{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-21T21:20:00.000Z",
  "strategy": "sports-contest-no-three-day-exploration-v1",
  "production_strategy": 62,
  "status": "bounded-paper-exploration-not-proven",
  "selection": {
    "resolved_markets_requested": 5000,
    "histories_with_data": 4731,
    "side": "NO",
    "entry_range": [0.03, 0.97],
    "decision_horizon_days": 3,
    "category": "Sports",
    "contest_clustering": "dated Gamma market slug prefix, with game-start and normalized-title fallback",
    "one_market_per_contest": "highest NO entry",
    "decision_anchor": "published gameStartTime",
    "modeled_entry": "historical midpoint plus exact Gamma taker fee plus 0.5-cent slippage",
    "settlement_exit_fee": 0
  },
  "corrected_5000_market_result": {
    "independent_contests": 76,
    "train": {
      "contests": 34,
      "mean_return": 0.23457,
      "lower_95": 0.057,
      "win_rate": 0.912
    },
    "validation": {
      "contests": 20,
      "mean_return": 0.01776,
      "lower_95": -0.19809,
      "win_rate": 0.85
    },
    "holdout": {
      "contests": 22,
      "mean_return": 0.36683,
      "lower_95": 0.12251,
      "win_rate": 0.909
    },
    "chronological_quarter_means": [0.35259, 0.07435, 0.00466, 0.28046],
    "passed_strict_gate": false,
    "failure_reason": "Validation's 95% lower confidence bound crossed zero. The point estimate repeated, but the edge was not independently precise in every segment."
  },
  "disjoint_checks": {
    "recent_3000": {
      "train_mean": 0.03751,
      "validation_mean": 0.16165,
      "holdout_mean": 0.35035,
      "holdout_lower_95": 0.07389,
      "passed_strict_gate": false
    },
    "older_3000": {
      "train_mean": 0.04042,
      "validation_mean": 0.46699,
      "holdout_mean": 0.48381,
      "chronological_quarter_means": [-0.10883, 0.26995, 0.24012, 0.48381],
      "passed_strict_gate": false,
      "failure_reason": "The earliest older chronological quarter was negative."
    }
  },
  "production_constraints": {
    "paper_only": true,
    "initial_position_pct": 0.5,
    "promoted_position_pct": 0.75,
    "maximum_position_pct": 1,
    "total_lane_cap_pct": 3,
    "maximum_new_contests_per_cycle": 1,
    "promotion_events": 20,
    "maximum_promotion_events": 40,
    "suspension_events": 15,
    "suspension_rule": "mean at or below -5%, upper 90% bound at or below zero, or realized lane loss at least 1% of starting portfolio",
    "exact_entry_fee_required": true,
    "unknown_fee_schedule_rejected": true,
    "offline_fresh_cache_allowed": true,
    "offline_stale_cache_mark_only": true,
    "settlement_must_be_verified": true
  },
  "interpretation": "Repeated positive point estimates justify a small observable paper experiment, not a return promise. Capital size must respond only to independent forward contest settlements."
}