{
  "strategy": 64,
  "generated_at": "2026-08-22T12:17:23.498Z",
  "requested_markets": 500,
  "fetched_markets": 500,
  "histories_with_data": 500,
  "failures": 0,
  "observations": 6115,
  "methodology": {
    "cost_cents": 0.5,
    "observation_spacing_hours": 12,
    "split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
    "cluster_unit": "Polymarket event",
    "candidate_rules": 1920,
    "promotion_gate": "Positive event-clustered 90% lower bound with minimum support in train, validation, and holdout"
  },
  "probation_rule_ids": [],
  "durable_rule_ids": [],
  "horizons": [
    {"hours": 6, "train_rows": 3640, "validation_rows": 1226, "test_rows": 1223, "validation_selected": 0, "holdout_passed": 0},
    {"hours": 24, "train_rows": 3482, "validation_rows": 875, "test_rows": 1223, "validation_selected": 0, "holdout_passed": 0},
    {"hours": 72, "train_rows": 3043, "validation_rows": 215, "test_rows": 1223, "validation_selected": 0, "holdout_passed": 0}
  ],
  "production_decision": {
    "preapproved_directional_rules": [],
    "six_hour_probation_requires_new_forward_evidence": true,
    "full_directional_promotion_requires_new_forward_evidence": true,
    "note": "No tested directional rule survived validation at any horizon. This active-market audit can still contain survivorship bias, so it cannot justify relaxing the live evidence gates."
  },
  "reproduce": "ADAPTIVE_MARKETS=500 ADAPTIVE_CONCURRENCY=12 npm run evaluate:adaptive"
}