import numpy as np import pandas as pd from lightgbm import LGBMClassifier from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler SYMBOL = "ETHUSDT" MODEL_NAME = "ethusdt-adaptive-threshold-classifier-15m" def _normalise(data): df = data.copy() df.columns = [str(c).lower() for c in df.columns] if "volume" not in df.columns: df["volume"] = 1.0 for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors="coerce") return df.dropna().reset_index(drop=True) def _atr(df, n=14): h, l, c = df["high"], df["low"], df["close"] tr = pd.concat([(h - l), (h - c.shift()).abs(), (l - c.shift()).abs()], axis=1).max(axis=1) return tr.ewm(span=n, adjust=False).mean() def _features(df): c = df["close"] v = df["volume"] h = df["high"] l = df["low"] ret = c.pct_change() f = pd.DataFrame(index=df.index) # Basic returns for n in [1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32]: f[f"ret{n}"] = c.pct_change(n) # ATR-based features (from original) f["atr_pct"] = _atr(df, 14) / c f["atr_expansion"] = (_atr(df, 8) / (_atr(df, 50) + 1e-9)).clip(0, 5) f["rv_12"] = ret.rolling(12).std() f["rv_48"] = ret.rolling(48).std() f["vol_regime"] = f["rv_12"] / (f["rv_48"] + 1e-9) f["volume_z"] = (v - v.rolling(48).mean()) / (v.rolling(48).std() + 1e-9) f["ema_9_34"] = (c.ewm(span=9, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=34, adjust=False).mean()) / c f["ema_21_89"] = (c.ewm(span=21, adjust=False).mean() - c.ewm(span=89, adjust=False).mean()) / c # Adaptive threshold features # Dynamic threshold based on recent volatility f["adaptive_threshold"] = f["atr_pct"] * 2.0 # 2x ATR as threshold f["volatility_percentile"] = f["atr_pct"].rolling(100).apply( lambda x: pd.Series(x).rank(pct=True).iloc[-1] if len(x) > 0 else 0.5, raw=False) # Momentum features f["rsi"] = 100 - (100 / (1 + ret.rolling(14).apply( lambda x: x[x > 0].sum() / (-x[x < 0].sum() + 1e-9)))) # Price position in recent range f["price_position"] = (c - l.rolling(20).min()) / (h.rolling(20).max() - l.rolling(20).min()).replace(0, np.nan) # Volume-price correlation f["volume_price_corr"] = ret.rolling(20).corr(v.pct_change()) return f.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() def _labels(close, index, horizon, threshold): fwd = close.pct_change(horizon).shift(-horizon) y = pd.Series(1, index=close.index) y[fwd > threshold] = 2 y[fwd < -threshold] = 0 return y.reindex(index).fillna(1).astype(int) def train(data, config): params = config.get("parameters", {}) horizon = int(params.get("horizon", 3)) # 3 candles = 45 minutes for 15m timeframe threshold = float(params.get("threshold", 0.003)) # Base threshold, will be adapted df = _normalise(data) feat = _features(df) y = _labels(df["close"], feat.index, horizon, threshold) model = Pipeline([ ("scaler", StandardScaler()), ("clf", LGBMClassifier(n_estimators=300, learning_rate=0.05, max_depth=6, random_state=42, verbose=-1)) ]) model.fit(feat.values, y.values) metrics = { "training_bars": int(len(feat)), "feature_count": int(feat.shape[1]), "buy_signals": int((model.predict(feat.values) == 2).sum()), "sell_signals": int((model.predict(feat.values) == 0).sum()), "hold_signals": int((model.predict(feat.values) == 1).sum()), } return {"model": model, "features": list(feat.columns), "symbol": SYMBOL}, metrics def predict(model, market_data, config): params = config.get("parameters", {}) lookback = int(params.get("lookback", 100)) min_conf = float(params.get("min_confidence", 0.5)) candles = market_data.get("candles", []) if len(candles) < lookback: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "not_enough_candles", "model": MODEL_NAME}} df = _normalise(pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])) feat = _features(df).tail(1) if feat.empty: return {"signal": "HOLD", "confidence": 0.0, "metadata": {"reason": "no_features", "model": MODEL_NAME}} prob = model["model"].predict_proba(feat.values)[0] klass = int(np.argmax(prob)) conf = float(np.max(prob)) signal = {0: "DOWN", 1: "HOLD", 2: "UP"}[klass] if conf < min_conf: signal = "HOLD" return {"signal": signal, "confidence": round(conf, 4), "metadata": { "p_sell": round(float(prob[0]), 4), "p_hold": round(float(prob[1]), 4), "p_buy": round(float(prob[2]), 4), "model": MODEL_NAME, "symbol": SYMBOL }}