{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-23T00:10:38.029Z",
  "strategy": "exact-fee settlement calibration",
  "requested_markets": 5000,
  "resolved_markets": 5000,
  "histories_with_data": 4807,
  "failures": 0,
  "observations": 7854,
  "tested_rules": 1400,
  "train_passed": 0,
  "validation_selected": 0,
  "holdout_passed": 0,
  "methodology": {
    "selection": "most recently closed eligible Yes/No markets",
    "horizons_days": [1, 3, 7, 14, 30],
    "history_fidelity_minutes": 1440,
    "maximum_price_staleness_hours": 36,
    "modeled_entry_slippage_cents": 1,
    "exact_gamma_entry_fee_schedules": true,
    "split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
    "confidence": "event-clustered 95% lower bound",
    "stability": "positive event mean in each of four chronological windows; at most one highest-entry market per underlying event or sports contest"
  },
  "partition_observations": {
    "train": 4987,
    "validation": 1419,
    "holdout": 1448
  },
  "sports_no_3d_target": {
    "train": {"events": 79, "event_mean": -0.00873, "lower_95": -0.11764},
    "validation": {"events": 53, "event_mean": -0.44135, "lower_95": -0.62545},
    "holdout": {"events": 34, "event_mean": -0.05382, "lower_95": -0.28345},
    "stability_means": [0.00226, 0.01151, -0.36967, -0.18035],
    "passes_holdout": false
  },
  "production_decision": "No static settlement-horizon, side, category, or price-band rule receives capital. Continue event-deduplicated zero-capital forward learning and require the existing promotion gates."
}