import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler def _normalise(data): df = data.copy() df.columns = [str(c).lower() for c in df.columns] if "volume" not in df.columns: df["volume"] = 1.0 for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") return df.dropna(subset=["open", "high", "low", "close"]).reset_index(drop=True) def _features(df): c = df["close"] rng = (df["high"] - df["low"]).replace(0, np.nan) out = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) out["ret1"] = c.pct_change() out["ret4"] = c.pct_change(4) out["ret12"] = c.pct_change(12) out["range_pct"] = rng / c out["body_pct"] = (c - df["open"]) / rng out["close_pos"] = (c - df["low"]) / rng out["volatility"] = out["ret1"].rolling(20).std() out["ma_fast"] = (c.rolling(8).mean() - c.rolling(21).mean()) / c out["ma_slow"] = (c.rolling(21).mean() - c.rolling(55).mean()) / c return out.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() def _labels(close, index, horizon, threshold): fwd = close.pct_change(horizon).shift(-horizon) y = pd.Series(1, index=close.index) y[fwd > threshold] = 2 y[fwd < -threshold] = 0 return y.reindex(index).fillna(1).astype(int) def train(data, config): params = config.get("parameters", {}) horizon = int(params.get("horizon", 4)) threshold = float(params.get("threshold", 0.0008)) df = _normalise(data) feat = _features(df) y = _labels(df["close"], feat.index, horizon, threshold) model = Pipeline([ ("scaler", StandardScaler()), ("clf", LogisticRegression(max_iter=1000, class_weight="balanced", multi_class="auto")), ]) model.fit(feat.values, y.values) preds = model.predict(feat.values) metrics = { "training_bars": int(len(feat)), "feature_count": int(feat.shape[1]), "buy_signals": int((preds == 2).sum()), "sell_signals": int((preds == 0).sum()), "hold_signals": int((preds == 1).sum()), } return {"model": model, "features": list(feat.columns)}, metrics def predict(model, market_data, config): candles = market_data.get("candles", []) lookback = int(config.get("parameters", {}).get("lookback", 80)) min_conf = float(config.get("parameters", {}).get("min_confidence", 0.48)) if len(candles) < lookback: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "not_enough_candles"}} df = _normalise(pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])) feat = _features(df).tail(1) if feat.empty: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "no_features"}} proba = model["model"].predict_proba(feat.values)[0] klass = int(np.argmax(proba)) conf = float(proba[klass]) signal = {0: "DOWN", 1: "HOLD", 2: "UP"}[klass] if conf < min_conf: signal = "HOLD" return {"signal": signal, "confidence": round(conf, 4), "metadata": {"p_sell": round(float(proba[0]), 4), "p_hold": round(float(proba[1]), 4), "p_buy": round(float(proba[2]), 4)}}