Add 6 Polymarket trading skills with paper trading engine

Composable Agent Skills (SKILL.md format) for Polymarket prediction market
trading. Includes scanner, analyzer, monitor, paper trader, strategy advisor,
and live executor. All tested against live Polymarket APIs. Security audited
with all HIGH/MEDIUM findings resolved.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Polymarket Skills Builder
2026-02-26 07:25:07 +00:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 4.6
parent 6a03bbe2e5
commit 068b2adc75
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Paper Trade Executor
Higher-level wrapper around paper_engine that takes structured trade
recommendations (e.g., from a strategy advisor) and executes them as
paper trades with full validation.
"""
import argparse
import json
import os
import sys
from datetime import datetime, timezone
# Import from paper_engine (same directory)
_THIS_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
if _THIS_DIR not in sys.path:
sys.path.append(_THIS_DIR)
from paper_engine import (
get_portfolio,
place_order,
close_position,
fetch_midpoint,
DEFAULT_FEE_RATE,
)
def execute_recommendation(
recommendation: dict,
portfolio_name: str = "default",
dry_run: bool = False,
) -> dict:
"""
Execute a trade recommendation from a strategy advisor.
Expected recommendation format:
{
"token_id": "...",
"side": "YES" or "NO",
"action": "BUY" or "SELL" or "CLOSE",
"size_usd": 50.0, # USD amount (for BUY)
"size_pct": 0.05, # OR as % of portfolio (alternative to size_usd)
"price": 0.45, # optional limit price
"confidence": 0.75, # strategy confidence 0-1
"reasoning": "...", # why this trade
"strategy": "momentum", # which strategy generated this
"fee_rate": 0.0, # optional fee override
}
Returns execution result dict.
"""
token_id = recommendation.get("token_id")
if not token_id:
return {"status": "rejected", "reason": "Missing token_id"}
action = recommendation.get("action", "BUY").upper()
side = recommendation.get("side", "YES").upper()
confidence = recommendation.get("confidence", 0.5)
reasoning = recommendation.get("reasoning", "")
strategy = recommendation.get("strategy", "unknown")
fee_rate = recommendation.get("fee_rate", DEFAULT_FEE_RATE)
price = recommendation.get("price")
# Build reasoning string
full_reasoning = f"[{strategy}] (conf={confidence:.0%}) {reasoning}"
# Get current portfolio state
try:
portfolio = get_portfolio(portfolio_name, refresh_prices=True)
except RuntimeError as exc:
return {"status": "rejected", "reason": str(exc)}
# Confidence gate
min_confidence = 0.5
if confidence < min_confidence:
return {
"status": "rejected",
"reason": f"Confidence {confidence:.0%} below minimum {min_confidence:.0%}",
"recommendation": recommendation,
}
# Handle CLOSE action
if action == "CLOSE":
if dry_run:
return {
"status": "dry_run",
"action": "CLOSE",
"token_id": token_id,
"side": side,
"portfolio": _summary(portfolio),
}
try:
result = close_position(
token_id=token_id,
side=side if side in ("YES", "NO") else None,
portfolio_name=portfolio_name,
fee_rate=fee_rate,
reasoning=full_reasoning,
)
return {
"status": "executed",
"action": "CLOSE",
"result": result,
"portfolio": _summary(
get_portfolio(portfolio_name, refresh_prices=False)
),
}
except RuntimeError as exc:
return {"status": "rejected", "reason": str(exc)}
# Determine size in USD
size_usd = recommendation.get("size_usd")
size_pct = recommendation.get("size_pct")
if size_usd is None and size_pct is not None:
size_usd = portfolio["total_value"] * size_pct
elif size_usd is None:
# Default: Kelly-inspired sizing based on confidence
# Half-Kelly: f = (2p - 1) where p = confidence, then halved
kelly_fraction = max(0, (2 * confidence - 1)) * 0.5
# Cap at 10% of portfolio
kelly_fraction = min(kelly_fraction, 0.10)
size_usd = portfolio["total_value"] * kelly_fraction
if size_usd <= 0:
return {
"status": "rejected",
"reason": "Calculated trade size is zero (confidence too low for Kelly sizing)",
}
# Round to 2 decimal places
size_usd = round(size_usd, 2)
# Get current market price for context
try:
current_price = fetch_midpoint(token_id)
except Exception:
current_price = None
if dry_run:
return {
"status": "dry_run",
"action": action,
"side": side,
"token_id": token_id,
"size_usd": size_usd,
"limit_price": price,
"current_price": current_price,
"confidence": confidence,
"strategy": strategy,
"reasoning": full_reasoning,
"portfolio": _summary(portfolio),
}
# Execute the trade
try:
result = place_order(
token_id=token_id,
side=side,
size=size_usd,
price=price,
reasoning=full_reasoning,
portfolio_name=portfolio_name,
fee_rate=fee_rate,
)
# Get updated portfolio
updated = get_portfolio(portfolio_name, refresh_prices=False)
return {
"status": "executed",
"action": action,
"result": result,
"portfolio": _summary(updated),
}
except RuntimeError as exc:
return {
"status": "rejected",
"reason": str(exc),
"attempted": {
"token_id": token_id,
"side": side,
"size_usd": size_usd,
"price": price,
},
}
def _summary(portfolio: dict) -> dict:
"""Compact portfolio summary for trade results."""
