{
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-22T00:55:19.692Z",
  "strategy": 61,
  "verdict": "No tested directional, shock-fade, or near-settlement rule earned capital permission. Keep those lanes observation-only and retain only live depth-and-fee-verified complete bundles as immediately capital-enabled.",
  "costModel": {
    "directional": "Gamma entry and exit taker fee schedules plus 0.5 cents of round-trip slippage",
    "settlement": "Gamma entry taker fee plus 0.5 cents of entry slippage; redemption has no modeled exit trade",
    "unknownFeeSchedule": "4 cent conservative fee fallback"
  },
  "directional": {
    "primary": {
      "activeMarkets": 1000,
      "activeMarketsSkipped": 0,
      "eventsAt12Hours": 208,
      "eventMeanAt12Hours": -0.03932,
      "lower90At12Hours": -0.05078,
      "upper90At12Hours": -0.02786,
      "robustPositiveRulesAt12Hours": 0,
      "robustNegativeRulesAt12Hours": 64
    },
    "independent": {
      "activeMarkets": 1000,
      "activeMarketsSkipped": 1000,
      "eventsAt12Hours": 254,
      "eventMeanAt12Hours": -0.05392,
      "lower90At12Hours": -0.06326,
      "upper90At12Hours": -0.04457,
      "robustPositiveRulesByHorizon": {
        "6": 0,
        "12": 0,
        "24": 0,
        "72": 0
      },
      "robustNegativeRulesByHorizon": {
        "6": 69,
        "12": 66,
        "24": 51,
        "72": 34
      }
    }
  },
  "settlement": {
    "recentResolvedMarkets": 3000,
    "marketsWithHistory": 2916,
    "testedRules": 297,
    "horizonsDays": [1, 3, 7, 14, 30],
    "robustPositiveRules": 0
  },
  "shockFade": {
    "selectedOnIndependentCohort": "fade_h12_w3_m0.08_aligned_v1_All_All",
    "freshPrimaryTrainLower90": 0.02099,
    "freshPrimaryValidationLower90": 0.02641,
    "freshPrimaryHoldoutLower90": -0.00751,
    "freshPrimaryVerdict": "rejected"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "CLOB price history is a midpoint proxy and does not reconstruct historical order-book depth.",
    "Active-market cohorts are survivorship-biased, so positive results would still require resolved-market and forward validation.",
    "The absence of a validated rule is evidence for retaining cash, not proof that no future opportunity can exist."
  ]
}