diff --git a/ideas/idea-092-gbpusd-walk-forward-ensemble-selection-1m.md b/ideas/idea-092-gbpusd-walk-forward-ensemble-selection-1m.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5bf090c --- /dev/null +++ b/ideas/idea-092-gbpusd-walk-forward-ensemble-selection-1m.md @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +# Idea 092: GBPUSD Walk-forward ensemble selection + +## Summary + +Document a PyP Quant strategy candidate for GBPUSD on 1m candles using a LogisticRegression approach focused on walk-forward ensemble selection. + +## Market Hypothesis + +GBPUSD may show repeatable behavior when walk-forward ensemble selection conditions align with volatility, trend, and recent structure filters. The first implementation should stay conservative and treat this as an educational research candidate, not a production trading recommendation. + +## Candidate Features + +- Recent return over 3, 6, and 12 bars. +- ATR-normalized candle range and close location value. +- Rolling volatility percentile over 50 and 200 bars. +- Distance from EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 200. +- Session flag or market-hours bucket where applicable. +- Prior swing high and swing low distance. + +## Label Design + +- Predict whether the forward 1m move exceeds an ATR-normalized threshold. +- Use neutral labels when the forward return is too small to justify risk. +- Tune the horizon separately for trend, range, and scalp variants. + +## Risk Controls + +- Require minimum confidence before emitting UP or DOWN. +- Block signals during abnormal spread, missing candles, or low-liquidity windows. +- Cap exposure per instrument and stop after a daily drawdown limit. +- Validate stop-loss and take-profit levels with PPE simulation before live use. + +## Backtest Checklist + +- Compare against HOLD and simple moving-average baselines. +- Run walk-forward splits with no future leakage. +- Inspect trade count, profit factor, max drawdown, win rate, and average adverse excursion. +- Review behavior by session, volatility regime, and weekday. + +## Implementation Notes + +This idea is intentionally Markdown-only. A future template can add `strategy.py`, `quant.config.json`, and a focused README once PPE results justify turning the idea into executable code. + +Closes #183