return {
"total_value": portfolio["total_value"],
"cash_balance": portfolio["cash_balance"],
"pnl": portfolio["pnl"],
"pnl_pct": portfolio["pnl_pct"],
"num_positions": portfolio["num_open_positions"],
}
def execute_batch(
recommendations: list[dict],
portfolio_name: str = "default",
dry_run: bool = False,
) -> list[dict]:
"""Execute a batch of recommendations sequentially."""
results = []
for rec in recommendations:
result = execute_recommendation(rec, portfolio_name, dry_run)
results.append(result)
# Stop on risk limit errors
if result["status"] == "rejected" and "drawdown" in result.get("reason", ""):
for remaining in recommendations[len(results):]:
results.append({
"status": "skipped",
"reason": "Trading halted due to drawdown limit",
"recommendation": remaining,
})
break
return results
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# CLI
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def main():
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
description="Execute paper trade recommendations",
formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter,
epilog="""
Examples:
# Execute a single recommendation from JSON string
%(prog)s --recommendation '{"token_id":"ABC","side":"YES","size_usd":50,"confidence":0.8}'
# Execute from a JSON file
%(prog)s --file recommendations.json
# Dry run (no actual trades)
%(prog)s --recommendation '{"token_id":"ABC","side":"YES","size_usd":50}' --dry-run
""",
)
parser.add_argument("--recommendation", help="JSON trade recommendation")
parser.add_argument("--file", help="JSON file with recommendation(s)")
parser.add_argument("--portfolio", default="default", help="Portfolio name")
parser.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true",
help="Validate without executing")
parser.add_argument("--json", action="store_true", help="JSON output")
args = parser.parse_args()
if not args.recommendation and not args.file:
parser.error("Provide --recommendation or --file")
try:
if args.file:
with open(args.file) as f:
data = json.load(f)
if isinstance(data, list):
results = execute_batch(data, args.portfolio, args.dry_run)
else:
results = [execute_recommendation(data, args.portfolio, args.dry_run)]
else:
rec = json.loads(args.recommendation)
if isinstance(rec, list):
results = execute_batch(rec, args.portfolio, args.dry_run)
else:
results = [execute_recommendation(rec, args.portfolio, args.dry_run)]
if args.json:
print(json.dumps(results if len(results) > 1 else results[0], indent=2))
else:
for r in results:
status = r["status"].upper()
if r["status"] == "executed":
res = r["result"]
if isinstance(res, dict):
print(
f"[{status}] {res.get('action','?')} {res.get('side','?')} "
f"{res.get('shares', 0):.2f} shares @ "
f"${res.get('avg_price', res.get('avg_sell_price', 0)):.4f}"
)
else:
print(f"[{status}] {json.dumps(res)}")
pf = r.get("portfolio", {})
print(
f" Portfolio: ${pf.get('total_value', 0):,.2f} "
f"({pf.get('pnl_pct', 0):+.2f}%)"
)
elif r["status"] == "dry_run":
print(
f"[DRY RUN] Would {r.get('action','?')} "
f"{r.get('side','?')} ${r.get('size_usd', 0):.2f} "
f"(price: {r.get('current_price', '?')})"
)
else:
print(f"[{status}] {r.get('reason', 'Unknown error')}")
except (json.JSONDecodeError, FileNotFoundError) as exc:
print(f"ERROR: {exc}", file=sys.stderr)
sys.exit(1)
except (RuntimeError, ValueError) as exc:
print(f"ERROR: {exc}", file=sys.stderr)
sys.exit(1)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Portfolio Performance Report
Generates detailed analytics for a paper trading portfolio:
- Total and annualized return
- Win rate, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio
- Max drawdown, average trade duration
- Best/worst trades
- Output as formatted text or JSON
"""
import argparse
import json
import math
import sqlite3
import sys
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
import os
_THIS_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
if _THIS_DIR not in sys.path:
sys.path.append(_THIS_DIR)
from paper_engine import (
DB_PATH,
_get_db,
_active_portfolio,
get_portfolio,
)
def generate_report(portfolio_name: str = "default") -> dict:
"""Generate a full performance report for the portfolio."""
