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zhutoutoutousan
2026-01-05 05:37:33 +01:00
parent 7d41b04aef
commit 5b44e14211
79 changed files with 19884 additions and 0 deletions
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paper/data/game_theory_full_results.csv
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paper/data/game_theory_meta_analysis.csv
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category,metric,value
retail_pnl,mean,8614729.4515151
retail_pnl,median,8631163.993755288
retail_pnl,std,1221404.5416973752
retail_pnl,min,5461509.966302657
retail_pnl,max,11248053.504957156
retail_pnl,win_rate,1.0
retail_pnl,sharpe,7.05313363215703
big_player_pnl,mean,-7956785.540934292
big_player_pnl,median,-8067419.647579128
big_player_pnl,std,1756542.1388380504
big_player_pnl,min,-12098888.920649894
big_player_pnl,max,-2028789.0074428658
big_player_pnl,win_rate,0.0
big_player_pnl,sharpe,-4.529800546770653
market_efficiency,mean,0.0
market_efficiency,median,0.0
market_efficiency,std,0.0
market_efficiency,min,0.0
market_efficiency,max,0.0
nash_equilibrium,mean_price,1373.3520869439653
nash_equilibrium,std_price,48.785408060992765
nash_equilibrium,mean_deviation,12.737137777832599
nash_equilibrium,mean_sentiment,0.4521046053554347
fomo_herding,avg_sentiment_volatility,0.1383601368593139
fomo_herding,avg_volume_volatility,33.55640988411156
fomo_herding,sentiment_volume_correlation,0.6772045810140649
fomo_herding,sentiment_volume_correlation_std,0.1179246963409413
exploitation,mean,0.048455310069913445
exploitation,median,0.05467332450371269
exploitation,std,0.03449441341865835
1 category metric value
2 retail_pnl mean 8614729.4515151
3 retail_pnl median 8631163.993755288
4 retail_pnl std 1221404.5416973752
5 retail_pnl min 5461509.966302657
6 retail_pnl max 11248053.504957156
7 retail_pnl win_rate 1.0
8 retail_pnl sharpe 7.05313363215703
9 big_player_pnl mean -7956785.540934292
10 big_player_pnl median -8067419.647579128
11 big_player_pnl std 1756542.1388380504
12 big_player_pnl min -12098888.920649894
13 big_player_pnl max -2028789.0074428658
14 big_player_pnl win_rate 0.0
15 big_player_pnl sharpe -4.529800546770653
16 market_efficiency mean 0.0
17 market_efficiency median 0.0
18 market_efficiency std 0.0
19 market_efficiency min 0.0
20 market_efficiency max 0.0
21 nash_equilibrium mean_price 1373.3520869439653
22 nash_equilibrium std_price 48.785408060992765
23 nash_equilibrium mean_deviation 12.737137777832599
24 nash_equilibrium mean_sentiment 0.4521046053554347
25 fomo_herding avg_sentiment_volatility 0.1383601368593139
26 fomo_herding avg_volume_volatility 33.55640988411156
27 fomo_herding sentiment_volume_correlation 0.6772045810140649
28 fomo_herding sentiment_volume_correlation_std 0.1179246963409413
29 exploitation mean 0.048455310069913445
30 exploitation median 0.05467332450371269
31 exploitation std 0.03449441341865835
paper/data/game_theory_nash_equilibria.csv
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1 equilibrium_price equilibrium_retail_sentiment price_deviation simulation
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64 1378.258948174364 0.43138438903894105 12.726105527730013 62
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101 1301.4655952106093 0.45898711389749713 12.077363508248334 99
paper/data/game_theory_per_game_summary.csv
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simulation,final_price,total_retail_pnl,total_big_player_pnl,avg_retail_sentiment,retail_sentiment_volatility,retail_volume_volatility,sentiment_volume_correlation,market_efficiency,equilibrium_price,equilibrium_sentiment
