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# 🌤 Weather Trading Bot — Polymarket
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# 🌤 Weather Trading Bot — Polymarket
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Automated weather market trading bot for Polymarket. Finds mispriced temperature outcomes using real station data from NWS and Visual Crossing.
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Automated weather market trading bot for Polymarket. Finds mispriced temperature outcomes using real station data from NWS.
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No SDK. No black box. Pure Python.
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No SDK. No black box. Pure Python.
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## Versions
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## Versions
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### `bot_v1.py` — Base Bot
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### `bot_v1.py` — Base Bot (current)
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The foundation. Scans 6 US cities, fetches forecasts from NWS, finds matching temperature buckets on Polymarket, and enters trades when the market price is below the entry threshold.
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The foundation. Scans 6 US cities, fetches forecasts from NWS using airport station coordinates, finds matching temperature buckets on Polymarket, and enters trades when the market price is below the entry threshold.
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No math, no complexity. Just the core logic — good for understanding how the system works.
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No math, no complexity. Just the core logic — good for understanding how the system works.
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### `bot_v2.py` — Kelly + EV Edition
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### `bot_v2.py` — Kelly + EV Edition (coming soon)
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Everything in v1, plus:
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Everything in v1, plus:
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- **Auto-exit** — closes positions when price hits the exit threshold
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- **Auto-exit** — closes positions when price hits the exit threshold
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- **Live dashboard** — updates `simulation.json` so the dashboard stays current
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- **Live dashboard** — updates `simulation.json` so the dashboard stays current
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~400 lines of pure Python.
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### `bot_v3.py` — Auto-Cycle + Forecast Monitoring (current)
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Everything in v2, plus:
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- **Auto-cycle** — scans every hour, synchronized to the clock (:00, :01, :02...)
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- **Forecast monitor** — checks every 60 seconds, closes positions if forecast changes or EV goes negative
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- **Real station data** — NWS hourly observations + Visual Crossing for today's actual readings
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- **Correct airport coordinates** — each city mapped to the exact station Polymarket resolves on
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- **Liquidity-aware sizing** — reduces position size for low-volume markets, hard cap at $20 for markets under $1k volume
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- **Slippage simulation** — entry price reflects real market impact
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- **16 cities** — 6 US cities via NWS, 10 international via Open-Meteo
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---
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---
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## How It Works
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## How It Works
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@@ -45,13 +31,11 @@ Polymarket runs markets like "Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between
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The bot:
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The bot:
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1. Fetches forecasts from NWS (US cities) and Open-Meteo (international) using airport coordinates
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1. Fetches forecasts from NWS using airport coordinates
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2. Combines real station observations with hourly forecast to get the true daily maximum
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2. Combines real station observations with hourly forecast to get the true daily maximum
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3. Finds the matching temperature bucket on Polymarket
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3. Finds the matching temperature bucket on Polymarket
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4. Calculates Expected Value — skips the trade if EV is below threshold
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4. Enters the trade if market price is below the entry threshold
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5. Calculates Kelly Criterion — sizes position based on edge strength
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5. Runs a full $1,000 simulation against real market prices before you risk anything
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6. Adjusts position size for market liquidity and simulates slippage
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7. Monitors all open positions every 60 seconds — closes if forecast shifts
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---
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---
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---
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---
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## Kelly + EV Logic
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**Expected Value** — is this trade mathematically profitable?
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```
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EV = (our_probability × net_payout) − (1 − our_probability)
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```
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**Kelly Criterion** — how much of the balance to bet?
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```
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Kelly % = (p × b − q) / b
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```
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We use fractional Kelly (25%) and cap each position at 5% of balance.
