import numpy as np import pandas as pd from lightgbm import LGBMClassifier from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler def _prep(data): df = data.copy() df.columns = [str(c).lower() for c in df.columns] if "volume" not in df.columns: df["volume"] = 1.0 for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") return df.dropna().reset_index(drop=True) def _feat(df): c, v = df["close"], df["volume"] f = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) for n in [1, 3, 6, 12, 24]: f[f"ret{n}"] = c.pct_change(n) f["volatility"] = c.pct_change().rolling(24).std() f["volume_z"] = (v - v.rolling(24).mean()) / (v.rolling(24).std() + 1e-9) f["ema_fast"] = (c.ewm(span=12, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=48, adjust=False).mean()) / c return f.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() def train(data, config): p = config.get("parameters", {}) df = _prep(data) x = _feat(df) fwd = df["close"].pct_change(int(p.get("horizon", 3))).shift(-int(p.get("horizon", 3))) threshold = float(p.get("threshold", 0.006)) y = pd.Series(1, index=df.index) y[fwd > threshold] = 2 y[fwd < -threshold] = 0 y = y.reindex(x.index).fillna(1).astype(int) model = Pipeline([("scaler", StandardScaler()), ("clf", LGBMClassifier(n_estimators=300, learning_rate=0.04, max_depth=5, random_state=42, verbose=-1))]) model.fit(x.values, y.values) return {"model": model, "features": list(x.columns)}, {"training_bars": int(len(x)), "class_dist": {"SELL": int((y == 0).sum()), "HOLD": int((y == 1).sum()), "BUY": int((y == 2).sum())}} def predict(model, market_data, config): candles = market_data.get("candles", []) if len(candles) < int(config.get("parameters", {}).get("lookback", 120)): return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0, "metadata": {"reason": "not_enough_candles"}} df = _prep(pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])) row = _feat(df).tail(1)[model["features"]] prob = model["model"].predict_proba(row.values)[0] k, conf = int(np.argmax(prob)), float(np.max(prob)) signal = {0: "DOWN", 1: "HOLD", 2: "UP"}[k] if conf >= float(config.get("parameters", {}).get("min_confidence", 0.46)) else "HOLD" return {"signal": signal, "confidence": round(conf, 4), "metadata": {"p_sell": round(float(prob[0]), 4), "p_hold": round(float(prob[1]), 4), "p_buy": round(float(prob[2]), 4)}}