//! Linear Regression (rolling least-squares endpoint). use std::collections::VecDeque; use crate::error::{Error, Result}; use crate::traits::Indicator; /// Linear Regression — the endpoint of a rolling least-squares fit. /// /// Over the last `period` inputs, indexed `x = 0, 1, …, period − 1`, it fits /// the line `y = a + b·x` by ordinary least squares and reports the line's /// value at the most recent point: /// /// ```text /// b (slope) = (n·Σxy − Σx·Σy) / (n·Σxx − (Σx)²) /// a (intercept) = (Σy − b·Σx) / n /// LinearReg = a + b·(period − 1) /// ``` /// /// This is TA-Lib's `LINEARREG`: a smoothed price that lags less than an SMA /// because it extrapolates the *local trend* forward to the current bar /// instead of averaging it away. The `Σx` terms depend only on `period`, so /// they are computed once; each `update` is O(period). /// /// # Example /// /// ``` /// use wickra_core::{Indicator, LinearRegression}; /// /// let mut indicator = LinearRegression::new(14).unwrap(); /// let mut last = None; /// for i in 0..80 { /// last = indicator.update(f64::from(i)); /// } /// assert!(last.is_some()); /// ``` #[derive(Debug, Clone)] pub struct LinearRegression { period: usize, window: VecDeque, sum_x: f64, denom: f64, } impl LinearRegression { /// Construct a new rolling linear regression over `period` inputs. /// /// # Errors /// Returns [`Error::InvalidPeriod`] if `period < 2` — a regression line is /// undefined for fewer than two points. pub fn new(period: usize) -> Result { if period < 2 { return Err(Error::InvalidPeriod { message: "linear regression needs period >= 2", }); } let n = period as f64; // Closed forms for x = 0, 1, …, period − 1. let sum_x = n * (n - 1.0) / 2.0; let sum_xx = (n - 1.0) * n * (2.0 * n - 1.0) / 6.0; Ok(Self { period, window: VecDeque::with_capacity(period), sum_x, denom: n * sum_xx - sum_x * sum_x, }) } /// Configured period. pub const fn period(&self) -> usize { self.period } /// Ordinary-least-squares `(slope, endpoint)` over the current full window. fn fit(&self) -> (f64, f64) { let n = self.period as f64; let mut sum_y = 0.0; let mut sum_xy = 0.0; for (x, &y) in self.window.iter().enumerate() { sum_y += y; sum_xy += x as f64 * y; } let slope = (n * sum_xy - self.sum_x * sum_y) / self.denom; let intercept = (sum_y - slope * self.sum_x) / n; (slope, intercept + slope * (n - 1.0)) } } impl Indicator for LinearRegression { type Input = f64; type Output = f64; fn update(&mut self, value: f64) -> Option { if self.window.len() == self.period { self.window.pop_front(); } self.window.push_back(value); if self.window.len() < self.period { return None; } Some(self.fit().1) } fn reset(&mut self) { self.window.clear(); } fn warmup_period(&self) -> usize { self.period } fn is_ready(&self) -> bool { self.window.len() == self.period } fn name(&self) -> &'static str { "LinearRegression" } } #[cfg(test)] mod tests { use super::*; use crate::traits::BatchExt; use approx::assert_relative_eq; #[test] fn reference_values() { // period 3 over [1, 2, 9]: fit y = 0 + 4x, endpoint = 0 + 4·2 = 8. let mut lr = LinearRegression::new(3).unwrap(); let out = lr.batch(&[1.0, 2.0, 9.0]); assert!(out[0].is_none()); assert!(out[1].is_none()); assert_relative_eq!(out[2].unwrap(), 8.0, epsilon = 1e-9); } #[test] fn perfect_line_returns_current_value() { // The regression of a perfectly linear series is that line itself, so // its endpoint equals the current value. let prices: Vec = (0..40).map(|i| 2.0 * f64::from(i) + 5.0).collect(); let mut lr = LinearRegression::new(10).unwrap(); for (i, v) in lr.batch(&prices).into_iter().enumerate() { if let Some(v) = v { assert_relative_eq!(v, 2.0 * i as f64 + 5.0, epsilon = 1e-6); } } } #[test] fn constant_series_returns_the_constant() { let mut lr = LinearRegression::new(8).unwrap(); for v in lr.batch(&[42.0; 20]).into_iter().flatten() { assert_relative_eq!(v, 42.0, epsilon = 1e-9); } } #[test] fn first_value_on_period_th_input() { let mut lr = LinearRegression::new(5).unwrap(); let out = lr.batch(&[1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 6.0]); for (i, v) in out.iter().enumerate().take(4) { assert!(v.is_none(), "index {i} must be None during warmup"); } assert!(out[4].is_some(), "first value lands at index period - 1"); assert_eq!(lr.warmup_period(), 5); } #[test] fn rejects_period_below_two() { assert!(LinearRegression::new(0).is_err()); assert!(LinearRegression::new(1).is_err()); assert!(LinearRegression::new(2).is_ok()); } #[test] fn reset_clears_state() { let mut lr = LinearRegression::new(5).unwrap(); lr.batch(&[1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0]); assert!(lr.is_ready()); lr.reset(); assert!(!lr.is_ready()); assert_eq!(lr.update(1.0), None); } #[test] fn batch_equals_streaming() { let prices: Vec = (0..60) .map(|i| 50.0 + (f64::from(i) * 0.3).sin() * 10.0) .collect(); let mut a = LinearRegression::new(14).unwrap(); let mut b = LinearRegression::new(14).unwrap(); assert_eq!( a.batch(&prices), prices.iter().map(|x| b.update(*x)).collect::>() ); } }