conn = _get_db()
try:
pf = _active_portfolio(conn, portfolio_name)
pid = pf["id"]
starting = pf["starting_balance"]
# Get current state with live prices
current = get_portfolio(portfolio_name, refresh_prices=True)
# ----- Trade analysis -----
trades = conn.execute(
"""SELECT * FROM trades WHERE portfolio_id = ?
ORDER BY executed_at ASC""",
(pid,),
).fetchall()
trades = [dict(t) for t in trades]
# Match buys to sells to compute per-trade P&L
closed_trades = _match_trades(trades)
open_positions = current["positions"]
# ----- Daily snapshots -----
snapshots = conn.execute(
"""SELECT * FROM daily_snapshots WHERE portfolio_id = ?
ORDER BY date ASC""",
(pid,),
).fetchall()
snapshots = [dict(s) for s in snapshots]
# ----- Core metrics -----
total_value = current["total_value"]
total_return = (total_value - starting) / starting if starting else 0
# Time-based calculations
created = datetime.fromisoformat(pf["created_at"].replace("Z", "+00:00"))
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
days_active = max((now - created).days, 1)
years_active = days_active / 365.25
annualized_return = (
((1 + total_return) ** (1 / years_active) - 1)
if years_active > 0 and total_return > -1 else 0
)
# Win rate
winning = [t for t in closed_trades if t["pnl"] > 0]
losing = [t for t in closed_trades if t["pnl"] <= 0]
win_rate = len(winning) / len(closed_trades) if closed_trades else 0
# Average P&L
avg_win = (
sum(t["pnl"] for t in winning) / len(winning) if winning else 0
)
avg_loss = (
sum(t["pnl"] for t in losing) / len(losing) if losing else 0
)
# Profit factor
gross_profit = sum(t["pnl"] for t in winning)
gross_loss = abs(sum(t["pnl"] for t in losing))
profit_factor = gross_profit / gross_loss if gross_loss > 0 else float("inf")
# ----- Drawdown from snapshots -----
equity_curve = [starting]
if snapshots:
equity_curve = [s["total_value"] for s in snapshots]
max_drawdown, max_dd_duration = _compute_drawdown(equity_curve)
# ----- Sharpe & Sortino from daily returns -----
daily_returns = _daily_returns(snapshots, starting)
sharpe = _sharpe_ratio(daily_returns)
sortino = _sortino_ratio(daily_returns)
# ----- Average trade duration -----
durations = []
for ct in closed_trades:
if ct.get("open_time") and ct.get("close_time"):
try:
t_open = datetime.fromisoformat(
ct["open_time"].replace("Z", "+00:00")
)
t_close = datetime.fromisoformat(
ct["close_time"].replace("Z", "+00:00")
)
durations.append((t_close - t_open).total_seconds() / 3600)
except (ValueError, TypeError):
pass
avg_duration_hours = (
sum(durations) / len(durations) if durations else 0
)
# ----- Best / Worst trades -----
sorted_by_pnl = sorted(closed_trades, key=lambda t: t["pnl"], reverse=True)
best_trades = sorted_by_pnl[:3] if sorted_by_pnl else []
worst_trades = sorted_by_pnl[-3:][::-1] if sorted_by_pnl else []
# ----- Fees -----
total_fees = sum(t.get("fee", 0) for t in trades)
report = {
"portfolio_name": portfolio_name,
"generated_at": now.isoformat(),
"days_active": days_active,
"summary": {
"starting_balance": starting,
"current_value": total_value,
"cash_balance": current["cash_balance"],
"positions_value": current["positions_value"],
"total_return_usd": round(total_value - starting, 2),
"total_return_pct": round(total_return * 100, 2),
"annualized_return_pct": round(annualized_return * 100, 2),
},
"risk_metrics": {
"sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe, 3),
"sortino_ratio": round(sortino, 3),
"max_drawdown_pct": round(max_drawdown * 100, 2),
"max_drawdown_duration_days": max_dd_duration,
"current_drawdown_pct": current["drawdown_pct"],
},
"trade_metrics": {
"total_trades": len(trades),
"closed_trades": len(closed_trades),
"open_positions": len(open_positions),
"win_rate_pct": round(win_rate * 100, 1),
"avg_win_usd": round(avg_win, 2),
"avg_loss_usd": round(avg_loss, 2),
"profit_factor": round(profit_factor, 2),
"total_fees_usd": round(total_fees, 2),
"avg_trade_duration_hours": round(avg_duration_hours, 1),
},
"best_trades": [
_trade_summary(t) for t in best_trades
],
"worst_trades": [
_trade_summary(t) for t in worst_trades
],
"open_positions": [
{
"market": p["market_question"],
"side": p["side"],
"shares": p["shares"],
"entry": p["avg_entry"],
"current": p["current_price"],
"unrealized_pnl": p["unrealized_pnl"],
}
for p in open_positions
],
}
return report
finally:
conn.close()
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Analytics helpers
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _match_trades(trades: list[dict]) -> list[dict]:
"""
Match BUY and SELL trades on the same token/side to compute
per-round-trip P&L.
