gavindiaz/polymarket-analyst_github
1
0
Fork 0
mirror of https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst.git synced 2026-08-23 12:38:11 +00:00
Code Issues Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity
Files
2d210ffb931f407da9dcb3d6944dddfa7b572871
polymarket-analyst_github/research/shock-strategy-4-audit.json
T

4354 lines
102 KiB
JSON
Raw Blame History

{
"generatedAt": "2026-08-21T22:04:31.622Z",
"requestedMarkets": 2000,
"activeMarketsSkipped": 0,
"markets": 2000,
"marketsWithHistory": 2000,
"fetchFailures": 0,
"medianHistoryCoverageDays": 13.17,
"maximumHistoryCoverageDays": 30,
"observations": 536410,
"testedBaseRules": 2560,
"trainWinners": 17,
"testedRefinements": 714,
"validationWinners": 31,
"holdoutPassed": 16,
"eventHoldoutObservations": 134677,
"eventHoldoutEvents": 186,
"eventHoldoutPassed": 1,
"externalRequestedMarkets": 100,
"externalMarkets": 99,
"externalMarketsWithHistory": 0,
"externalFetchFailures": 0,
"externalObservations": 0,
"archivePassed": 0,
"methodology": {
"requestedHistoryDays": 30,
"medianHistoryCoverageDays": 13.17,
"maximumHistoryCoverageDays": 30,
"observationSpacingHours": 3,
"horizons": [
3,
6,
12,
24
],
"windows": [
1,
3,
6,
24
],
"costCents": 2,
"entryPriceRange": [
0.08,
0.92
],
"returnWinsorization": [
-1,
2
],
"eventSplit": "25% deterministic event-disjoint holdout reserved before search",
"split": "Remaining events use 60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched chronological holdout with future-mark purge",
"clusterUnit": "Polymarket event",
"refinementSource": "Only base rules with a positive train lower bound are refined by category and entry band",
"strategy4ContractGate": "Reject path barriers and exact numeric ranges; require 14 hours to market end at entry",
"limitation": "Current active-market selection is survivorship biased; any holdout winner still requires resolved-market external validation"
},
"partitions": {
"train": 190825,
"validation": 110224,
"holdout": 85560
},
"exactStrategy3": {
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 371,
"markets": 128,
"events": 94,
"mean": 0.06088,
"eventMean": 0.06395,
"lower": 0.02315,
"upper": 0.10475,
"winRate": 0.49326
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 294,
"markets": 124,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.15563,
"eventMean": 0.08846,
"lower": 0.04897,
"upper": 0.12794,
"winRate": 0.59864
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 541,
"markets": 257,
"events": 158,
"mean": 0.04658,
"eventMean": 0.08558,
"lower": 0.03465,
"upper": 0.13652,
"winRate": 0.50092
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 451,
"markets": 143,
"events": 87,
"mean": 0.04624,
"eventMean": 0.04036,
"lower": -0.00924,
"upper": 0.08996,
"winRate": 0.51885
}
},
"exactStrategy4": {
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 262,
"markets": 91,
"events": 69,
"mean": 0.03114,
"eventMean": 0.03881,
"lower": 0.00126,
"upper": 0.07636,
"winRate": 0.46183
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 174,
"markets": 84,
"events": 66,
"mean": 0.0733,
"eventMean": 0.08238,
"lower": 0.03555,
"upper": 0.12922,
"winRate": 0.52874
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 401,
"markets": 167,
"events": 113,
"mean": -0.00471,
"eventMean": 0.05654,
"lower": 0.00987,
"upper": 0.10322,
"winRate": 0.46883
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 323,
"markets": 104,
"events": 66,
"mean": 0.03842,
"eventMean": 0.04587,
"lower": 0.00178,
"upper": 0.08996,
"winRate": 0.52012
}
},
"strategy4Refinements": [
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 262,
"markets": 91,
"events": 69,
"mean": 0.03114,
"eventMean": 0.03881,
"lower": 0.00126,
"upper": 0.07636,
"winRate": 0.46183
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 174,
"markets": 84,
"events": 66,
"mean": 0.0733,
"eventMean": 0.08238,
"lower": 0.03555,
"upper": 0.12922,
"winRate": 0.52874
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 401,
"markets": 167,
"events": 113,
"mean": -0.00471,
"eventMean": 0.05654,
"lower": 0.00987,
"upper": 0.10322,
"winRate": 0.46883
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 323,
"markets": 104,
"events": 66,
"mean": 0.03842,
"eventMean": 0.04587,
"lower": 0.00178,
"upper": 0.08996,
"winRate": 0.52012
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_All_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 45,
"markets": 30,
"events": 24,
"mean": 0.08546,
"eventMean": 0.09765,
"lower": -0.03279,
"upper": 0.22808,
"winRate": 0.46667
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 35,
"markets": 28,
"events": 25,
"mean": 0.20575,
"eventMean": 0.20869,
"lower": 0.02614,
"upper": 0.39124,
"winRate": 0.51429
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 72,
"markets": 60,
"events": 48,
"mean": -0.04355,
"eventMean": 0.00319,
"lower": -0.16487,
"upper": 0.17124,
"winRate": 0.36111
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 70,
"markets": 45,
"events": 30,
"mean": 0.16863,
"eventMean": 0.14194,
"lower": -0.0409,
"upper": 0.32478,
"winRate": 0.55714
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_All_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 91,
"markets": 43,
"events": 35,
"mean": 0.01554,
"eventMean": -0.00078,
"lower": -0.05371,
"upper": 0.05214,
"winRate": 0.41758
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 63,
"markets": 44,
"events": 36,
"mean": 0.05253,
"eventMean": 0.04326,
"lower": -0.03619,
"upper": 0.12272,
"winRate": 0.42857
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 87,
"markets": 65,
"events": 55,
"mean": 0.05376,
"eventMean": 0.10221,
"lower": 0.00055,
"upper": 0.20387,
"winRate": 0.52874
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 98,
"markets": 55,
"events": 42,
"mean": 0.00615,
"eventMean": 0.00025,
"lower": -0.08174,
"upper": 0.08224,
"winRate": 0.46939
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_All_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 40,
"markets": 29,
"events": 26,
"mean": 0.04378,
"eventMean": 0.02641,
"lower": -0.03973,
"upper": 0.09255,
"winRate": 0.475
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 25,
"markets": 18,
"events": 17,
"mean": -0.03032,
"eventMean": 0.01201,
"lower": -0.08479,
"upper": 0.10881,
"winRate": 0.48
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 55,
"markets": 47,
"events": 43,
"mean": 0.04717,
"eventMean": 0.04058,
"lower": -0.05289,
"upper": 0.13404,
"winRate": 0.52727
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 42,
"markets": 34,
"events": 32,
"mean": 0.02372,
"eventMean": 0.02257,
"lower": -0.05226,
"upper": 0.0974,
"winRate": 0.47619
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 65,
"markets": 44,
"events": 38,
"mean": 0.02022,
"eventMean": 0.03357,
"lower": -0.01773,
"upper": 0.08486,
"winRate": 0.50769
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 42,
"markets": 33,
"events": 27,
"mean": 0.06001,
"eventMean": 0.07529,
"lower": 0.04029,
"upper": 0.11029,
"winRate": 0.69048
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 88,
"markets": 70,
"events": 54,
"mean": -0.00129,
"eventMean": -0.01262,
"lower": -0.07159,
"upper": 0.04634,
"winRate": 0.52273