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---
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## Installation
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## Installation
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```bash
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```bash
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git clone https://github.com/alteregoeth-ai/weatherbot
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git clone https://github.com/alteregoeth-ai/weatherbot
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cd weatherbot
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cd weatherbot
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pip install requests pytz
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pip install requests
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```
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```
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Add your settings to `config.json`:
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Create `config.json` in the project folder:
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```json
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```json
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{
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{
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"entry_threshold": 0.15,
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"entry_threshold": 0.15,
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"exit_threshold": 0.45,
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"exit_threshold": 0.45,
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"max_position_pct": 0.05,
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"locations": "nyc,chicago,miami,dallas,seattle,atlanta",
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"max_trades_per_run": 5,
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"max_trades_per_run": 5,
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"min_hours_to_resolution": 2
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"min_hours_to_resolution": 2,
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"locations": "nyc,chicago,miami,dallas,seattle,atlanta"
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}
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}
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```
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```
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## Usage
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## Usage
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### bot_v1.py
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```bash
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```bash
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python bot_v1.py # paper mode — shows signals, no trades
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python bot_v1.py # paper mode — shows signals, no trades
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python bot_v1.py --live # simulates trades with $1,000 balance
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python bot_v1.py --live # simulates trades with $1,000 balance
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python bot_v1.py --reset # reset balance back to $1,000
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python bot_v1.py --reset # reset balance back to $1,000
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python bot_v1.py --positions # show open positions and PnL
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```
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```
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### bot_v3.py
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```bash
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python bot_v3.py --live # run bot (entry scanner + forecast monitor)
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python bot_v3.py --positions # show open positions and PnL
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python bot_v3.py --reset # reset simulation back to $1,000
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```
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---
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## Dashboard
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Run a local server in the bot folder:
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```bash
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python -m http.server 8000
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```
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Then open `http://localhost:8000/sim_dashboard_repost.html` in your browser.
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- Balance chart with history
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- Open positions with Kelly %, EV, and current PnL
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- Full trade history with ENTRY/SELL labels
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- Refreshes automatically every 10 seconds
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---
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## Configuration
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## Configuration
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|-----------|---------|-------------|
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|-----------|---------|-------------|
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| `entry_threshold` | `0.15` | Buy below this price |
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| `entry_threshold` | `0.15` | Buy below this price |
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| `exit_threshold` | `0.45` | Sell above this price |
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| `exit_threshold` | `0.45` | Sell above this price |
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| `max_position_pct` | `0.05` | Max position size as % of balance |
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| `locations` | `nyc,...` | Cities to scan (comma separated) |
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| `max_trades_per_run` | `5` | Max new trades per scan |
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| `max_trades_per_run` | `5` | Max new trades per scan |
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| `min_hours_to_resolution` | `2` | Skip if resolves too soon |
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| `min_hours_to_resolution` | `2` | Skip if resolves too soon |
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| `locations` | `nyc,...` | Cities to scan (comma separated) |
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---
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---
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@@ -168,8 +106,6 @@ Then open `http://localhost:8000/sim_dashboard_repost.html` in your browser.
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| API | Auth | Purpose |
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| API | Auth | Purpose |
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|-----|------|---------|
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|-----|------|---------|
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| NWS (api.weather.gov) | None | US city forecasts + station observations |
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| NWS (api.weather.gov) | None | US city forecasts + station observations |
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| Open-Meteo | None | International city forecasts |
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| Visual Crossing | Free key | Today's actual hourly readings by station |
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| Polymarket Gamma | None | Market data |
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| Polymarket Gamma | None | Market data |
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| Polymarket CLOB | Wallet key | Live trading (optional) |
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| Polymarket CLOB | Wallet key | Live trading (optional) |
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@@ -183,7 +119,7 @@ The bot runs in simulation mode by default. To execute real trades, add Polymark
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pip install py-clob-client
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pip install py-clob-client
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```
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```
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Then replace the paper mode block in `bot_v3.py` with your CLOB buy function. Full guide in the article linked below.
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Then replace the paper mode block in `bot_v1.py` with your CLOB buy function. Full guide in the article linked below.
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---
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