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32 lines
1.4 KiB
JSON
32 lines
1.4 KiB
JSON
{
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"strategy": 64,
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"generated_at": "2026-08-22T12:17:23.498Z",
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"requested_markets": 500,
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"fetched_markets": 500,
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"histories_with_data": 500,
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"failures": 0,
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"observations": 6115,
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"methodology": {
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"cost_cents": 0.5,
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"observation_spacing_hours": 12,
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"split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
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"cluster_unit": "Polymarket event",
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"candidate_rules": 1920,
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"promotion_gate": "Positive event-clustered 90% lower bound with minimum support in train, validation, and holdout"
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},
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"probation_rule_ids": [],
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"durable_rule_ids": [],
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"horizons": [
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{"hours": 6, "train_rows": 3640, "validation_rows": 1226, "test_rows": 1223, "validation_selected": 0, "holdout_passed": 0},
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{"hours": 24, "train_rows": 3482, "validation_rows": 875, "test_rows": 1223, "validation_selected": 0, "holdout_passed": 0},
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{"hours": 72, "train_rows": 3043, "validation_rows": 215, "test_rows": 1223, "validation_selected": 0, "holdout_passed": 0}
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],
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"production_decision": {
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"preapproved_directional_rules": [],
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"six_hour_probation_requires_new_forward_evidence": true,
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"full_directional_promotion_requires_new_forward_evidence": true,
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"note": "No tested directional rule survived validation at any horizon. This active-market audit can still contain survivorship bias, so it cannot justify relaxing the live evidence gates."
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},
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"reproduce": "ADAPTIVE_MARKETS=500 ADAPTIVE_CONCURRENCY=12 npm run evaluate:adaptive"
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}
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