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 88,
"markets": 57,
"events": 44,
"mean": 0.00371,
"eventMean": 0.00502,
"lower": -0.04294,
"upper": 0.05299,
"winRate": 0.56818
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_All_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 21,
"markets": 15,
"events": 13,
"mean": -0.008,
"eventMean": -0.02777,
"lower": -0.0774,
"upper": 0.02185,
"winRate": 0.47619
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 9,
"markets": 9,
"events": 9,
"mean": 0.05351,
"eventMean": 0.05351,
"lower": 0.00904,
"upper": 0.09799,
"winRate": 0.66667
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 99,
"markets": 44,
"events": 27,
"mean": -0.05971,
"eventMean": -0.07184,
"lower": -0.12124,
"upper": -0.02244,
"winRate": 0.41414
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 25,
"markets": 21,
"events": 18,
"mean": -0.05278,
"eventMean": -0.03483,
"lower": -0.09797,
"upper": 0.02831,
"winRate": 0.52
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Politics_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Politics",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 22,
"markets": 8,
"events": 8,
"mean": 0.2132,
"eventMean": 0.12431,
"lower": 0.02502,
"upper": 0.2236,
"winRate": 0.54545
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 16,
"markets": 9,
"events": 6,
"mean": -0.06441,
"eventMean": 0.01297,
"lower": -0.15277,
"upper": 0.1787,
"winRate": 0.375
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 99,
"markets": 33,
"events": 31,
"mean": 0.17689,
"eventMean": 0.17161,
"lower": 0.08594,
"upper": 0.25727,
"winRate": 0.59596
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 58,
"markets": 21,
"events": 17,
"mean": 0.13882,
"eventMean": 0.0734,
"lower": 0.00336,
"upper": 0.14343,
"winRate": 0.55172
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Politics_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Politics",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 2,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.76032,
"eventMean": 0.76032,
"lower": 0.76032,
"upper": 0.76032,
"winRate": 1
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": -0.20833,
"eventMean": -0.20833,
"lower": -0.20833,
"upper": -0.20833,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 22,
"markets": 14,
"events": 14,
"mean": 0.38996,
"eventMean": 0.47325,
"lower": 0.14743,
"upper": 0.79908,
"winRate": 0.68182
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 8,
"markets": 5,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.51131,
"eventMean": 0.13141,
"lower": -0.54343,
"upper": 0.80626,
"winRate": 0.5
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Politics_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Politics",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 8,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.30846,
"eventMean": 0.15853,
"lower": -0.17162,
"upper": 0.48868,
"winRate": 0.625
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 4,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.00487,
"eventMean": -0.00487,
"lower": -0.49856,
"upper": 0.48881,
"winRate": 0.25
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 28,
"markets": 16,
"events": 16,
"mean": 0.26711,
"eventMean": 0.28339,
"lower": 0.10681,
"upper": 0.45997,
"winRate": 0.67857
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 16,
"markets": 10,
"events": 9,
"mean": 0.12864,
"eventMean": 0.08604,
"lower": -0.1148,
"upper": 0.28687,
"winRate": 0.4375
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Politics_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Politics",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.0934,
"eventMean": 0.0934,
"lower": 0.0934,
"upper": 0.0934,
"winRate": 0.33333
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 3,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.33507,
"eventMean": -0.33507,
"lower": -0.7113,
"upper": 0.04116,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 13,
"markets": 12,
"events": 12,
"mean": 0.08296,
"eventMean": 0.08005,
"lower": -0.07473,
"upper": 0.23482,
"winRate": 0.53846
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 7,
"markets": 6,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.06168,
"eventMean": 0.06963,
"lower": -0.13156,
"upper": 0.27083,
"winRate": 0.42857
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Politics_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Politics",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 6,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.07712,
"eventMean": 0.12607,
"lower": -0.01483,
"upper": 0.26697,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.11778,
"eventMean": 0.12085,
"lower": 0.09385,
"upper": 0.14784,
"winRate": 1
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 25,
"markets": 16,
"events": 16,
"mean": 0.05241,
"eventMean": 0.00547,
"lower": -0.08418,
"upper": 0.09512,
"winRate": 0.56
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 24,
"markets": 14,
"events": 12,
"mean": 0.06879,
"eventMean": 0.06574,
"lower": 0.02287,
"upper": 0.1086,
"winRate": 0.70833
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Politics_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Politics",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": -0.01363,
"eventMean": -0.01363,
"lower": -0.11329,
"upper": 0.08602,
"winRate": 0.33333
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 2,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.02565,
"eventMean": -0.02565,
"lower": -0.02619,
"upper": -0.0251,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 11,
"markets": 10,
"events": 9,
"mean": -0.08498,
"eventMean": -0.09732,
"lower": -0.19703,
"upper": 0.00238,
"winRate": 0.36364
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": -0.06006,
"eventMean": -0.06006,
"lower": -0.16983,
"upper": 0.04972,
"winRate": 0.33333
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Sports_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Sports",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 31,
"markets": 10,
"events": 8,
"mean": 0.05087,
"eventMean": 0.03629,
"lower": -0.07616,
"upper": 0.14874,
"winRate": 0.45161
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 55,
"markets": 29,
"events": 21,
"mean": 0.04932,
"eventMean": 0.05941,
"lower": -0.01653,
"upper": 0.13534,
"winRate": 0.49091
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 45,
"markets": 26,
"events": 17,
"mean": 0.17028,
"eventMean": 0.11795,
"lower": 0.0247,
"upper": 0.21119,
"winRate": 0.55556
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 72,
"markets": 18,
"events": 13,
"mean": 0.1151,
"eventMean": 0.11236,
"lower": 0.05161,
"upper": 0.17311,
"winRate": 0.625
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Sports_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Sports",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 12,
"markets": 6,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.03168,
"eventMean": -0.06563,
"lower": -0.41302,
"upper": 0.28176,
"winRate": 0.41667
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 9,
"markets": 7,
"events": 6,
"mean": 0.12211,
"eventMean": 0.12116,
"lower": -0.15091,
"upper": 0.39323,
"winRate": 0.44444