"""
# Group buys by (token_id, side)
open_lots: dict[tuple, list] = {}
closed: list[dict] = []
for t in trades:
key = (t["token_id"], t["side"])
if t["action"] == "BUY":
if key not in open_lots:
open_lots[key] = []
open_lots[key].append({
"shares": t["shares"],
"price": t["price"],
"fee": t["fee"],
"time": t["executed_at"],
"market": t.get("market_question", ""),
"reasoning": t.get("reasoning", ""),
})
elif t["action"] == "SELL":
lots = open_lots.get(key, [])
remaining = t["shares"]
sell_price = t["price"]
sell_fee = t["fee"]
sell_time = t["executed_at"]
while remaining > 0.0001 and lots:
lot = lots[0]
matched = min(remaining, lot["shares"])
pnl = (sell_price - lot["price"]) * matched - (
lot["fee"] * (matched / lot["shares"]) if lot["shares"] > 0 else 0
) - (
sell_fee * (matched / t["shares"]) if t["shares"] > 0 else 0
)
closed.append({
"token_id": t["token_id"],
"side": t["side"],
"market": lot["market"],
"shares": round(matched, 4),
"entry_price": lot["price"],
"exit_price": sell_price,
"pnl": round(pnl, 4),
"pnl_pct": round(
(sell_price - lot["price"]) / lot["price"] * 100, 2
) if lot["price"] > 0 else 0,
"open_time": lot["time"],
"close_time": sell_time,
"reasoning": lot["reasoning"],
})
lot["shares"] -= matched
remaining -= matched
if lot["shares"] < 0.0001:
lots.pop(0)
return closed
def _compute_drawdown(equity_curve: list[float]) -> tuple[float, int]:
"""Compute max drawdown and its duration in days."""
if not equity_curve or len(equity_curve) < 2:
return 0.0, 0
peak = equity_curve[0]
max_dd = 0.0
dd_start = 0
max_dd_duration = 0
current_dd_start = 0
for i, value in enumerate(equity_curve):
if value >= peak:
peak = value
duration = i - current_dd_start
max_dd_duration = max(max_dd_duration, duration)
current_dd_start = i
else:
dd = (peak - value) / peak
if dd > max_dd:
max_dd = dd
dd_start = current_dd_start
# Check if still in drawdown
if equity_curve[-1] < peak:
duration = len(equity_curve) - 1 - current_dd_start
max_dd_duration = max(max_dd_duration, duration)
return max_dd, max_dd_duration
def _daily_returns(
snapshots: list[dict],
starting_balance: float,
) -> list[float]:
"""Extract daily return series from snapshots."""
if not snapshots:
return []
values = [starting_balance] + [s["total_value"] for s in snapshots]
returns = []
for i in range(1, len(values)):
if values[i - 1] > 0:
returns.append((values[i] - values[i - 1]) / values[i - 1])
return returns
def _sharpe_ratio(
daily_returns: list[float],
risk_free_daily: float = 0.0001, # ~3.7% annual
) -> float:
"""Annualized Sharpe ratio from daily returns."""
if len(daily_returns) < 2:
return 0.0
excess = [r - risk_free_daily for r in daily_returns]
mean_excess = sum(excess) / len(excess)
variance = sum((r - mean_excess) ** 2 for r in excess) / (len(excess) - 1)
std = math.sqrt(variance) if variance > 0 else 0
if std == 0:
return 0.0
return (mean_excess / std) * math.sqrt(252)
def _sortino_ratio(
daily_returns: list[float],
risk_free_daily: float = 0.0001,
) -> float:
"""Annualized Sortino ratio (uses downside deviation only)."""
