diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 0139c2b..7f9b660 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -1,14 +1,14 @@ # 📊 Polymarket Analyst — standalone website A **single-file website**. Everything (fetching live Polymarket data, the -analysis engine, and the AI paper-trading agent) runs in your browser. The +analysis engine, and the ten AI paper-trading agents) runs in your browser. The paper portfolio is saved in your browser's local storage. No server, no keys. ## Just look at it now Double-click **`index.html`** — it opens in your browser and works immediately. On first open it fetches live markets, generates today's suggestions, and the -agent makes its first trades. It auto-refreshes once per day; the **Run daily -cycle now** button forces a refresh anytime. +agents run a seven-day backtest, then begin live tracking. It auto-refreshes +once per day; the **Run cycle** button forces a refresh anytime. ## Put it online (free) so you can reach it from any device @@ -22,11 +22,11 @@ Pick one — all give you a public URL: **Option B — GitHub Pages** 1. Create a new GitHub repo and upload `index.html`. 2. Repo → Settings → Pages → Branch: `main`, folder: `/root` → Save. -3. Your site appears at `https://.github.io//`. +3. Your site appears at `https://theodore-song.github.io//`. **Option C — Vercel** -1. → Add New → Project → import the folder (or `vercel` - CLI in this folder) → Deploy. +1. → Add New → Project → import this GitHub repo under the + `theodore_song` Vercel account (or use the `vercel` CLI in this folder) → Deploy. ## Notes - Paper trading only — no real money, nothing places real orders. diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 09c8fed..ff7ecc2 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -3,8 +3,8 @@ -Polymarket Analyst — 5 AI Agents Compete to Trade Prediction Markets - +Polymarket Analyst — 10 AI Agents Compete to Trade Prediction Markets + @@ -45,19 +45,20 @@ h1,h2,h3,.brand-name{font-family:'Space Grotesk','Inter',sans-serif} .topnav{position:sticky;top:0;z-index:50;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:18px;flex-wrap:wrap; padding:14px 18px;margin:14px 0 8px;border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:18px; background:rgba(10,15,28,.72);backdrop-filter:blur(16px);box-shadow:var(--shadow)} -.brand{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:11px} +.brand{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:11px;min-width:0} .logo{width:40px;height:40px;border-radius:12px;display:grid;place-items:center;font-size:20px; background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2));box-shadow:0 6px 20px -6px var(--accent)} .brand-name{font-size:18px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:-.2px;line-height:1} .brand-sub{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:2px} -.tabs{display:flex;gap:4px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);padding:4px;border-radius:12px;border:1px solid var(--border)} +.tabs{display:flex;gap:4px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);padding:4px;border-radius:12px;border:1px solid var(--border);max-width:100%;overflow-x:auto} .tab{appearance:none;border:0;background:transparent;color:var(--muted);font-family:inherit; font-size:13.5px;font-weight:600;padding:8px 14px;border-radius:9px;cursor:pointer;transition:.18s;white-space:nowrap} .tab:hover{color:var(--text)} .tab.active{color:#fff;background:linear-gradient(135deg,var(--accent),var(--accent2));box-shadow:0 6px 18px -8px var(--accent)} -.nav-right{margin-left:auto;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:10px} +.nav-right{margin-left:auto;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:10px;min-width:0} .status{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;font-size:12.5px;color:var(--muted); - padding:6px 11px;border-radius:9px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);border:1px solid var(--border)} + padding:6px 11px;border-radius:9px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);border:1px