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 9,
"markets": 7,
"events": 6,
"mean": 0.17026,
"eventMean": -0.02392,
"lower": -0.43486,
"upper": 0.38702,
"winRate": 0.33333
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 21,
"markets": 7,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.21583,
"eventMean": 0.24075,
"lower": 0.1485,
"upper": 0.333,
"winRate": 0.61905
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Sports_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Sports",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 9,
"markets": 4,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.00998,
"eventMean": 0.07906,
"lower": -0.16006,
"upper": 0.31818,
"winRate": 0.44444
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 24,
"markets": 19,
"events": 14,
"mean": -0.00793,
"eventMean": 0.01724,
"lower": -0.08639,
"upper": 0.12088,
"winRate": 0.29167
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 13,
"markets": 10,
"events": 10,
"mean": 0.14652,
"eventMean": 0.14871,
"lower": 0.00186,
"upper": 0.29555,
"winRate": 0.53846
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 19,
"markets": 10,
"events": 8,
"mean": 0.15279,
"eventMean": 0.15839,
"lower": 0.02488,
"upper": 0.29189,
"winRate": 0.63158
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Sports_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Sports",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.1007,
"eventMean": 0.06088,
"lower": -0.10124,
"upper": 0.223,
"winRate": 0.4
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 6,
"markets": 5,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.09274,
"eventMean": 0.13496,
"lower": -0.09531,
"upper": 0.36524,
"winRate": 0.66667
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 5,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.20858,
"eventMean": 0.2111,
"lower": -0.13645,
"upper": 0.55864,
"winRate": 0.6
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 8,
"markets": 6,
"events": 6,
"mean": 0.02643,
"eventMean": 0.02369,
"lower": -0.04982,
"upper": 0.0972,
"winRate": 0.625
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Sports_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Sports",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 4,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.12071,
"eventMean": 0.1426,
"lower": -0.06276,
"upper": 0.34797,
"winRate": 0.6
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 12,
"markets": 9,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.0828,
"eventMean": 0.0683,
"lower": -0.03419,
"upper": 0.17079,
"winRate": 0.66667
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 14,
"markets": 11,
"events": 7,
"mean": 0.20119,
"eventMean": 0.14731,
"lower": 0.03641,
"upper": 0.25821,
"winRate": 0.71429
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 18,
"markets": 10,
"events": 9,
"mean": 0.05857,
"eventMean": 0.05376,
"lower": -0.0128,
"upper": 0.12031,
"winRate": 0.55556
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Sports_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Sports",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.0634,
"eventMean": 0.0634,
"lower": 0.03757,
"upper": 0.08923,
"winRate": 1
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 3,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.0915,
"eventMean": 0.0915,
"lower": 0.0915,
"upper": 0.0915,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 6,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": -0.06893,
"eventMean": -0.04212,
"lower": -0.17449,
"upper": 0.09026,
"winRate": 0.83333
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Crypto_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Crypto",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 9,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.12388,
"eventMean": 0.02127,
"lower": -0.10959,
"upper": 0.15214,
"winRate": 0.44444
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": -0.01928,
"eventMean": -0.01583,
"lower": -0.16096,
"upper": 0.1293,
"winRate": 0.4
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 164,
"markets": 50,
"events": 21,
"mean": -0.16846,
"eventMean": -0.08221,
"lower": -0.19378,
"upper": 0.02935,
"winRate": 0.35976
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 25,
"markets": 11,
"events": 5,
"mean": -0.35997,
"eventMean": -0.11002,
"lower": -0.37135,
"upper": 0.15131,
"winRate": 0.24
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Crypto_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Crypto",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 1,
"eventMean": 1,
"lower": 1,
"upper": 1,
"winRate": 1
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 2,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.06893,
"eventMean": 0.06893,
"lower": -0.38314,
"upper": 0.52101,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 21,
"markets": 20,
"events": 10,
"mean": -0.60673,
"eventMean": -0.57747,
"lower": -0.77445,
"upper": -0.3805,
"winRate": 0.09524
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 4,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.29508,
"eventMean": -0.52447,
"lower": -1.27915,
"upper": 0.23022,
"winRate": 0.25
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Crypto_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Crypto",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.06806,
"eventMean": -0.00451,
"lower": -0.24326,
"upper": 0.23424,
"winRate": 0.25
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 2,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.22765,
"eventMean": -0.22765,
"lower": -0.52735,
"upper": 0.07206,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 19,
"markets": 17,
"events": 9,
"mean": -0.29687,
"eventMean": -0.1738,
"lower": -0.57526,
"upper": 0.22765,
"winRate": 0.21053
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 8,
"markets": 7,
"events": 3,
"mean": -0.64335,
"eventMean": -0.48704,
"lower": -0.91919,
"upper": -0.05489,
"winRate": 0.125
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Crypto_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Crypto",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 17,
"markets": 12,
"events": 10,
"mean": 0.02373,
"eventMean": -0.03989,
"lower": -0.32157,
"upper": 0.24179,
"winRate": 0.58824
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": -0.1181,
"eventMean": -0.1181,
"lower": -0.61658,
"upper": 0.38038,
"winRate": 0.5
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Crypto_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Crypto",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": -0.03932,
"eventMean": -0.02142,
"lower": -0.11691,
"upper": 0.07407,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 28,
"markets": 25,
"events": 15,
"mean": -0.14653,
"eventMean": -0.0968,
"lower": -0.227,
"upper": 0.0334,
"winRate": 0.39286
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 4,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.29421,
"eventMean": -0.28087,
"lower": -0.32477,
"upper": -0.23696,
"winRate": 0.25
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Crypto_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Crypto",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.22105,