if len(daily_returns) < 2:
return 0.0
excess = [r - risk_free_daily for r in daily_returns]
mean_excess = sum(excess) / len(excess)
downside = [min(0, r) ** 2 for r in excess]
downside_dev = math.sqrt(sum(downside) / len(downside)) if downside else 0
if downside_dev == 0:
return 0.0
return (mean_excess / downside_dev) * math.sqrt(252)
def _trade_summary(trade: dict) -> dict:
"""Compact summary of a closed trade for reporting."""
return {
"market": trade.get("market", "")[:70],
"side": trade["side"],
"shares": trade["shares"],
"entry": trade["entry_price"],
"exit": trade["exit_price"],
"pnl_usd": trade["pnl"],
"pnl_pct": trade["pnl_pct"],
"duration": trade.get("close_time", ""),
}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Text formatting
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def format_report(report: dict) -> str:
"""Format the report as human-readable text."""
s = report["summary"]
r = report["risk_metrics"]
t = report["trade_metrics"]
lines = [
"=" * 60,
f" PORTFOLIO REPORT: {report['portfolio_name']}",
f" Generated: {report['generated_at'][:19]}",
f" Active for: {report['days_active']} days",
"=" * 60,
"",
"--- Performance Summary ---",
f" Starting Balance: ${s['starting_balance']:>12,.2f}",
f" Current Value: ${s['current_value']:>12,.2f}",
f" Total Return: ${s['total_return_usd']:>12,.2f} "
f"({s['total_return_pct']:+.2f}%)",
f" Annualized Return: {s['annualized_return_pct']:>12.2f}%",
"",
"--- Risk Metrics ---",
f" Sharpe Ratio: {r['sharpe_ratio']:>12.3f}",
f" Sortino Ratio: {r['sortino_ratio']:>12.3f}",
f" Max Drawdown: {r['max_drawdown_pct']:>12.2f}%",
f" Max DD Duration: {r['max_drawdown_duration_days']:>12d} days",
f" Current Drawdown: {r['current_drawdown_pct']:>12.2f}%",
"",
"--- Trade Metrics ---",
f" Total Trades: {t['total_trades']:>12d}",
f" Closed Trades: {t['closed_trades']:>12d}",
f" Open Positions: {t['open_positions']:>12d}",
f" Win Rate: {t['win_rate_pct']:>12.1f}%",
f" Avg Win: ${t['avg_win_usd']:>12,.2f}",
f" Avg Loss: ${t['avg_loss_usd']:>12,.2f}",
f" Profit Factor: {t['profit_factor']:>12.2f}",
f" Total Fees: ${t['total_fees_usd']:>12,.2f}",
f" Avg Trade Duration: {t['avg_trade_duration_hours']:>12.1f} hours",
]
if report["best_trades"]:
lines += ["", "--- Best Trades ---"]
for i, bt in enumerate(report["best_trades"], 1):
lines.append(
f" {i}. {bt['side']} {bt['shares']:.1f}sh "
f"${bt['entry']:.4f}->${bt['exit']:.4f} "
f"P&L: ${bt['pnl_usd']:+,.2f} ({bt['pnl_pct']:+.1f}%)"
)
if bt.get("market"):
lines.append(f" {bt['market']}")
if report["worst_trades"]:
lines += ["", "--- Worst Trades ---"]
for i, wt in enumerate(report["worst_trades"], 1):
lines.append(
f" {i}. {wt['side']} {wt['shares']:.1f}sh "
f"${wt['entry']:.4f}->${wt['exit']:.4f} "
f"P&L: ${wt['pnl_usd']:+,.2f} ({wt['pnl_pct']:+.1f}%)"
)
if wt.get("market"):
lines.append(f" {wt['market']}")
if report["open_positions"]:
lines += ["", "--- Open Positions ---"]
for p in report["open_positions"]:
lines.append(
f" {p['side']} {p['shares']:.1f}sh "
f"@ ${p['entry']:.4f} -> ${p['current']:.4f} "
f"P&L: ${p['unrealized_pnl']:+,.2f}"
)
if p.get("market"):
lines.append(f" {p['market']}")
lines.append("")
lines.append("=" * 60)
return "\n".join(lines)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# CLI
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def main():
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
description="Generate portfolio performance report",
)
parser.add_argument("--portfolio", default="default", help="Portfolio name")
parser.add_argument("--json", action="store_true", help="JSON output")
args = parser.parse_args()
try:
report = generate_report(args.portfolio)
if args.json:
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
else:
print(format_report(report))
except RuntimeError as exc:
print(f"ERROR: {exc}", file=sys.stderr)
sys.exit(1)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()