0,1334.5531299819029,8538663.550678484,-10567812.520247236,0.4873064727853758,0.17559767459909273,50.76720681981193,0.8413660459448429,0,1447.8733950268422,0.47801989901527603
1,1347.181372582273,8740457.350907166,-8045943.615315739,0.48668723820803,0.13669290026730158,34.69020868027012,0.731062550205287,0,1313.663535737757,0.445606239477453
2,1443.8478747572294,8934820.843645275,-5317451.379970444,0.4860867415056627,0.11280162465629424,20.835278765891452,0.4603502004461008,0,1361.4259559595214,0.41760991878726444
3,1356.426779671691,7718121.13239067,-7346043.6581982095,0.5112595533572952,0.11808230688719258,21.830162782883853,0.4756851222163644,0,1416.0626491538337,0.46289493154594
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94,1441.4751356664694,9120837.866142763,-8413300.10434283,0.49481654284878324,0.13566310737482093,32.96770303021884,0.7018913798743247,0,1464.4387227717746,0.4538567360172558
95,1478.2522122860535,10923298.952759968,-9743116.529335175,0.48776923263510646,0.14621861980720152,40.250360806629246,0.7383466636889376,0,1436.8984101766366,0.4711380136416546
96,1416.5792394914415,9010021.713256381,-10136195.234207047,0.49402461106608825,0.1343712316545898,30.581802030914414,0.6788065807231017,0,1437.5482383971946,0.4543299808687397
97,1450.7121895783473,10306168.865004288,-9192558.505706746,0.4922015060142475,0.13451308534935685,33.30060765083507,0.7258608318342297,0,1434.7789506443082,0.45895311486768636
98,1402.7908176313597,8136279.085640515,-6681888.633099125,0.4925172751313516,0.12027762673460478,21.946107601656152,0.5829771583614528,0,1428.8013416269525,0.4378173410609378
99,1330.1368778509707,9597380.737268595,-9217176.35268879,0.4836490687948424,0.16248449735080236,47.330326378745745,0.8124779855125113,0,1301.4655952106093,0.45898711389749713
1 simulation final_price total_retail_pnl total_big_player_pnl avg_retail_sentiment retail_sentiment_volatility retail_volume_volatility sentiment_volume_correlation market_efficiency equilibrium_price equilibrium_sentiment
2 0 1334.5531299819029 8538663.550678484 -10567812.520247236 0.4873064727853758 0.17559767459909273 50.76720681981193 0.8413660459448429 0 1447.8733950268422 0.47801989901527603
3 1 1347.181372582273 8740457.350907166 -8045943.615315739 0.48668723820803 0.13669290026730158 34.69020868027012 0.731062550205287 0 1313.663535737757 0.445606239477453
4 2 1443.8478747572294 8934820.843645275 -5317451.379970444 0.4860867415056627 0.11280162465629424 20.835278765891452 0.4603502004461008 0 1361.4259559595214 0.41760991878726444
5 3 1356.426779671691 7718121.13239067 -7346043.6581982095 0.5112595533572952 0.11808230688719258 21.830162782883853 0.4756851222163644 0 1416.0626491538337 0.46289493154594
6 4 1448.734542365047 10260905.066176381 -10783061.429217653 0.5048266304148424 0.1436055920715458 35.44763021118724 0.7098841721578628 0 1451.7907412152858 0.4860691633829841
7 5 1461.1061938321416 9255823.20537786 -7289155.1593855275 0.4979875210459448 0.11774407120561121 21.3497981925947 0.4596498776217032 0 1474.0938626905786 0.4656986188710589
8 6 1334.8039571862969 8613843.231625123 -8551452.161241364 0.4839422095466989 0.1646550176630392 49.73766446605985 0.8246107908768068 0 1388.7414915334284 0.46310274882935926
9 7 1355.9829198071407 8909909.910612196 -8434039.553810185 0.5017448755476411 0.12274908717815863 21.8741634736089 0.5496247836612803 0 1314.4278578987771 0.4543068663205997
10 8 1299.2882716409792 7772110.710805373 -8289241.963086789 0.47663615729460623 0.18256008237486293 55.599719260483354 0.8475401322319229 0 1368.9303722958962 0.46678858127207823