"eventMean": 0.22105,
"lower": 0.22105,
"upper": 0.22105,
"winRate": 1
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 79,
"markets": 26,
"events": 13,
"mean": -0.0702,
"eventMean": -0.10385,
"lower": -0.16907,
"upper": -0.03863,
"winRate": 0.40506
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 5,
"events": 3,
"mean": -0.20455,
"eventMean": -0.14897,
"lower": -0.42487,
"upper": 0.12693,
"winRate": 0.2
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Economy_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Economy",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 45,
"markets": 17,
"events": 13,
"mean": 0.0014,
"eventMean": 0.05885,
"lower": -0.05373,
"upper": 0.17142,
"winRate": 0.4
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 15,
"markets": 9,
"events": 8,
"mean": 0.05659,
"eventMean": 0.07058,
"lower": 0.00993,
"upper": 0.13123,
"winRate": 0.53333
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 6,
"markets": 5,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.13961,
"eventMean": 0.12328,
"lower": -0.12963,
"upper": 0.37619,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 24,
"markets": 7,
"events": 6,
"mean": 0.01084,
"eventMean": -0.00096,
"lower": -0.05835,
"upper": 0.05643,
"winRate": 0.54167
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Economy_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Economy",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.27422,
"eventMean": 0.29631,
"lower": -0.00799,
"upper": 0.6006,
"winRate": 0.8
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.04113,
"eventMean": -0.04914,
"lower": -0.08867,
"upper": -0.00961,
"winRate": 0.33333
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.67568,
"eventMean": 0.67568,
"lower": 0.67568,
"upper": 0.67568,
"winRate": 1
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 6,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": 0.094,
"eventMean": 0.05389,
"lower": -0.02731,
"upper": 0.13509,
"winRate": 0.83333
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Economy_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Economy",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 15,
"markets": 9,
"events": 8,
"mean": -0.08126,
"eventMean": -0.031,
"lower": -0.13757,
"upper": 0.07557,
"winRate": 0.2
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.11832,
"eventMean": 0.14036,
"lower": -0.04092,
"upper": 0.32164,
"winRate": 0.4
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 2,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.08,
"eventMean": 0.08,
"lower": -0.3806,
"upper": 0.5406,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 6,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": -0.0693,
"eventMean": -0.07134,
"lower": -0.08143,
"upper": -0.06126,
"winRate": 0.16667
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Economy_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Economy",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 5,
"markets": 4,
"events": 4,
"mean": -0.07043,
"eventMean": -0.04529,
"lower": -0.12394,
"upper": 0.03336,
"winRate": 0.2
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.04989,
"eventMean": 0.04989,
"lower": -0.07989,
"upper": 0.17968,
"winRate": 0.66667
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 2,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.02126,
"eventMean": 0.02126,
"lower": -0.07945,
"upper": 0.12196,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": -0.0565,
"eventMean": -0.05679,
"lower": -0.14226,
"upper": 0.02868,
"winRate": 0.25
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Economy_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Economy",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 17,
"markets": 9,
"events": 9,
"mean": 0.00609,
"eventMean": -0.01265,
"lower": -0.13681,
"upper": 0.11152,
"winRate": 0.47059
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 3,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.08767,
"eventMean": 0.08767,
"lower": 0.02447,
"upper": 0.15088,
"winRate": 1
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 7,
"markets": 5,
"events": 5,
"mean": 0.04474,
"eventMean": 0.00201,
"lower": -0.07466,
"upper": 0.07869,
"winRate": 0.71429
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Economy_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Economy",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 3,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.05306,
"eventMean": 0.00678,
"lower": -0.22164,
"upper": 0.23519,
"winRate": 0.66667
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": -0.03205,
"eventMean": -0.03205,
"lower": -0.03205,
"upper": -0.03205,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": -0.04055,
"eventMean": -0.04055,
"lower": -0.04055,
"upper": -0.04055,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.02484,
"eventMean": 0.02484,
"lower": 0.02484,
"upper": 0.02484,
"winRate": 1
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Pop Culture_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Pop Culture",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 13,
"markets": 2,
"events": 2,
"mean": 0.09726,
"eventMean": 0.03535,
"lower": -0.08502,
"upper": 0.15571,
"winRate": 0.61538
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": -0.39564,
"eventMean": -0.39564,
"lower": -0.39564,
"upper": -0.39564,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Pop Culture_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Pop Culture",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": -0.39564,
"eventMean": -0.39564,
"lower": -0.39564,
"upper": -0.39564,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Pop Culture_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Pop Culture",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 8,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.13786,
"eventMean": 0.13786,
"lower": 0.13786,
"upper": 0.13786,
"winRate": 0.75
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Pop Culture_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Pop Culture",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.04984,
"eventMean": 0.04984,
"lower": 0.04984,
"upper": 0.04984,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Pop Culture_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Pop Culture",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Pop Culture_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Pop Culture",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": -0.03783,
"eventMean": -0.03783,
"lower": -0.03783,
"upper": -0.03783,
"winRate": 0
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Other_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Other",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 142,
"markets": 50,
"events": 34,
"mean": -0.00389,
"eventMean": 0.01389,
"lower": -0.03703,
"upper": 0.06482,
"winRate": 0.45775
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 83,
"markets": 33,
"events": 27,
"mean": 0.12434,
"eventMean": 0.13373,
"lower": 0.04686,
"upper": 0.2206,
"winRate": 0.59036
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 86,
"markets": 52,
"events": 38,
"mean": 0.00142,
"eventMean": 0.015,
