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38 lines
1.5 KiB
JSON
38 lines
1.5 KiB
JSON
{
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"generated_at": "2026-08-23T00:10:38.029Z",
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"strategy": "exact-fee settlement calibration",
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"requested_markets": 5000,
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"resolved_markets": 5000,
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"histories_with_data": 4807,
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"failures": 0,
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"observations": 7854,
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"tested_rules": 1400,
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"train_passed": 0,
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"validation_selected": 0,
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"holdout_passed": 0,
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"methodology": {
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"selection": "most recently closed eligible Yes/No markets",
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"horizons_days": [1, 3, 7, 14, 30],
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"history_fidelity_minutes": 1440,
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"maximum_price_staleness_hours": 36,
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"modeled_entry_slippage_cents": 1,
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"exact_gamma_entry_fee_schedules": true,
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"split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
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"confidence": "event-clustered 95% lower bound",
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"stability": "positive event mean in each of four chronological windows; at most one highest-entry market per underlying event or sports contest"
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},
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"partition_observations": {
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"train": 4987,
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"validation": 1419,
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"holdout": 1448
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},
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"sports_no_3d_target": {
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"train": {"events": 79, "event_mean": -0.00873, "lower_95": -0.11764},
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"validation": {"events": 53, "event_mean": -0.44135, "lower_95": -0.62545},
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"holdout": {"events": 34, "event_mean": -0.05382, "lower_95": -0.28345},
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"stability_means": [0.00226, 0.01151, -0.36967, -0.18035],
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"passes_holdout": false
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},
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"production_decision": "No static settlement-horizon, side, category, or price-band rule receives capital. Continue event-deduplicated zero-capital forward learning and require the existing promotion gates."
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}
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