11 9 1466.6717792191073 10631767.670595724 -9264632.536214754 0.49814070584989795 0.13939662433325156 36.223485906859985 0.7650991354540387 0 1455.4745585540472 0.4572452629310465
12 10 1429.190534755681 10118208.189294808 -11696499.039782014 0.49790904782903395 0.1412513461496078 34.04110351080368 0.67134385750234 0 1373.5786248578934 0.4544788059619787
13 11 1417.8331080533326 9218737.684892975 -9961098.165220387 0.5053605406973568 0.12454653606916755 24.799629757891203 0.5821655758604377 0 1418.9466602426405 0.44573521492839296
14 12 1329.0945961692173 8523155.631481657 -8340068.860587724 0.5000925739446243 0.1290570106044845 24.45106011366567 0.6529020344692885 0 1336.3272772704308 0.452065871379423
15 13 1464.490258493867 10195769.120048247 -7099834.390439872 0.5072653302771049 0.11549727410835064 21.332583111495133 0.4761159656183557 0 1443.2416417963482 0.4698238557843468
16 14 1338.8496379510298 7475966.0556102265 -7401725.6662732465 0.46483350427564113 0.1695054668118581 51.835333679143716 0.817446679230841 0 1392.6381229641108 0.4414853017802744
17 15 1292.0345937646848 6811355.380903413 -6215771.900021982 0.4702516721944348 0.15713328378244468 45.08094751328537 0.7786993986534929 0 1323.162880553666 0.4390131126074001
18 16 1412.5298602137384 9320573.506780151 -8833800.645659188 0.49695990415225216 0.14350771848585273 37.40951472679465 0.7325734414720264 0 1468.599884042251 0.45923814426462883
19 17 1350.3804533318755 8390795.883600645 -8841066.75616963 0.48410835067418795 0.16026372753757903 48.16514660576826 0.8076218336769443 0 1350.5576952918793 0.4437768911352807
20 18 1353.8880797353158 8250940.562517967 -5332564.244718521 0.47739075198807074 0.1449370565718803 40.6604420024838 0.7779273579324755 0 1321.0256338037009 0.4338254980999315
21 19 1387.888482139497 9813460.816965807 -8668163.091407077 0.48655877231446004 0.14770384854161295 40.434764227335066 0.8001981770781221 0 1360.9052240153403 0.4622389074871943
22 20 1348.2968122066536 7615444.018921256 -6877883.375153725 0.5061587981253968 0.1169411691502462 21.502982985139585 0.47246758755638996 0 1381.96784411268 0.45796482748458195
23 21 1306.1686826448918 6701112.384087701 -7270314.695597567 0.5011037189908241 0.12261214868558168 22.34340701188716 0.5256134422121052 0 1322.260329766525 0.43025988786243385
24 22 1312.2115760432778 7153262.543439625 -7187735.791851051 0.49828430306576016 0.12899483002553122 25.019269101903294 0.6703145935202827 0 1371.9104903070024 0.4437538074689534
25 23 1389.9736680471026 9044373.037421072 -8250101.404969409 0.48521178020290257 0.15068469731033937 41.16005586952965 0.7737035696047103 0 1392.4784021937016 0.4600902606620035
26 24 1286.7205785752114 6916143.746288855 -6910263.708224738 0.4872155275332052 0.14262727870906508 36.21878103600047 0.747346380449183 0 1370.7124085280252 0.4540354787611542
27 25 1343.1907359580393 8903191.196591515 -10746782.531812651 0.4818355889401554 0.17851118835064222 53.35385909010516 0.8455522612964729 0 1394.0130957440156 0.47039125819553734
28 26 1346.2805321971216 9332112.756028192 -9575560.225914387 0.5022946730279984 0.13721957539987414 33.235343349008396 0.6453538798272516 0 1339.052258249983 0.46556415004463575
29 27 1339.7584804552794 8449474.297751566 -8890910.048139896 0.48897810886739224 0.14355756320049753 36.97191221085066 0.73237459568682 0 1358.4278306235958 0.44899860164203426
30 28 1345.1244398366684 8201787.530869359 -6720551.877655807 0.47268196222274367 0.14709697797608548 40.50036617989828 0.7442535601826906 0 1396.6526661056973 0.44167193867851096