"lower": -0.06369,
"upper": 0.09369,
"winRate": 0.48837
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 144,
"markets": 47,
"events": 25,
"mean": 0.0334,
"eventMean": 0.03499,
"lower": -0.05067,
"upper": 0.12065,
"winRate": 0.5
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Other_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Other",
"band": "longshot",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 25,
"markets": 18,
"events": 13,
"mean": -0.01704,
"eventMean": -0.02107,
"lower": -0.10844,
"upper": 0.06629,
"winRate": 0.36
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 20,
"markets": 16,
"events": 14,
"mean": 0.3148,
"eventMean": 0.3328,
"lower": 0.03892,
"upper": 0.62667,
"winRate": 0.6
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 18,
"markets": 17,
"events": 16,
"mean": -0.04364,
"eventMean": -0.05215,
"lower": -0.31467,
"upper": 0.21038,
"winRate": 0.27778
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 31,
"markets": 25,
"events": 15,
"mean": 0.1225,
"eventMean": 0.22415,
"lower": -0.07929,
"upper": 0.52759,
"winRate": 0.51613
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Other_lower-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Other",
"band": "lower-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 47,
"markets": 24,
"events": 18,
"mean": -0.02765,
"eventMean": -0.0345,
"lower": -0.09715,
"upper": 0.02815,
"winRate": 0.40426
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 28,
"markets": 17,
"events": 16,
"mean": 0.12082,
"eventMean": 0.09377,
"lower": -0.04571,
"upper": 0.23326,
"winRate": 0.60714
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 25,
"markets": 20,
"events": 18,
"mean": 0.03097,
"eventMean": 0.05581,
"lower": -0.08186,
"upper": 0.19347,
"winRate": 0.6
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 49,
"markets": 26,
"events": 20,
"mean": 0.02458,
"eventMean": -0.02135,
"lower": -0.12202,
"upper": 0.07931,
"winRate": 0.5102
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Other_center",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Other",
"band": "center",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 23,
"markets": 19,
"events": 16,
"mean": 0.0487,
"eventMean": 0.03007,
"lower": -0.06932,
"upper": 0.12946,
"winRate": 0.56522
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 12,
"markets": 7,
"events": 7,
"mean": -0.01032,
"eventMean": 0.00712,
"lower": -0.06778,
"upper": 0.08202,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 18,
"markets": 16,
"events": 15,
"mean": 0.0015,
"eventMean": 0.01975,
"lower": -0.10831,
"upper": 0.14781,
"winRate": 0.44444
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 19,
"markets": 15,
"events": 14,
"mean": 0.05534,
"eventMean": 0.06247,
"lower": -0.01879,
"upper": 0.14373,
"winRate": 0.47368
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Other_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Other",
"band": "upper-mid",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 33,
"markets": 25,
"events": 20,
"mean": 0.00914,
"eventMean": 0.03238,
"lower": -0.03869,
"upper": 0.10345,
"winRate": 0.51515
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 22,
"markets": 17,
"events": 15,
"mean": 0.03067,
"eventMean": 0.06299,
"lower": 0.01015,
"upper": 0.11584,
"winRate": 0.59091
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 21,
"markets": 18,
"events": 16,
"mean": -0.00654,
"eventMean": -0.02177,
"lower": -0.13645,
"upper": 0.09291,
"winRate": 0.52381
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 35,
"markets": 24,
"events": 16,
"mean": -0.04329,
"eventMean": -0.03125,
"lower": -0.14292,
"upper": 0.08042,
"winRate": 0.48571
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe_v4_Other_favorite",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "Other",
"band": "favorite",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 14,
"markets": 9,
"events": 7,
"mean": -0.01774,
"eventMean": -0.04227,
"lower": -0.11262,
"upper": 0.02808,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 1,
"markets": 1,
"events": 1,
"mean": 0.09032,
"eventMean": 0.09032,
"lower": 0.09032,
"upper": 0.09032,
"winRate": 1
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 4,
"markets": 4,
"events": 3,
"mean": 0.06099,
"eventMean": 0.07844,
"lower": 0.0158,
"upper": 0.14108,
"winRate": 0.75
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 10,
"markets": 8,
"events": 7,
"mean": 0.02722,
"eventMean": 0.02053,
"lower": -0.06419,
"upper": 0.10525,
"winRate": 0.5
}
}
],
"exactPrimaryWinner24": {
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 364,
"markets": 123,
"events": 91,
"mean": 0.05057,
"eventMean": 0.05132,
"lower": 0.00788,
"upper": 0.09476,
"winRate": 0.51099
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 265,
"markets": 115,
"events": 82,
"mean": 0.11384,
"eventMean": 0.13679,
"lower": 0.08824,
"upper": 0.18533,
"winRate": 0.60755
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 424,
"markets": 207,
"events": 129,
"mean": 0.02883,
"eventMean": 0.09523,
"lower": 0.02894,
"upper": 0.16152,
"winRate": 0.48349
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 407,
"markets": 126,
"events": 78,
"mean": 0.07691,
"eventMean": 0.07803,
"lower": 0.02489,
"upper": 0.13118,
"winRate": 0.5086
}
},
"exactContractSafe24": {
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_contract_safe",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All",
"contractGate": "strategy4"
},
"train": {
"attempts": 254,
"markets": 87,
"events": 68,
"mean": 0.02037,
"eventMean": 0.01574,
"lower": -0.02398,
"upper": 0.05545,
"winRate": 0.49213
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 149,
"markets": 76,
"events": 60,
"mean": 0.10259,
"eventMean": 0.13379,
"lower": 0.07135,
"upper": 0.19624,
"winRate": 0.58389
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 334,
"markets": 149,
"events": 100,
"mean": -0.05279,
"eventMean": 0.03967,
"lower": -0.03201,
"upper": 0.11134,
"winRate": 0.44311
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 288,
"markets": 95,
"events": 60,
"mean": 0.08005,
"eventMean": 0.07586,
"lower": 0.01113,
"upper": 0.1406,
"winRate": 0.50347
}
},
"candidates": [
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 322,
"markets": 118,
"events": 88,
"mean": 0.08563,
"eventMean": 0.06461,
"lower": 0.01769,
"upper": 0.11154,
"winRate": 0.52174
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 279,
"markets": 116,
"events": 81,
"mean": 0.12121,
"eventMean": 0.08847,
"lower": 0.04671,
"upper": 0.13022,
"winRate": 0.55914
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 535,
"markets": 246,
"events": 153,
"mean": 0.05898,
"eventMean": 0.08766,
"lower": 0.03966,
"upper": 0.13565,
"winRate": 0.51589
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 408,
"markets": 134,
"events": 83,
"mean": 0.036,
"eventMean": 0.01226,
"lower": -0.04396,
"upper": 0.06849,
"winRate": 0.52941
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 371,
"markets": 128,
"events": 94,
"mean": 0.06088,
"eventMean": 0.06395,
"lower": 0.02315,
"upper": 0.10475,
"winRate": 0.49326
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 294,
"markets": 124,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.15563,
