//! Rolling excess kurtosis (Pearson's fourth standardised central moment − 3). use std::collections::VecDeque; use crate::error::{Error, Result}; use crate::traits::Indicator; /// Rolling **excess** kurtosis of the last `period` values. /// /// ```text /// mean = (1/n) · Σ x /// m2 = (1/n) · Σ (x − mean)² /// m4 = (1/n) · Σ (x − mean)⁴ /// Kurtosis = m4 / m2² − 3 /// ``` /// /// The unshifted kurtosis `m4 / m2²` equals `3` for the normal distribution; /// subtracting `3` gives **excess** kurtosis so that `0` is the Gaussian /// baseline. Positive readings flag fat tails (heavy outliers compared to /// normal); negative readings flag light tails (more concentrated than /// normal). This is the population definition with divisor `n`. A window /// with zero dispersion yields `0`. /// /// Each `update` is O(1): four running sums (`Σ x`, `Σ x²`, `Σ x³`, `Σ x⁴`) /// are maintained as the window slides; the central moments are derived /// from them via the binomial-expansion identities, so no inner loop runs /// per bar. /// /// # Example /// /// ``` /// use wickra_core::{Indicator, Kurtosis}; /// /// let mut indicator = Kurtosis::new(20).unwrap(); /// let mut last = None; /// for i in 0..40 { /// last = indicator.update(f64::from(i)); /// } /// assert!(last.is_some()); /// ``` #[derive(Debug, Clone)] pub struct Kurtosis { period: usize, window: VecDeque, sum: f64, sum_sq: f64, sum_cu: f64, sum_qu: f64, } impl Kurtosis { /// Construct a new rolling excess kurtosis with the given period. /// /// # Errors /// Returns [`Error::InvalidPeriod`] if `period < 4`. pub fn new(period: usize) -> Result { if period < 4 { return Err(Error::InvalidPeriod { message: "kurtosis needs period >= 4", }); } Ok(Self { period, window: VecDeque::with_capacity(period), sum: 0.0, sum_sq: 0.0, sum_cu: 0.0, sum_qu: 0.0, }) } /// Configured period. pub const fn period(&self) -> usize { self.period } } impl Indicator for Kurtosis { type Input = f64; type Output = f64; fn update(&mut self, value: f64) -> Option { if self.window.len() == self.period { let old = self.window.pop_front().expect("non-empty"); let sq = old * old; self.sum -= old; self.sum_sq -= sq; self.sum_cu -= old * sq; self.sum_qu -= sq * sq; } self.window.push_back(value); let sq = value * value; self.sum += value; self.sum_sq += sq; self.sum_cu += value * sq; self.sum_qu += sq * sq; if self.window.len() < self.period { return None; } let n = self.period as f64; let mean = self.sum / n; let m2 = (self.sum_sq / n - mean * mean).max(0.0); if m2 == 0.0 { // Flat window: kurtosis is undefined, return 0 (Gaussian baseline). return Some(0.0); } // m4 = E[x⁴] − 4·mean·E[x³] + 6·mean²·E[x²] − 3·mean⁴. let mean_sq = mean * mean; let m4 = self.sum_qu / n - 4.0 * mean * (self.sum_cu / n) + 6.0 * mean_sq * (self.sum_sq / n) - 3.0 * mean_sq * mean_sq; Some(m4 / (m2 * m2) - 3.0) } fn reset(&mut self) { self.window.clear(); self.sum = 0.0; self.sum_sq = 0.0; self.sum_cu = 0.0; self.sum_qu = 0.0; } fn warmup_period(&self) -> usize { self.period } fn is_ready(&self) -> bool { self.window.len() == self.period } fn name(&self) -> &'static str { "Kurtosis" } } #[cfg(test)] mod tests { use super::*; use crate::traits::BatchExt; use approx::assert_relative_eq; #[test] fn rejects_period_below_four() { assert!(Kurtosis::new(0).is_err()); assert!(Kurtosis::new(3).is_err()); assert!(Kurtosis::new(4).is_ok()); } #[test] fn accessors_and_metadata() { let k = Kurtosis::new(14).unwrap(); assert_eq!(k.period(), 14); assert_eq!(k.warmup_period(), 14); assert_eq!(k.name(), "Kurtosis"); } #[test] fn two_point_distribution_is_negative_two() { // A {a, b, a, b} window has m4/m2² = 1, so excess kurtosis = −2. // This is the theoretical minimum for any real distribution. let mut k = Kurtosis::new(4).unwrap(); let out = k.batch(&[-1.0, 1.0, -1.0, 1.0]); assert_relative_eq!(out[3].unwrap(), -2.0, epsilon = 1e-9); } #[test] fn constant_series_yields_zero() { let mut k = Kurtosis::new(5).unwrap(); for v in k.batch(&[42.0; 20]).into_iter().flatten() { assert_relative_eq!(v, 0.0, epsilon = 1e-12); } } #[test] fn outlier_window_is_leptokurtic() { // A single large outlier amid otherwise-flat samples has positive // excess kurtosis (a heavy tail). let mut k = Kurtosis::new(5).unwrap(); let out = k.batch(&[0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0]); assert!(out[4].unwrap() > 0.0); } #[test] fn reset_clears_state() { let mut k = Kurtosis::new(5).unwrap(); k.batch(&[1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0]); assert!(k.is_ready()); k.reset(); assert!(!k.is_ready()); assert_eq!(k.update(1.0), None); } #[test] fn batch_equals_streaming() { let prices: Vec = (0..60) .map(|i| 100.0 + (f64::from(i) * 0.3).sin() * 5.0) .collect(); let batch = Kurtosis::new(14).unwrap().batch(&prices); let mut b = Kurtosis::new(14).unwrap(); let streamed: Vec<_> = prices.iter().map(|p| b.update(*p)).collect(); assert_eq!(batch, streamed); } }