polymarket-analyst_github/README.md

Polymarket Analyst

A Vercel-hosted Polymarket agent arena with shared paper-trading state, agent return charts, paper accounts, market browsing, and live-money readiness rails.

Just look at it now

Open the deployed site:

https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app

Personal research mode:

https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html

The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or Vercel Blob. Engine v38 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data expires after 24 hours.

Each agent learns bounded weights from its own v34+ trade outcomes across signal type, setup quality, category, side, and entry-price band. The learner shrinks small samples toward neutral, caps sizing changes to 0.68x-1.30x, and reserves 15% of candidates for deterministic exploration so a stale regime cannot become permanent.

Engine v38 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the 18% stop cannot fill. New core positions are capped at 2.5%-4% of equity and aggressive positions at 3%-5%, with lower limits for near-term, extreme-price, reversal, and fast-moving setups. Oversized positions inherited from older engines are reduced to the same loss budget during live marking. The two-agent overlap guard counts only positions worth at least 1.25% of an agent's equity, so tiny profit-lock runners do not block a new material trade.

A separate walk-forward ledger records each trade-ready signal before its future price is known, grades it at least 12 hours later, and combines that broad market calibration with each agent's personal outcomes. This expands the learning sample without backfilling future information into old decisions.

The initial seven-day chart seed is an approximate replay, not a live return. It uses only prices available on each simulated date, computes daily and weekly changes from those historical prices, disables unavailable hourly reversal data, and labels the combined number as legacy/replay. Engine-version returns are the clean live comparison.

Run npm run evaluate:signals to test the price-signal rules against one month of hourly Polymarket history. The evaluator forms signals only from prior one-hour, one-day, and one-week prices, marks them 6, 12, 24, and 72 hours later, applies a conservative half-cent cost estimate, and reports a chronological 70/30 split plus three consecutive time segments. Results are also clustered by market so repeated observations from one contract cannot masquerade as broad evidence. Set EVAL_MARKETS, EVAL_CONCURRENCY, EVAL_HORIZONS, or EVAL_COST_CENTS to change the audit. The first 80-market audit found that reversal signals lost 4.34% on average in both chronological partitions, while crypto and longshot samples were also negative overall. Engine v38 therefore blocks reversal and sports-trend entries outside the fixed 15% exploration lane and applies modest sizing penalties to crypto and longshots. It does not boost any rule from this audit because no positive rule was robust across the chronological split.

A corrected 200-market audit paged through 197 markets with usable history and 1,912 twelve-hour outcomes. Reversals remained negative in every chronological segment and averaged -4.13%. Sports trends were negative in train and test and averaged -3.53% at 72 hours. Politics trends were the sole cohort with positive row-level returns in all three 72-hour segments, but its market-cluster interval still crossed zero; that supports a longer hold test, not a larger entry bet. Engine v38 gives Politics trend positions that 72-hour observation window before ordinary signal exits. Stops, profit locks, settlement handling, and risk-budget reductions remain immediate.

Run npm run evaluate:settlements to evaluate fixed decisions made 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, and 90 days before known binary settlements. The audit uses one observation per resolved market and horizon, includes losing contracts at zero, applies the same half-cent cost assumption, clusters related contracts by event, and requires positive event-clustered confidence bounds in train and test plus positive results in three chronological segments before it calls a settlement cohort robust. Environment variables beginning with SETTLEMENT_ control its market count, concurrency, horizons, and cost.

The first event-clustered run loaded 498 of the 500 highest-volume resolved markets. No side, price band, category, or 1-90 day holding rule passed the required train/test confidence checks. In particular, older YES/underdog gains reversed in the recent test segment. The engine therefore does not install a static settlement-direction boost from this audit.

Paper accounts created with a password are also saved through the backend, so a user can log in from another device and see the same paper portfolio, activity, and value history. Passwordless paper accounts remain local-only.

Put it online (free) so you can reach it from any device

Pick one — all give you a public URL:

Option A — Netlify Drop (easiest, ~30 seconds, no account needed to start)

1. Go to https://app.netlify.com/drop
2. Drag the whole polymarket-site folder onto the page.
3. You get a live URL like https://your-name.netlify.app. Done.

Option B — GitHub Pages

1. Create a new GitHub repo and upload index.html.
2. Repo → Settings → Pages → Branch: main, folder: /root → Save.
3. Your site appears at https://theodore-song.github.io/<repo>/.

Option C — Vercel

1. https://vercel.com → Add New → Project → import this GitHub repo under the theodore_song Vercel account (or use the vercel CLI in this folder) → Deploy.

Configuration

Use .env.example as the setup template.

• DATABASE_URL or NEON_DATABASE_URL enables Neon-backed shared state; BLOB_READ_WRITE_TOKEN is the fallback provider.
• ACCOUNT_SESSION_SECRET signs cloud paper-account sessions. If omitted, the app falls back to the existing server secret/token, but production should use a dedicated value.
• PROVIDER_SETUP.md maps the current stack — Clerk, Neon, Veriff, Circle, and Sentry — to the exact Vercel environment variables still needed.
• /api/live reports whether KYC, payments, wallet/deposit-wallet, Polymarket CLOB, authentication, geofencing, sanctions, audit, support, and monitoring providers are configured.
• LIVE_TRADING_ENABLED should stay false until legal review, provider setup, wallet signing, reconciliation, and dry-run testing are complete.
• See REAL_MONEY_ROADMAP.md for the launch requirements before any real funds or live order execution are enabled.

Notes

• Paper trading only right now — no real money, nothing places real orders.
• Personal research mode hides investor/live-money tabs and is for your own analysis plus manual execution links only.
• The analysis is a transparent heuristic, not financial advice.
• The shared arena uses cloud state when configured. Password-backed paper accounts use the backend account API; passwordless paper accounts use local browser storage.