"eventMean": 0.08846,
"lower": 0.04897,
"upper": 0.12794,
"winRate": 0.59864
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 541,
"markets": 257,
"events": 158,
"mean": 0.04658,
"eventMean": 0.08558,
"lower": 0.03465,
"upper": 0.13652,
"winRate": 0.50092
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 451,
"markets": 143,
"events": 87,
"mean": 0.04624,
"eventMean": 0.04036,
"lower": -0.00924,
"upper": 0.08996,
"winRate": 0.51885
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_any_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_any_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "any",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 343,
"markets": 118,
"events": 88,
"mean": 0.08066,
"eventMean": 0.06048,
"lower": 0.01461,
"upper": 0.10635,
"winRate": 0.51312
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 299,
"markets": 122,
"events": 86,
"mean": 0.11174,
"eventMean": 0.07647,
"lower": 0.03612,
"upper": 0.11681,
"winRate": 0.54515
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 585,
"markets": 248,
"events": 154,
"mean": 0.05582,
"eventMean": 0.07998,
"lower": 0.03246,
"upper": 0.12751,
"winRate": 0.51966
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 446,
"markets": 136,
"events": 83,
"mean": 0.03938,
"eventMean": 0.01198,
"lower": -0.04302,
"upper": 0.06699,
"winRate": 0.52466
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 343,
"markets": 118,
"events": 88,
"mean": 0.08066,
"eventMean": 0.06048,
"lower": 0.01461,
"upper": 0.10635,
"winRate": 0.51312
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 299,
"markets": 122,
"events": 86,
"mean": 0.11174,
"eventMean": 0.07647,
"lower": 0.03612,
"upper": 0.11681,
"winRate": 0.54515
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 585,
"markets": 248,
"events": 154,
"mean": 0.05582,
"eventMean": 0.07998,
"lower": 0.03246,
"upper": 0.12751,
"winRate": 0.51966
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 446,
"markets": 136,
"events": 83,
"mean": 0.03938,
"eventMean": 0.01198,
"lower": -0.04302,
"upper": 0.06699,
"winRate": 0.52466
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_any_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_any_v1",
"horizon": 3,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "any",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 92,
"markets": 60,
"events": 51,
"mean": 0.06621,
"eventMean": 0.07436,
"lower": 0.03534,
"upper": 0.11337,
"winRate": 0.54348
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 93,
"markets": 69,
"events": 46,
"mean": 0.04948,
"eventMean": 0.06139,
"lower": 0.02346,
"upper": 0.09932,
"winRate": 0.54839
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 161,
"markets": 133,
"events": 103,
"mean": 0.05078,
"eventMean": 0.06236,
"lower": 0.02992,
"upper": 0.09479,
"winRate": 0.59006
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 152,
"markets": 85,
"events": 64,
"mean": 0.0059,
"eventMean": -0.01335,
"lower": -0.05879,
"upper": 0.0321,
"winRate": 0.47368
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 3,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 92,
"markets": 60,
"events": 51,
"mean": 0.06621,
"eventMean": 0.07436,
"lower": 0.03534,
"upper": 0.11337,
"winRate": 0.54348
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 93,
"markets": 69,
"events": 46,
"mean": 0.04948,
"eventMean": 0.06139,
"lower": 0.02346,
"upper": 0.09932,
"winRate": 0.54839
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 161,
"markets": 133,
"events": 103,
"mean": 0.05078,
"eventMean": 0.06236,
"lower": 0.02992,
"upper": 0.09479,
"winRate": 0.59006
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 152,
"markets": 85,
"events": 64,
"mean": 0.0059,
"eventMean": -0.01335,
"lower": -0.05879,
"upper": 0.0321,
"winRate": 0.47368
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 3,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 84,
"markets": 59,
"events": 50,
"mean": 0.06309,
"eventMean": 0.07372,
"lower": 0.03412,
"upper": 0.11331,
"winRate": 0.53571
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 89,
"markets": 68,
"events": 45,
"mean": 0.05102,
"eventMean": 0.06604,
"lower": 0.02792,
"upper": 0.10416,
"winRate": 0.55056
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 147,
"markets": 126,
"events": 101,
"mean": 0.05576,
"eventMean": 0.06189,
"lower": 0.029,
"upper": 0.09477,
"winRate": 0.58503
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 136,
"markets": 81,
"events": 62,
"mean": 0.00848,
"eventMean": -0.01424,
"lower": -0.06184,
"upper": 0.03336,
"winRate": 0.47059
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": true,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 364,
"markets": 123,
"events": 91,
"mean": 0.05057,
"eventMean": 0.05132,
"lower": 0.00788,
"upper": 0.09476,
"winRate": 0.51099
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 265,
"markets": 115,
"events": 82,
"mean": 0.11384,
"eventMean": 0.13679,
"lower": 0.08824,
"upper": 0.18533,
"winRate": 0.60755
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 424,
"markets": 207,
"events": 129,
"mean": 0.02883,
"eventMean": 0.09523,
"lower": 0.02894,
"upper": 0.16152,
"winRate": 0.48349
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 407,
"markets": 126,
"events": 78,
"mean": 0.07691,
"eventMean": 0.07803,
"lower": 0.02489,
"upper": 0.13118,
"winRate": 0.5086
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w6_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w6_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 6,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 507,
"markets": 148,
"events": 106,
"mean": 0.05033,
"eventMean": 0.04048,
"lower": 0.00993,
"upper": 0.07103,
"winRate": 0.45957
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 383,
"markets": 147,
"events": 105,
"mean": 0.11312,
"eventMean": 0.03163,
"lower": 0.00095,
"upper": 0.06231,
"winRate": 0.53525
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 672,
"markets": 292,
"events": 175,
"mean": 0.00566,
"eventMean": 0.06218,
"lower": 0.01597,
"upper": 0.10839,
"winRate": 0.4747
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 578,
"markets": 158,
"events": 93,
"mean": 0.02905,
"eventMean": 0.03039,
"lower": -0.01901,
"upper": 0.07979,
"winRate": 0.5
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 3,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 332,
"markets": 120,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.05706,
"eventMean": 0.04374,
"lower": 0.00912,
"upper": 0.07836,
"winRate": 0.46084
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 295,
"markets": 124,
"events": 84,
"mean": 0.06901,
"eventMean": 0.06137,
"lower": 0.02203,
"upper": 0.10072,
"winRate": 0.48475
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 662,
"markets": 306,
"events": 183,
"mean": 0.07221,
"eventMean": 0.05869,
"lower": 0.01372,
"upper": 0.10366,
"winRate": 0.53776
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 445,
"markets": 145,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.03772,
"eventMean": 0.01411,
"lower": -0.04225,
"upper": 0.07047,
"winRate": 0.46742
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 314,
"markets": 114,