solid var(--border);min-width:0} +#statusText{overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;white-space:nowrap;max-width:220px} .dot{width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;background:var(--muted)} .dot.live{background:var(--green);animation:pulse 1.6s infinite} @keyframes pulse{0%{box-shadow:0 0 0 0 rgba(52,211,153,.5)}70%{box-shadow:0 0 0 7px rgba(52,211,153,0)}100%{box-shadow:0 0 0 0 rgba(52,211,153,0)}} @@ -134,6 +135,22 @@ h1,h2,h3,.brand-name{font-family:'Space Grotesk','Inter',sans-serif} .segbtn:hover{color:var(--text);border-color:var(--border-strong)} .segbtn.active{color:#fff;border-color:transparent} +.agent-brief{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1.2fr repeat(4,minmax(110px,.55fr));gap:14px;margin-bottom:18px} +.brief-main{background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:16px;padding:18px;backdrop-filter:blur(14px)} +.brief-title{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:10px;font-family:'Space Grotesk';font-weight:700;font-size:18px;margin-bottom:7px} +.brief-main p{margin:0;color:#cdd6e8;font-size:13.5px} +.brief-mini{background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:14px;padding:14px} +.brief-mini .k{font-size:11px;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.6px;color:var(--muted)} +.brief-mini .v{margin-top:5px;font-size:14px;font-weight:700} +.card-tools{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap} +.select{appearance:none;border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:9px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);color:var(--text); + font:600 12.5px 'Inter',sans-serif;padding:7px 28px 7px 10px;cursor:pointer} +.select:focus{outline:1px solid var(--accent)} +.loading-empty{display:grid;gap:10px;place-items:center;padding:28px 12px;text-align:center} +.loading-ring{width:34px;height:34px;border-radius:50%;border:3px solid rgba(255,255,255,.12);border-top-color:var(--accent);animation:spin .9s linear infinite} +.empty-copy{max-width:420px;color:var(--muted);font-size:13.5px} +@keyframes spin{to{transform:rotate(360deg)}} + /* ---------- suggestions ---------- */ .filterbar{display:flex;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:8px} .chip{font-size:13px;font-weight:600;padding:7px 14px;border-radius:999px;cursor:pointer;background:rgba(255,255,255,.05);border:1px solid var(--border);color:var(--muted);transition:.16s;user-select:none} @@ -172,9 +189,28 @@ a.market-link:hover{text-decoration:underline} .badge{font-weight:700;font-size:10px;padding:2px 7px;border-radius:5px;margin-right:7px} .badge.OPEN{background:rgba(124,140,255,.2);color:var(--accent)} .badge.CLOSE{background:rgba(251,191,36,.2);color:var(--yellow)} +.badge.STOP{background:rgba(251,113,133,.2);color:var(--red)} .log-date{color:var(--muted)} .empty{color:var(--muted);font-size:13.5px;padding:14px 0;text-align:center} +@media (max-width:700px){ + .app{padding:0 10px 42px;max-width:100%;overflow:hidden} + .topnav{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:12px;padding:14px;margin:10px 0 8px;border-radius:14px} + .brand-sub{white-space:normal} + .tabs{width:100%;padding-bottom:5px} + .tab{padding:8px 12px} + .nav-right{width:100%;margin-left:0;display:grid;grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) auto auto;gap:8px} + #statusText{max-width:none;white-space:normal} + .status{align-items:flex-start} + .btn{padding:9px 11px} + .section-title{font-size:19px} + .stats{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:12px} + .agent-brief{grid-template-columns:1fr} + .pos{align-items:flex-start;gap:12px} + .pos .pq{max-width:none} + .right{min-width:92px} +} + /* ---------- about ---------- */ .about-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(230px,1fr));gap:16px;margin-bottom:8px} .feature{background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:16px;padding:20px;backdrop-filter:blur(14px)} @@ -292,9 +328,16 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
🤖 Agent Portfolios
+
-