31 29 1389.907112246384 9558779.4084837 -9586752.407771593 0.5111799386955211 0.12045051860796156 23.728272316416987 0.4895543674336325 0 1390.3191912198383 0.47473490194617013
32 30 1346.9219534679155 8402411.644822713 -9040492.928120432 0.4979865481942812 0.14492077259588146 36.120792894107424 0.742723636559463 0 1362.0786914284556 0.4531051970655923
33 31 1504.0128124723922 11248053.504957154 -10809475.198359782 0.5048707999730357 0.12740218711887447 27.163509097885047 0.6450347097900759 0 1398.6915149138053 0.46764620192072853
34 32 1212.1002996972697 5763663.117027633 -6106730.221122099 0.491400671435149 0.11984631858272021 21.904576293594147 0.5368141870154858 0 1285.7798492616669 0.4335114728926592
35 33 1386.193498285732 9649508.232067727 -10108618.085532382 0.5047635044935125 0.1462121436794625 37.43792246225126 0.7797263229356967 0 1380.4644626510726 0.4722628463498135
36 34 1301.9022334373124 7440655.914297966 -6872749.787200848 0.4950139443865688 0.1228867765772828 23.12786183808376 0.6016550517803871 0 1338.3420518018584 0.4474879227143614
37 35 1455.703370132258 8502572.682465747 -6004273.469153947 0.4981156519006676 0.11402036786710826 21.03654379070399 0.45672528248202116 0 1429.1656220179534 0.4454024743396629
38 36 1370.9168860009597 9429820.994721135 -9785396.299975824 0.5023365499080188 0.13064681361097452 27.28562398579973 0.6443034317025297 0 1316.9866676649976 0.45163631176134533
39 37 1500.148434186434 11215184.593103329 -8567393.518601593 0.4954898672200253 0.1257238476716368 24.689561020966966 0.6548898904315501 0 1442.7250361218337 0.46782970787894057
40 38 1355.3654984230295 8455223.874551727 -8749866.083502064 0.4849601094937233 0.15659252409289054 44.94479271558519 0.7902756992998764 0 1393.6737906519124 0.454548753344781
41 39 1407.5308568467717 9695601.925396604 -9562130.207706565 0.4939300793252477 0.1576046806051865 43.92888208607774 0.7943641312894787 0 1393.7039940721593 0.4678702390206391
42 40 1451.8351507277862 9875729.34925285 -7883031.171169614 0.48503800492277216 0.14135763029574866 36.79048828024231 0.7535396582095706 0 1423.8114040840742 0.4543604303922943
43 41 1366.8636367183278 8452013.196655586 -7767439.946019993 0.4921291441752594 0.13268728234770347 31.149288551432708 0.6763036468943535 0 1354.206069928975 0.44226494251652043
44 42 1319.0209715131637 7566897.376200336 -8208874.176830001 0.5170899419806422 0.12023336850016857 21.693531567536105 0.4861380660626831 0 1400.7181785684643 0.4664853657554793
45 43 1354.3455542475208 7678877.238731557 -6305656.370763706 0.5000338936116165 0.11595432679931363 21.07532234199121 0.46947580757309626 0 1329.568180782063 0.44215213271073833
46 44 1286.3745545934858 5537690.064275363 -2028789.0074428658 0.475464890504099 0.11050284127082513 20.534478056085664 0.4442387075394097 0 1325.4618983417672 0.4175282018234954
47 45 1383.0451849639005 9136646.664203452 -8547688.06050946 0.4913152541894095 0.14518618783136014 37.19177380506461 0.7487349003549015 0 1390.009320261334 0.4575311946450212
48 46 1373.4476171414922 8626335.933596635 -8120844.054197156 0.49289924655274986 0.13827486027941305 34.34196274737538 0.6662302789096499 0 1357.0889077887116 0.4396807874735435
49 47 1361.9004696823379 8635992.05391394 -8053337.554801067 0.49755367462395406 0.12571714190677166 23.321450106267903 0.6022413493386214 0 1335.337644331878 0.45601994884828834
50 48 1427.7605109934645 9006646.559124853 -7119872.549069271 0.49251047850195695 0.11371165019080415 22.392736436441474 0.463810340481642 0 1409.0464657201403 0.4371366033181275
