import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler def _prep(data): df = data.copy() df.columns = [str(c).strip().lower() for c in df.columns] if "volume" not in df.columns: df["volume"] = 1.0 for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") return df.dropna(subset=["open", "high", "low", "close"]).reset_index(drop=True) def _atr(df, n=14): h, l, c = df["high"], df["low"], df["close"] tr = pd.concat([(h - l), (h - c.shift()).abs(), (l - c.shift()).abs()], axis=1).max(axis=1) return tr.ewm(span=n, adjust=False).mean() def _features(df): c = df["close"] v = df["volume"] ret = c.pct_change() f = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) for n in [1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32]: f[f"ret{n}"] = c.pct_change(n) f["atr_pct"] = _atr(df, 14) / c f["atr_expansion"] = (_atr(df, 8) / (_atr(df, 50) + 1e-9)).clip(0, 5) f["rv_12"] = ret.rolling(12).std() f["rv_48"] = ret.rolling(48).std() f["vol_regime"] = f["rv_12"] / (f["rv_48"] + 1e-9) f["volume_z"] = (v - v.rolling(48).mean()) / (v.rolling(48).std() + 1e-9) f["ema_9_34"] = (c.ewm(span=9, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=34, adjust=False).mean()) / c f["ema_21_89"] = (c.ewm(span=21, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=89, adjust=False).mean()) / c return f.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() def train(data, config): p = config.get("parameters", {}) df = _prep(data) x = _features(df) horizon = int(p.get("horizon", 3)) threshold = float(p.get("threshold", 0.004)) fwd = df["close"].pct_change(horizon).shift(-horizon) y = pd.Series(1, index=df.index) y[fwd > threshold] = 2 y[fwd < -threshold] = 0 y = y.reindex(x.index).fillna(1).astype(int) model = Pipeline([ ("scaler", StandardScaler()), ("clf", RandomForestClassifier( n_estimators=int(p.get("n_estimators", 300)), min_samples_leaf=int(p.get("min_samples_leaf", 8)), max_depth=int(p.get("max_depth", 8)), class_weight="balanced_subsample", random_state=42, n_jobs=-1, )), ]) model.fit(x.values, y.values) pred = model.predict(x.values) return { "model": model, "features": list(x.columns), }, { "training_bars": int(len(x)), "feature_count": int(x.shape[1]), "class_dist": {"SELL": int((y == 0).sum()), "HOLD": int((y == 1).sum()), "BUY": int((y == 2).sum())}, "buy_signals": int((pred == 2).sum()), "sell_signals": int((pred == 0).sum()), "hold_signals": int((pred == 1).sum()), } def predict(model, market_data, config): p = config.get("parameters", {}) candles = market_data.get("candles", []) if len(candles) < int(p.get("lookback", 120)): return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "not_enough_candles"}} df = _prep(pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])) row = _features(df).tail(1) if row.empty: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "no_features"}} prob = model["model"].predict_proba(row[model["features"]].values)[0] klass = int(np.argmax(prob)) conf = float(np.max(prob)) signal = {0: "DOWN", 1: "HOLD", 2: "UP"}[klass] if conf < float(p.get("min_confidence", 0.47)): signal = "HOLD" return {"signal": signal, "confidence": round(conf, 4), "metadata": {"p_sell": round(float(prob[0]), 4), "p_hold": round(float(prob[1]), 4), "p_buy": round(float(prob[2]), 4), "model": "ethusdt-volatility-classifier"}}