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https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst.git
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59 lines
2.0 KiB
JSON
59 lines
2.0 KiB
JSON
{
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"generated_at": "2026-08-22T12:55:00.000Z",
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"strategy": "sports-contest-no-disjoint-10000-followup",
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"production_strategy": 64,
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"status": "zero-capital-forward-shadow",
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"methodology": {
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"cohorts": [
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"most recent 5000 eligible resolved sports markets",
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"next older disjoint 5000 eligible resolved sports markets"
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],
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"rules_tested_per_cohort": 60,
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"lead_hours": [12, 18, 24, 30, 36],
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"entry_bands": "grid from 0.55 through 0.95",
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"modeled_cost_cents": 2,
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"selection": "one highest-priced eligible favorite per contest",
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"split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
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"strict_gate": "positive lower 90% confidence bound in train, validation, and untouched holdout"
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},
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"recent_5000": {
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"train_rules_passing": 19,
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"validation_rules_passing": 5,
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"holdout_rules_passing": 0,
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"closest_rule": {
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"id": "lead30_0.55-0.75",
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"train_mean": 0.12789,
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"train_lower_90": 0.03068,
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"validation_mean": 0.09454,
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"validation_lower_90": 0.0101,
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"holdout_mean": 0.09368,
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"holdout_lower_90": -0.00833
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}
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},
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"older_disjoint_5000": {
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"train_rules_passing": 5,
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"validation_rules_passing": 0,
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"holdout_rules_passing": 0,
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"closest_rule": {
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"id": "lead30_0.55-0.75",
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"train_mean": 0.01857,
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"train_lower_90": -0.0588,
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"validation_mean": 0.05567,
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"validation_lower_90": -0.04222,
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"holdout_mean": 0.08661,
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"holdout_lower_90": -0.01431
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},
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"current_24_hour_broad_rule_segment_means": [-0.039, -0.026, -0.0097]
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},
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"decision": {
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"capital_enabled": false,
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"initial_position_pct": 0,
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"promotion_events": 20,
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"promotion_lower_90_minimum": 0.005,
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"promoted_position_pct": 0.75,
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"maximum_promotion_events": 40,
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"maximum_position_pct": 1,
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"reason": "No rule survived both disjoint archives with a positive lower confidence bound in every chronological partition. Recent positive point estimates are insufficient evidence for capital."
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}
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}
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