import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler from xgboost import XGBClassifier def _normalise(data): df = data.copy() df.columns = [str(c).strip().lower() for c in df.columns] aliases = {"o": "open", "h": "high", "l": "low", "c": "close", "v": "volume"} df.rename(columns=aliases, inplace=True) if "volume" not in df.columns: df["volume"] = 1.0 for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") return df.dropna(subset=["open", "high", "low", "close"]).reset_index(drop=True) def _rsi(close, n=14): delta = close.diff() gain = delta.clip(lower=0).ewm(alpha=1 / n, adjust=False).mean() loss = (-delta.clip(upper=0)).ewm(alpha=1 / n, adjust=False).mean() return 100 - 100 / (1 + gain / (loss + 1e-9)) def _features(df): c = df["close"] h = df["high"] l = df["low"] o = df["open"] v = df["volume"] rng = (h - l).replace(0, np.nan) f = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) for n in [1, 3, 6, 12, 24]: f[f"ret{n}"] = c.pct_change(n) f["range_pct"] = rng / c f["body_pct"] = (c - o) / rng f["close_pos"] = (c - l) / (rng + 1e-9) f["volatility_24"] = c.pct_change().rolling(24).std() f["volatility_72"] = c.pct_change().rolling(72).std() f["ema_12_48"] = (c.ewm(span=12, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=48, adjust=False).mean()) / c f["ema_24_96"] = (c.ewm(span=24, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=96, adjust=False).mean()) / c f["rsi14"] = (_rsi(c, 14) - 50) / 50 f["volume_z"] = (v - v.rolling(48).mean()) / (v.rolling(48).std() + 1e-9) return f.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() def _labels(close, index, horizon, threshold): fwd = close.pct_change(horizon).shift(-horizon) y = pd.Series(1, index=close.index) y[fwd > threshold] = 2 y[fwd < -threshold] = 0 return y.reindex(index).fillna(1).astype(int) def train(data, config): params = config.get("parameters", {}) df = _normalise(data) feat = _features(df) horizon = int(params.get("horizon", 4)) threshold = float(params.get("threshold", 0.0012)) y = _labels(df["close"], feat.index, horizon, threshold) scaler = StandardScaler() x = scaler.fit_transform(feat.values.astype(np.float32)) clf = XGBClassifier( n_estimators=int(params.get("n_estimators", 250)), max_depth=int(params.get("max_depth", 4)), learning_rate=float(params.get("learning_rate", 0.04)), subsample=float(params.get("subsample", 0.8)), colsample_bytree=float(params.get("colsample_bytree", 0.85)), objective="multi:softprob", num_class=3, eval_metric="mlogloss", tree_method="hist", random_state=42, ) clf.fit(x, y.values) preds = clf.predict(x) metrics = { "training_bars": int(len(feat)), "feature_count": int(feat.shape[1]), "class_dist": { "SELL": int((y == 0).sum()), "HOLD": int((y == 1).sum()), "BUY": int((y == 2).sum()), }, "buy_signals": int((preds == 2).sum()), "sell_signals": int((preds == 0).sum()), "hold_signals": int((preds == 1).sum()), } return {"model": clf, "scaler": scaler, "features": list(feat.columns)}, metrics def predict(model, market_data, config): params = config.get("parameters", {}) candles = market_data.get("candles", []) if len(candles) < int(params.get("lookback", 140)): return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "not_enough_candles"}} df = _normalise(pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])) row = _features(df).tail(1) if row.empty: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "no_features"}} row = row[model["features"]] x = model["scaler"].transform(row.values.astype(np.float32)) prob = model["model"].predict_proba(x)[0] klass = int(np.argmax(prob)) conf = float(np.max(prob)) signal = {0: "DOWN", 1: "HOLD", 2: "UP"}[klass] if conf < float(params.get("min_confidence", 0.48)): signal = "HOLD" return { "signal": signal, "confidence": round(conf, 4), "metadata": { "p_sell": round(float(prob[0]), 4), "p_hold": round(float(prob[1]), 4), "p_buy": round(float(prob[2]), 4), "model": "eurusd-xgboost-1h", }, }