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< title > Skilled Wallets — Polymarket</ title >
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td . name { font-weight : 600 } a { color : var ( -- blue ); text-decoration : none } a : hover { text-decoration : underline }
. z { font-weight : 700 }. mono { font-family : ui-monospace , Menlo , monospace ; color : var ( -- dim ); font-size : 12 px }
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</ style ></ head >< body >< div class = "wrap" >
< h1 > Skilled Wallets < span style = "color:var(--dim);font-weight:400;font-size:18px" > · Polymarket</ span ></ h1 >
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< p class = "sub" > 68 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-17 20:13</ p >
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< div class = "cards" >
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< div class = "card" >< div class = "k" > Validated wallets</ div >< div class = "v" > 68</ div ></ div >
< div class = "card" >< div class = "k" > Median z</ div >< div class = "v" > 4.3</ div ></ div >
< div class = "card" >< div class = "k" > Median OOS z</ div >< div class = "v" style = "color:var(--green)" > 3.2</ div ></ div >
< div class = "card" >< div class = "k" > Value / longshot</ div >< div class = "v" style = "color:var(--green)" > 48</ div ></ div >
< div class = "card" >< div class = "k" > Favorite-rider</ div >< div class = "v" style = "color:var(--amber)" > 10</ div ></ div >
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</ div >
< div class = "controls" >
< input id = "q" placeholder = "search name or address…" >
< select id = "arch" >< option value = "" > All archetypes</ option >
< option value = "value" > Value / longshot</ option >
< option value = "balanced" > Balanced</ option >
< option value = "favorite" > Favorite-rider</ option ></ select >
< select id = "sort" >
< option value = "z" > Sort: z (skill)</ option >
< option value = "z_oos" > Sort: out-of-sample z</ option >
< option value = "band_0204" > Sort: alpha-zone %</ option >
< option value = "n" > Sort: # bets</ option >
< option value = "win_rate" > Sort: win rate</ option >
</ select >
</ div >
< table id = "tbl" >< thead >< tr >
< th data-k = "rank" > #</ th >< th data-k = "name" > Wallet</ th >
< th data-k = "z" > z</ th >< th data-k = "z_oos" > OOS z</ th >
< th data-k = "n" > bets</ th >< th data-k = "win_rate" > win%</ th >
< th data-k = "avg_entry" > avg entry</ th >< th data-k = "band_0204" > alpha 0.2– </ th >
< th data-k = "arch" > type</ th >
</ tr ></ thead >< tbody id = "body" ></ tbody ></ table >
< p class = "note" >< b > How to read it.</ b > < b > z</ b > = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). < b > OOS z</ b > = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. < b > Alpha 0.2– </ b > = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. < span class = "value" style = "padding:1px 7px" > Value</ span > wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); < span class = "favorite" style = "padding:1px 7px" > Favorite-rider</ span > wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.</ p >
</ div >
< script >
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const DATA = [{ "wallet" : "0xca15832b58674fc4e9d7e87bff859c4b94629b50" , "name" : "Gabe22" , "weight" : 0.083 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 31.1 , "z_oos" : 26.9 , "n" : 2262 , "win_rate" : 44.5 , "avg_entry" : 0.2 , "band_0204" : 0.35 , "rank" : 1 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 1007 }, { "wallet" : "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7" , "name" : "2j289uUmAio7ap245975" , "weight" : 0.0478 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 17.91 , "z_oos" : 9.49 , "n" : 2084 , "win_rate" : 69.9 , "avg_entry" : 0.51 , "band_0204" : 0.13 , "rank" : 2 , "arch" : "balanced" , "wins" : 1457 }, { "wallet" : "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4" , "name" : "Siziriv" , "weight" : 0.0399 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 14.95 , "z_oos" : 7.81 , "n" : 2312 , "win_rate" : 51.1 , "avg_entry" : 0.44 , "band_0204" : 0.03 , "rank" : 3 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 1181 }, { "wallet" : "0x5bb44d0d51c6a04b8e292ed163936d491bda692a" , "name" : "F0xff5BB44d0D51C6A04B8E29" , "weight" : 0.027 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 10.11 , "z_oos" : 10.96 , "n" : 2387 , "win_rate" : 38.7 , "avg_entry" : 0.31 , "band_0204" : 0.26 , "rank" : 4 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 924 }, { "wallet" : "0x2257901897e83d39e778fa86d568dc1cd9a2dca2" , "name" : "iuii899889" , "weight" : 0.0267 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 9.99 , "z_oos" : 6.55 , "n" : 1538 , "win_rate" : 50.0 , "avg_entry" : 0.38 , "band_0204" : 0.25 , "rank" : 5 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 769 }, { "wallet" : "0xda24f0caf5766fc36df8ac2f6ae3a567b71a9f1f" , "name" : "Thewinwin" , "weight" : 0.0245 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 9.18 , "z_oos" : 6.84 , "n" : 2001 , "win_rate" : 41.0 , "avg_entry" : 0.32 , "band_0204" : 0.31 , "rank" : 6 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 820 }, { "wallet" : "0x14d2bf01e3e7bac9b1799265db3c7d8a993dfa3e" , "name" : "8998yueyye" , "weight" : 0.0243 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 9.12 , "z_oos" : 5.97 , "n" : 1531 , "win_rate" : 50.0 , "avg_entry" : 0.39 , "band_0204" : 0.25 , "rank" : 7 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 766 }, { "wallet" : "0xf3a6ef82d0904db48c0ad8016ca62c556fee8c6c" , "name" : "0xf3a6ef82\u2026" , "weight" : 0.0233 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 8.75 , "z_oos" : 5.74 , "n" : 2094 , "win_rate" : 35.0 , "avg_entry" : 0.28 , "band_0204" : 0.2 , "rank" : 8 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 733 }, { "wallet" : "0xf508f2dde64316531b4eab2f0956636b9dd63a0e" , "name" : "0xf508f2dd\u2026" , "weight" : 0.0211 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 7.92 , "z_oos" : 6.58 , "n" : 1541 , "win_rate" : 22.2 , "avg_entry" : 0.15 , "band_0204" : 0.23 , "rank" : 9 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 342 }, { "wallet" : "0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643" , "name" : "AI.AGENT.2026" , "weight" : 0.0203 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 7.62 , "z_oos" : 3.95 , "n" : 614 , "win_rate" : 92.2 , "avg_entry" : 0.82 , "band_0204" : 0.05 , "rank" : 10 , "arch" : "balanced" , "wins" : 566 }, { "wallet" : "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046" , "name" : "hfdffdhr" , "weight" : 0.0195 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 7.31 , "z_oos" : 4.99 , "n" : 1379 , "win_rate" : 49.8 , "avg_entry" : 0.41 , "band_0204" : 0.2 , "rank" : 11 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 687 }, { "wallet" : "0x1b44945f8992fcea2b43034557e47d11827fd8de" , "name" : "BrickThrower" , "weight" : 0.0194 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 7.28 , "z_oos" : 4.7 , "n" : 2212 , "win_rate" : 44.1 , "avg_entry" : 0.38 , "band_0204" : 0.24 , "rank" : 12 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 975 }, { "wallet" : "0x5da978e2df4d17bfe7214c017e2151d4b827ce46" , "name" : "Skovie" , "weight" : 0.0173 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 6.5 , "z_oos" : 6.36 , "n" : 932 , "win_rate" : 31.1 , "avg_entry" : 0.23 , "band_0204" : 0.28 , "rank" : 13 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 290 }, { "wallet" : "0x657b0517a6599f82ada5281817041165c4e843c1" , "name" : "0x657b0517a6599F82aDA5281817041165c4E843c1-1782796906468" , "weight" : 0.0166 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 6.21 , "z_oos" : 1.02 , "n" : 1062 , "win_rate" : 34.5 , "avg_entry" : 0.28 , "band_0204" : 0.2 , "rank" : 