import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler SYMBOL = "USDCHF" MODEL_NAME = "usdchf-range-logistic-1h" def _prep(data): df = data.copy() df.columns = [str(c).strip().lower() for c in df.columns] if "volume" not in df.columns: df["volume"] = 1.0 for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") return df.dropna(subset=["open", "high", "low", "close"]).reset_index(drop=True) def _features(df): c = df["close"] rng = (df["high"] - df["low"]).replace(0, np.nan) f = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) for n in [1, 3, 6, 12, 24]: f[f"ret{n}"] = c.pct_change(n) f["range_pct"] = rng / c f["body_pct"] = (c - df["open"]) / (rng + 1e-9) f["close_pos"] = (c - df["low"]) / (rng + 1e-9) f["ema_8_21"] = (c.ewm(span=8, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=21, adjust=False).mean()) / c f["ema_21_55"] = (c.ewm(span=21, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=55, adjust=False).mean()) / c f["volatility"] = c.pct_change().rolling(24).std() f["volume_ratio"] = df["volume"] / (df["volume"].rolling(24).mean() + 1e-9) return f.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() def train(data, config): p = config.get("parameters", {}) df = _prep(data) x = _features(df) horizon = int(p.get("horizon", 4)) threshold = float(p.get("threshold", 0.0012)) fwd = df["close"].pct_change(horizon).shift(-horizon) y = pd.Series(1, index=df.index) y[fwd > threshold] = 2 y[fwd < -threshold] = 0 y = y.reindex(x.index).fillna(1).astype(int) model = Pipeline([ ("scaler", StandardScaler()), ("clf", LogisticRegression(max_iter=1000, class_weight="balanced")), ]) model.fit(x.values.astype(np.float32), y.values) pred = model.predict(x.values.astype(np.float32)) return {"model": model, "features": list(x.columns), "symbol": SYMBOL}, {"training_bars": int(len(x)), "feature_count": int(x.shape[1]), "buy_signals": int((pred == 2).sum()), "sell_signals": int((pred == 0).sum()), "hold_signals": int((pred == 1).sum())} def predict(model, market_data, config): p = config.get("parameters", {}) candles = market_data.get("candles", []) if len(candles) < int(p.get("lookback", 140)): return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "not_enough_candles", "model": MODEL_NAME}} df = _prep(pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])) row = _features(df).tail(1) if row.empty: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "no_features", "model": MODEL_NAME}} prob = model["model"].predict_proba(row[model["features"]].values.astype(np.float32))[0] klass = int(np.argmax(prob)) conf = float(np.max(prob)) signal = {0: "DOWN", 1: "HOLD", 2: "UP"}[klass] if conf < float(p.get("min_confidence", 0.48)): signal = "HOLD" return {"signal": signal, "confidence": round(conf, 4), "metadata": {"p_sell": round(float(prob[0]), 4), "p_hold": round(float(prob[1]), 4), "p_buy": round(float(prob[2]), 4), "model": MODEL_NAME, "symbol": SYMBOL}}