resolved position with
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`realizedPnl > 0`.
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3. **Frequency** — counts trades from `/activity` over the last 4 weeks;
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*bets/week* is the number of **distinct markets** traded per week, so 50
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fills on one order don't count as 50 bets.
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4. **Filter** — keeps wallets with win rate ≥ 75%, ≥ 2 bets/week, and ≥ 10
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resolved bets (so a 3-for-3 fluke doesn't rank as a 100% winner).
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## Caveats
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- Candidates come from the leaderboards, so this surfaces *profitable* sharps.
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A high-win-rate wallet that has never cracked any leaderboard window won't
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appear — scanning every wallet on the platform isn't feasible via the
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public API.
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- Win rate is measured over each wallet's most recent ~300 resolved
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positions, not their entire history.
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- High win rate ≠ high EV: someone selling early for +$1 on every position
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counts as winning. Check the realized PnL column alongside the win rate.
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