51 49 1232.8251914476873 7160439.787246127 -7731212.605018027 0.4939099746590862 0.1432787856991762 36.51523335537383 0.729378370944694 0 1265.201640639625 0.441063300880349
52 50 1386.1251795158923 9635265.387650147 -9753984.356964162 0.4969512124674916 0.14769022393679807 36.94995201516179 0.7518987993489127 0 1355.8638874751846 0.4617934477133493
53 51 1437.3105272725256 10108442.722160941 -7171908.443693737 0.5021599813604649 0.11746016374417065 21.923238932185967 0.5675381506947705 0 1369.5262004471883 0.4645157820748979
54 52 1362.1854735795423 8027363.415150201 -5797372.456524908 0.47413273030810865 0.1545734808885145 44.90250452697583 0.7871994347995076 0 1345.4340372012095 0.4417527052714022
55 53 1433.6464643245836 10049623.23348878 -10237717.720532663 0.49560466894955646 0.15184025574458127 43.27811844697392 0.7709575693482023 0 1437.2902373216382 0.46069647655479506
56 54 1427.3176073371492 9052787.17357565 -8464198.80366773 0.49494835273001614 0.12192525048129271 24.56441461732739 0.6302231055766213 0 1455.8658954755329 0.44666986080671256
57 55 1341.7488259066488 8556084.709967723 -9101098.40076696 0.49754523982929955 0.13430646629543272 32.52379159978048 0.7166598279912367 0 1340.831265749096 0.45207543974288356
58 56 1395.6578644173205 8955003.22860884 -4955847.24544667 0.48801196660635016 0.11259265305542714 20.90044385308888 0.46085357532378307 0 1330.761367580891 0.45123277191185335
59 57 1367.7187485033435 8786687.548429178 -8536792.024100812 0.5128370646071644 0.1191230091176826 21.502498661010087 0.4820907733329839 0 1333.5950965870184 0.4620912392086873
60 58 1422.4771007508423 9863243.073029058 -7760855.348301851 0.47842431745950015 0.15522565016034676 44.04732582975304 0.8086442699817582 0 1387.7377424627548 0.4506737464698286
61 59 1318.8439987315605 7136299.393734901 -6043100.238893595 0.46209842452609734 0.1838942633291262 57.96215188610348 0.8468189312096372 0 1322.9812300661229 0.4374723305460012
62 60 1358.8816283030028 8723551.25685673 -7338406.934939845 0.49097691522109654 0.13637582996995573 32.016214268040784 0.7217378407301027 0 1340.0035637967069 0.4441162707228317
63 61 1289.3916227546285 7409561.271513923 -7409065.615204027 0.4913153200563924 0.14332356960560297 35.64966069732459 0.6999780625025449 0 1350.9936622855726 0.4527439311973239
64 62 1364.498667741881 7983189.695031407 -4445434.952241466 0.4741137569999341 0.1176885657990684 23.182999152122697 0.6369170323368237 0 1378.258948174364 0.43138438903894105
65 63 1320.3369999393717 8272967.887068387 -7688551.769448651 0.46905831460797454 0.1754163851979239 53.11870387437581 0.8393435519655682 0 1328.4681298769676 0.44060454287797174
66 64 1352.1483564863122 8752192.236882742 -7966592.660107628 0.4853224980237873 0.1548452470468789 42.59632397844714 0.7900569394673211 0 1346.497914022904 0.46170633654711357
67 65 1336.3971508025213 7314946.976863022 -7715979.293870401 0.49393342205882235 0.13331676030996506 31.081993502839634 0.6574760252929415 0 1380.0703068012142 0.43461344137606844
68 66 1310.0049797100583 6913136.1599321775 -6263910.356138324 0.5004225059474928 0.11712558674637798 21.948514711274328 0.47167023059241303 0 1321.4571827599696 0.44216801893783764
69 67 1486.101119211978 11136083.21574244 -11941623.176681455 0.4858549615048351 0.18172536819644722 53.92412750639961 0.8492457883296618 0 1449.0695281637886 0.48315594500470044
70 68 1212.7582702960758 6096325.653397747 -6405858.76748255 0.49187759721960495 0.13650753710060004 32.94217741899682 0.7028407719375658 0 1249.2500796341183 0.43252737477591036