"events": 85,
"mean": 0.08009,
"eventMean": 0.05778,
"lower": 0.00847,
"upper": 0.1071,
"winRate": 0.5414
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 255,
"markets": 111,
"events": 77,
"mean": 0.10864,
"eventMean": 0.1338,
"lower": 0.07765,
"upper": 0.18995,
"winRate": 0.60784
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 419,
"markets": 197,
"events": 124,
"mean": 0.01347,
"eventMean": 0.07077,
"lower": 0.00621,
"upper": 0.13533,
"winRate": 0.49165
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 370,
"markets": 117,
"events": 73,
"mean": 0.06393,
"eventMean": 0.03788,
"lower": -0.01335,
"upper": 0.08911,
"winRate": 0.51351
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 497,
"markets": 139,
"events": 100,
"mean": 0.0437,
"eventMean": 0.04515,
"lower": 0.01537,
"upper": 0.07492,
"winRate": 0.47082
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 379,
"markets": 141,
"events": 102,
"mean": 0.13497,
"eventMean": 0.05485,
"lower": 0.02155,
"upper": 0.08814,
"winRate": 0.5752
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 694,
"markets": 287,
"events": 173,
"mean": 0.01948,
"eventMean": 0.04822,
"lower": 0.00559,
"upper": 0.09084,
"winRate": 0.47695
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 585,
"markets": 159,
"events": 95,
"mean": 0.04045,
"eventMean": 0.03946,
"lower": -0.01425,
"upper": 0.09316,
"winRate": 0.51111
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_any_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_any_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "any",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 89,
"markets": 59,
"events": 50,
"mean": 0.04234,
"eventMean": 0.07384,
"lower": 0.02396,
"upper": 0.12371,
"winRate": 0.59551
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 83,
"markets": 63,
"events": 43,
"mean": 0.08228,
"eventMean": 0.0835,
"lower": 0.03825,
"upper": 0.12875,
"winRate": 0.63855
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 139,
"markets": 112,
"events": 88,
"mean": 0.04418,
"eventMean": 0.05475,
"lower": 0.00433,
"upper": 0.10516,
"winRate": 0.55396
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 141,
"markets": 79,
"events": 61,
"mean": 0.0129,
"eventMean": -0.03125,
"lower": -0.08703,
"upper": 0.02452,
"winRate": 0.56028
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 89,
"markets": 59,
"events": 50,
"mean": 0.04234,
"eventMean": 0.07384,
"lower": 0.02396,
"upper": 0.12371,
"winRate": 0.59551
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 83,
"markets": 63,
"events": 43,
"mean": 0.08228,
"eventMean": 0.0835,
"lower": 0.03825,
"upper": 0.12875,
"winRate": 0.63855
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 139,
"markets": 112,
"events": 88,
"mean": 0.04418,
"eventMean": 0.05475,
"lower": 0.00433,
"upper": 0.10516,
"winRate": 0.55396
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 141,
"markets": 79,
"events": 61,
"mean": 0.0129,
"eventMean": -0.03125,
"lower": -0.08703,
"upper": 0.02452,
"winRate": 0.56028
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_any_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_any_v1",
"horizon": 3,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "any",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 355,
"markets": 121,
"events": 90,
"mean": 0.05576,
"eventMean": 0.03968,
"lower": 0.00592,
"upper": 0.07344,
"winRate": 0.46197
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 315,
"markets": 130,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.06323,
"eventMean": 0.05129,
"lower": 0.01418,
"upper": 0.0884,
"winRate": 0.47619
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 717,
"markets": 309,
"events": 184,
"mean": 0.06236,
"eventMean": 0.04835,
"lower": 0.00345,
"upper": 0.09325,
"winRate": 0.52999
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 488,
"markets": 147,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.0292,
"eventMean": 0.00874,
"lower": -0.04727,
"upper": 0.06475,
"winRate": 0.46107
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h3_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 3,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": true,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 355,
"markets": 121,
"events": 90,
"mean": 0.05576,
"eventMean": 0.03968,
"lower": 0.00592,
"upper": 0.07344,
"winRate": 0.46197
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 315,
"markets": 130,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.06323,
"eventMean": 0.05129,
"lower": 0.01418,
"upper": 0.0884,
"winRate": 0.47619
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 717,
"markets": 309,
"events": 184,
"mean": 0.06236,
"eventMean": 0.04835,
"lower": 0.00345,
"upper": 0.09325,
"winRate": 0.52999
},
"eventHoldout": {
"attempts": 488,
"markets": 147,
"events": 89,
"mean": 0.0292,
"eventMean": 0.00874,
"lower": -0.04727,
"upper": 0.06475,
"winRate": 0.46107
},
"archive": {
"attempts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"events": 0,
"mean": 0,
"eventMean": 0,
"lower": 0,
"upper": 0,
"winRate": 0
}
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 485,
"markets": 135,
"events": 97,
"mean": 0.03195,
"eventMean": 0.03382,
"lower": 0.00019,
"upper": 0.06744,
"winRate": 0.49072
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 345,
"markets": 134,
"events": 97,
"mean": 0.1139,
"eventMean": 0.11375,
"lower": 0.07234,
"upper": 0.15516,
"winRate": 0.6
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 547,
"markets": 236,
"events": 143,
"mean": -0.02737,
"eventMean": 0.04917,
"lower": -0.00713,
"upper": 0.10548,
"winRate": 0.45521
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_any_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_any_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "any",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 333,
"markets": 114,
"events": 85,
"mean": 0.07371,
"eventMean": 0.0531,
"lower": 0.00416,
"upper": 0.10205,
"winRate": 0.53754
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 273,
"markets": 118,
"events": 83,
"mean": 0.09819,
"eventMean": 0.12015,
"lower": 0.06659,
"upper": 0.17372,
"winRate": 0.58974
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 462,
"markets": 199,
"events": 125,
"mean": 0.00655,
"eventMean": 0.05403,
"lower": -0.0079,
"upper": 0.11597,
"winRate": 0.48918
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 333,
"markets": 114,
"events": 85,
"mean": 0.07371,
"eventMean": 0.0531,
"lower": 0.00416,
"upper": 0.10205,
"winRate": 0.53754
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 273,
"markets": 118,
"events": 83,
"mean": 0.09819,
"eventMean": 0.12015,
"lower": 0.06659,
"upper": 0.17372,
"winRate": 0.58974
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 462,
"markets": 199,
"events": 125,
"mean": 0.00655,
"eventMean": 0.05403,
"lower": -0.0079,
"upper": 0.11597,
"winRate": 0.48918
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 82,
"markets": 58,
"events": 49,
"mean": 0.05043,
"eventMean": 0.08179,
"lower": 0.03062,
"upper": 0.13296,
"winRate": 0.63415
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 79,
"markets": 62,
"events": 42,
"mean": 0.08848,
"eventMean": 0.09249,
"lower": 0.04648,