14 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 366 }, { "wallet" : "0x4b51d90a0f8024a1d3d169b6a4a6473d3f75de5e" , "name" : "0x4b51d90a\u2026" , "weight" : 0.0165 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 6.19 , "z_oos" : 5.82 , "n" : 470 , "win_rate" : 31.3 , "avg_entry" : 0.21 , "band_0204" : 0.26 , "rank" : 15 , "arch" : "value" , "wins" : 147 }, { "wallet" : "0xc850cf70d9da621ff0c219f625c9623f88b78c51" , "name" : "0xc850cf70\u2026" , "weight" : 0.0153 , "tier" : "validated" , "z" : 5.75 , "z_oos" : 5.32 , "n" : 2057 , "win_rate" : 50.8 , "avg_entry" : 0.45 , "b
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const fmtW=w=>w.length>14?w.slice(0,6)+'…'+w.slice(-4):w;
let sortK='z',asc=false,open=null;
const body=document.getElementById('body');
function render(){
const q=document.getElementById('q').value.toLowerCase();
const af=document.getElementById('arch').value;
let rows=DATA.filter(r=>(!af||r.arch===af)&&
(!q||(r.name||'').toLowerCase().includes(q)||r.wallet.toLowerCase().includes(q)));
rows.sort((a,b)=>{const x=a[sortK],y=b[sortK];return (asc?1:-1)*((x>y)-(x<y));});
body.innerHTML=rows.map(r=>{
const zc=r.z>=10?'var(--violet)':r.z>=6?'var(--green)':'var(--fg)';
const oc=r.z_oos>=5?'var(--green)':r.z_oos>=3?'var(--amber)':'var(--red)';
const bw=Math.round(r.band_0204*46);
return `<tr class=" row " data-w=" $ { r . wallet } ">
<td>${r.rank}</td>
<td class=" name ">${r.name||fmtW(r.wallet)}<div class=" mono ">${fmtW(r.wallet)}</div></td>
<td class=" z " style=" color : $ { zc } ">${r.z.toFixed(1)}</td>
<td class=" z " style=" color : $ { oc } ">${r.z_oos==null?'—':r.z_oos.toFixed(1)}</td>
<td>${r.wins}/${r.n}</td>
<td>${r.win_rate.toFixed(0)}%</td>
<td>${r.avg_entry.toFixed(2)}</td>
<td><span class=" bar " style=" width : $ { bw } px "></span> ${(r.band_0204*100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
<td><span class=" pill $ { r . arch } ">${r.arch}</span></td></tr>`;
}).join('')||'<tr><td colspan=" 9 " style=" text - align : center ; color : var ( -- dim ); padding : 24 px ">no matches</td></tr>';
}
body.addEventListener('click',async e=>{
const tr=e.target.closest('tr.row'); if(!tr)return;
const w=tr.dataset.w;
const nx=tr.nextElementSibling;
if(nx&&nx.classList.contains('det')){nx.remove();return;}
document.querySelectorAll('tr.det').forEach(x=>x.remove());
const d=document.createElement('tr');d.className='det';
d.innerHTML=`<td colspan=" 9 ">loading recent trades… · <a href=" https : //polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a></td>`;
tr . after ( d );
try {
const r = await fetch ( `https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user= ${ w } &type=TRADE&limit=8` );
const ts = await r . json ();
const rows = ( ts || []). map ( t => `<div class="trade"><span class=" ${ t . side === 'BUY' ? 'b' : 's' } "> ${ t . side } </span>
<span> ${ ( t . outcome || '' ) } · ${ ( t . title || '' ). slice ( 0 , 52 ) } </span>
<span style="margin-left:auto;color:var(--dim)"> ${ (( t . price || 0 ) * 100 ). toFixed ( 0 ) } ¢</span></div>` ). join ( '' );
d . firstChild . innerHTML = `<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/ ${ w } " target="_blank">open profile ↗</a><div style="margin-top:6px"> ${ rows || 'no recent trades' } </div>` ;
} catch ( err ){ d . firstChild . innerHTML = `<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/ ${ w } " target="_blank">open profile ↗</a> · live feed unavailable` ;}
});
document . querySelectorAll ( 'th' ). forEach ( th => th . onclick = ()=>{
const k = th . dataset . k ; if ( k === sortK ) asc =! asc ; else { sortK = k ; asc = ( k === 'rank' || k === 'avg_entry' );} render ();});
document . getElementById ( 'q' ). oninput = render ;
document . getElementById ( 'arch' ). onchange = render ;
document . getElementById ( 'sort' ). onchange = e =>{ sortK = e . target . value ; asc = false ; render ();};
render ();
</ script ></ body ></ html >