71 69 1414.4064567566213 8367184.7403790355 -6165360.492518427 0.49046483040707645 0.12129546403685398 23.059139510292667 0.6266954801847798 0 1385.427512073855 0.43582395560405
72 70 1259.6764108122118 6628402.968572983 -8156365.298031117 0.49089296471011523 0.13987140016841232 33.72670425643056 0.6873404064046542 0 1324.34185146344 0.4365163236730455
73 71 1468.2145586795243 9406214.90736325 -6016332.897432581 0.49403427307272907 0.11213966815322293 20.51946992752466 0.463971309835231 0 1443.9885467541696 0.4586155632505039
74 72 1363.6970950664186 8071539.801564656 -7031085.413220679 0.48372187705231795 0.13728907144005728 34.926107075679504 0.6993156394487501 0 1380.5943849119997 0.44368273441961925
75 73 1312.0300713278743 7905292.928078511 -8590112.363515824 0.4972033350640247 0.13578825737061218 31.53170813103009 0.6940965208559994 0 1373.4575392908378 0.4701312334596417
76 74 1360.064863874254 9150312.614414137 -9471185.369880281 0.5137330120556376 0.1270081689727473 24.187078803488582 0.648341293303997 0 1371.0754868035424 0.4649615122456692
77 75 1244.6599612046791 5461509.966302657 -6316765.5328871 0.4828351208790782 0.15085286128020817 40.68364900206108 0.7505995612038247 0 1340.9105538450317 0.4301428897161423
78 76 1299.0521104974423 7546161.945453759 -7153783.742055117 0.4892547273889031 0.14024006734537237 36.63542610245759 0.7126494440283409 0 1358.3266359001766 0.45685432196153786
79 77 1435.07443240129 9876621.641546307 -8403094.39308795 0.4922957069228228 0.13549794024316425 31.64229313140645 0.70711378638793 0 1420.1330374813558 0.4598375321400079
80 78 1373.7651637239685 7417152.453249154 -3376143.7200010954 0.44852199942409093 0.1760363459483511 59.66511090113522 0.8472011029983096 0 1356.4379236793218 0.42626478349112906
81 79 1385.9338207513722 8613101.572095832 -9526471.05713873 0.4832890657289796 0.16692451656392857 48.11511694472734 0.7921755511467742 0 1401.765466005601 0.46143227219617505
82 80 1415.1381926019499 8715447.719830355 -8368982.572865687 0.4858735105610342 0.137724771139173 32.57054719593178 0.7170607824345318 0 1417.2165185605998 0.45419889994726415
83 81 1414.1535690350333 9239206.370572936 -6562308.379885715 0.5051233258217455 0.11531618171367417 21.44664019669483 0.47098415700196683 0 1379.4458313798962 0.44698132799131385
84 82 1466.911330962389 10150786.67408342 -7473477.79475407 0.5035315776764063 0.11630529902207483 22.005810879300693 0.4763751781383087 0 1424.510302102315 0.4644608930614276
85 83 1364.6602962468296 9324214.704282897 -6518888.120004928 0.4864469370316258 0.13761522125544917 35.20529100121936 0.7239236674619852 0 1326.5546985598946 0.45114214523950985
86 84 1347.8472038626364 8481050.489589171 -9059619.195447544 0.4868011359424531 0.1397479957258639 34.006163208158505 0.7407803792276575 0 1341.3022096990337 0.4376963116800946
87 85 1317.3874167201154 7362772.053161179 -6887343.297364369 0.48559300101630976 0.1405586094501818 36.63772258535156 0.7212021657538173 0 1339.6319611697677 0.4342183267179811
88 86 1271.9763329753898 6616261.865783306 -4728617.682443415 0.49098232992763274 0.12733989466758594 27.195575420197265 0.6487634915425831 0 1307.8694323317086 0.43698345018237683
89 87 1405.2276224374375 10679514.013448551 -12098888.920649894 0.5082981958594361 0.14142953284991758 34.44427781280378 0.7478062750723347 0 1416.24588646309 0.47526208701173933
90 88 1352.6694014207123 8156196.119415605 -8081501.740357192 0.4964196854263618 0.1306988382438878 29.13343524965282 0.6909848362896432 0 1373.1881616055648 0.4501428102080031
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