"upper": 0.1385,
"winRate": 0.65823
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 126,
"markets": 106,
"events": 86,
"mean": 0.03627,
"eventMean": 0.0439,
"lower": -0.01117,
"upper": 0.09896,
"winRate": 0.53968
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w6_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w6_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 6,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 180,
"markets": 89,
"events": 69,
"mean": 0.0158,
"eventMean": 0.04838,
"lower": 0.01485,
"upper": 0.0819,
"winRate": 0.50556
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 111,
"markets": 70,
"events": 54,
"mean": 0.08082,
"eventMean": 0.08226,
"lower": 0.05188,
"upper": 0.11263,
"winRate": 0.69369
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 199,
"markets": 145,
"events": 105,
"mean": -0.00965,
"eventMean": 0.01291,
"lower": -0.03065,
"upper": 0.05646,
"winRate": 0.46231
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w1_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 1,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 81,
"markets": 56,
"events": 48,
"mean": 0.03311,
"eventMean": 0.06539,
"lower": 0.00561,
"upper": 0.12517,
"winRate": 0.59259
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 73,
"markets": 57,
"events": 38,
"mean": 0.08693,
"eventMean": 0.10723,
"lower": 0.05095,
"upper": 0.16351,
"winRate": 0.64384
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 94,
"markets": 76,
"events": 59,
"mean": -0.00297,
"eventMean": 0.02926,
"lower": -0.04384,
"upper": 0.10237,
"winRate": 0.57447
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w6_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w6_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 6,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 131,
"markets": 78,
"events": 62,
"mean": 0.02333,
"eventMean": 0.05209,
"lower": 0.01618,
"upper": 0.08801,
"winRate": 0.52672
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 94,
"markets": 65,
"events": 51,
"mean": 0.08313,
"eventMean": 0.07728,
"lower": 0.04447,
"upper": 0.11009,
"winRate": 0.69149
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 156,
"markets": 125,
"events": 94,
"mean": -0.00596,
"eventMean": 0.00639,
"lower": -0.04423,
"upper": 0.05701,
"winRate": 0.46795
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 92,
"markets": 61,
"events": 50,
"mean": 0.03919,
"eventMean": 0.05675,
"lower": 0.01376,
"upper": 0.09974,
"winRate": 0.58696
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 69,
"markets": 54,
"events": 42,
"mean": 0.10953,
"eventMean": 0.10664,
"lower": 0.07361,
"upper": 0.13966,
"winRate": 0.73913
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 121,
"markets": 102,
"events": 83,
"mean": 0.01098,
"eventMean": 0.00984,
"lower": -0.04856,
"upper": 0.06823,
"winRate": 0.52066
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 12,
"window": 3,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 132,
"markets": 74,
"events": 58,
"mean": 0.02554,
"eventMean": 0.05005,
"lower": 0.01193,
"upper": 0.08817,
"winRate": 0.53788
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 82,
"markets": 60,
"events": 47,
"mean": 0.10817,
"eventMean": 0.10262,
"lower": 0.06974,
"upper": 0.13551,
"winRate": 0.7439
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 154,
"markets": 125,
"events": 93,
"mean": 0.00192,
"eventMean": 0.00149,
"lower": -0.05216,
"upper": 0.05514,
"winRate": 0.50649
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 24,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 930,
"markets": 173,
"events": 118,
"mean": 0.02954,
"eventMean": 0.04119,
"lower": 0.01314,
"upper": 0.06923,
"winRate": 0.46452
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 567,
"markets": 177,
"events": 125,
"mean": 0.05089,
"eventMean": 0.04431,
"lower": 0.01191,
"upper": 0.07671,
"winRate": 0.5097
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 823,
"markets": 298,
"events": 167,
"mean": -0.09567,
"eventMean": -0.01876,
"lower": -0.07035,
"upper": 0.03282,
"winRate": 0.38396
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 24,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "All"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 1243,
"markets": 182,
"events": 121,
"mean": 0.03198,
"eventMean": 0.03695,
"lower": 0.01005,
"upper": 0.06386,
"winRate": 0.47305
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 774,
"markets": 186,
"events": 130,
"mean": 0.05206,
"eventMean": 0.03709,
"lower": 0.00691,
"upper": 0.06727,
"winRate": 0.50646
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 1109,
"markets": 313,
"events": 174,
"mean": -0.1208,
"eventMean": -0.03578,
"lower": -0.08456,
"upper": 0.01299,
"winRate": 0.38323
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 24,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 198,
"markets": 91,
"events": 70,
"mean": 0.00891,
"eventMean": 0.05526,
"lower": 0.01641,
"upper": 0.0941,
"winRate": 0.55051
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 121,
"markets": 66,
"events": 52,
"mean": 0.0455,
"eventMean": 0.05529,
"lower": 0.0112,
"upper": 0.09938,
"winRate": 0.60331
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 154,
"markets": 102,
"events": 77,
"mean": -0.06885,
"eventMean": -0.02057,
"lower": -0.08734,
"upper": 0.0462,
"winRate": 0.49351
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_upper-mid",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_aligned_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 24,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "aligned",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "upper-mid"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 276,
"markets": 99,
"events": 75,
"mean": 0.00275,
"eventMean": 0.05019,
"lower": 0.01577,
"upper": 0.08461,
"winRate": 0.52899
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 159,
"markets": 75,
"events": 59,
"mean": 0.02802,
"eventMean": 0.05031,
"lower": 0.01072,
"upper": 0.0899,
"winRate": 0.58491
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 215,
"markets": 117,
"events": 83,
"mean": -0.09797,
"eventMean": -0.04498,
"lower": -0.10963,
"upper": 0.01967,
"winRate": 0.47907
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
},
{
"rule": {
"id": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_accelerating_v1_All_longshot",
"baseId": "fade_h24_w24_m0.08_accelerating_v1",
"horizon": 24,
"window": 24,
"minMove": 0.08,
"direction": "fade",
"confirmation": "accelerating",
"maxVol": 1,
"category": "All",
"band": "longshot"
},
"passesHoldout": false,
"passesEventHoldout": false,
"passesArchive": false,
"train": {
"attempts": 215,
"markets": 89,
"events": 64,
"mean": 0.13098,
"eventMean": 0.10855,
"lower": 0.0198,
"upper": 0.1973,
"winRate": 0.45116
},
"validation": {
"attempts": 163,
"markets": 87,
"events": 59,
"mean": 0.11964,
"eventMean": 0.1129,
"lower": 0.03082,
"upper": 0.19498,
"winRate": 0.48466
},
"holdout": {
"attempts": 201,
"markets": 114,
"events": 90,
"mean": -0.11838,
"eventMean": -0.0478,
"lower": -0.17086,
"upper": 0.07525,
"winRate": 0.34328
},
"eventHoldout": null,
"archive": null
}
]
}
Reference in New Issue View Git Blame Copy Permalink