Open Positions

+

Open Positions

Activity Log

@@ -310,7 +353,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
  • Fetch — page through hundreds of live markets and tag each by category.
  • Score — rank every market 0–100 by conviction and estimate its edge vs. a fair-value model.
  • Suggest — surface the strongest picks per category with a plain-English rationale.
    • -
  • Compete — all five agents trade the same suggestions their own way, then snapshot equity for the leaderboard.
    • +
  • Compete — the strategy agents trade the same suggestions their own way, stop-loss weak positions, then every agent snapshots equity for the leaderboard.
    • ⚠️ Paper trading only — not financial advice. Nothing here places real orders or moves money. The analysis is a transparent heuristic. All portfolios live in this browser's local storage (each device keeps its own).
    @@ -326,16 +369,18 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color "use strict"; /* ============================================================ Polymarket Arena — fully client-side. - Fetches live markets, scores them, and runs FIVE competing + Fetches live markets, scores them, and runs ten competing paper-trading agents. State persists in localStorage. ============================================================ */ const GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"; const STARTING_BALANCE = 10000; +const STOP_LOSS_PCT = 0.18; const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2"; const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v2"; const FOCUS_KEY = "pma_focus_v1"; const VIEW_KEY = "pma_view_v1"; +const PF_SORT_KEY = "pma_portfolio_sort_v1"; const CATEGORIES = ["All","Politics","Sports","Crypto","Economy","Pop Culture","Other"]; const CAT_COLORS = {Politics:"#fb7185",Sports:"#34d399",Crypto:"#fbbf24",Economy:"#7c8cff", "Pop Culture":"#c77dff",Other:"#94a1bb",All:"#7c8cff",Copy:"#22d3ee"}; @@ -346,7 +391,7 @@ const catColor = (c) => CAT_COLORS[c] || CAT_COLORS.Other; const getFocus = () => localStorage.getItem(FOCUS_KEY) || "All"; const setFocus = (c) => localStorage.setItem(FOCUS_KEY, c); -/* ---------- the five competing agents ---------- +/* ---------- the ten competing agents ---------- Each shares the same daily suggestions but ranks/sizes them differently. */ const AGENTS = [ {id:"value", name:"Value Hunter", emoji:"🎯", color:"#7c8cff", kind:"strategy", @@ -490,12 +535,15 @@ function generateSuggestions(markets,perCategory=12){ } /* ---------- Multi-agent store ---------- */ -function defaultPortfolio(){return {cash:STARTING_BALANCE,starting_balance:STARTING_BALANCE,positions:[],closed:[],history:[],snapshots:[]};} +function defaultPortfolio(){return {cash:STARTING_BALANCE,starting_balance:STARTING_BALANCE,positions:[],closed:[],history:[],snapshots:[],stopped:{}};} function defaultState(){const agents={};AGENTS.forEach(a=>agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio());return {date:null,last_run:null,agents,whales:{},copycatLeader:null,seeded:false};} function loadState(){ let st; try{st=JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem(AGENTS_KEY));}catch(e){st=null;} if(!st||!st.agents)st=defaultState(); - AGENTS.forEach(a=>{if(!st.agents[a.id])st.agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio();}); + AGENTS.forEach(a=>{ + if(!st.agents[a.id])st.agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio(); + if(!st.agents[a.id].stopped)st.agents[a.id].stopped={}; + }); if(!st.whales)st.whales={}; return st; } @@ -506,6 +554,26 @@ function saveSuggestions(sugs){const p={date:todayStr(),generated_at:nowIso(),su /* ---------- Agent mechanics ---------- */ const equity=(p)=>p.cash+p.positions.reduce((s,x)=>s+x.shares*x.current_price,0); const hasPosition=(p,id)=>p.positions.some(x=>x.market_id===id); +const stopKey=(posOrId)=>typeof posOrId==="string"?posOrId:String(posOrId.asset||posOrId.market_id||""); +const hasStoppedToday=(p,posOrId)=>p.stopped&&p.stopped[stopKey(posOrId)]===logDay(); +function rememberStop(p,pos){ + if(!p.stopped)p.stopped={}; + const key=stopKey(pos); + if(key)p.stopped[key]=logDay(); +} +function shouldStopLoss(pos){ + if(!pos.cost||pos.cost<=0)return false; + return (pos.value||0)<=pos.cost*(1-STOP_LOSS_PCT); +} +function stopOutPosition(p,pos){ + const proceeds=+(pos.shares*pos.current_price).toFixed(2); + p.cash=+(p.cash+proceeds).toFixed(2); + pos.exit_price=pos.current_price;pos.closed_at=nowIso(); + pos.realized_pnl=+(proceeds-pos.cost).toFixed(2); + p.closed.push(pos);rememberStop(p,pos); + p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"STOP",question:pos.question,side:pos.side, + detail:`Stop-loss sold '${pos.question.slice(0,40)}' at ${pct(pos.current_price)} for ${fmtUSD(proceeds)} (P&L ${fmtUSD(pos.realized_pnl)})`}); +} function markToMarket(p,priceMap){ const stillOpen=[]; for(const pos of p.positions){ @@ -521,13 +589,15 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap){ } const price=pos.side==="YES"?fresh.yes_price:fresh.no_price; pos.current_price=+price.toFixed(4);pos.value=+(pos.shares*price).toFixed(2); - pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2);stillOpen.push(pos); + pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2); + if(shouldStopLoss(pos)){stopOutPosition(p,pos);continue;} + stillOpen.push(pos); } p.positions=stillOpen; } function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus){ const cands=rankedSugs.filter(s=>(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.conviction>=cfg.minConv - &&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus)); + &&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&!hasStoppedToday(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus)); let opened=0; for(const s of cands){ if(opened>=cfg.maxNew)break; @@ -603,7 +673,9 @@ async function runWhaleAgent(p,wallet){ const held=new Set(tps.map(t=>t.asset)); const keep=[]; for(const pos of p.positions){ - if(!held.has(pos.asset)){ + if(shouldStopLoss(pos)){ + stopOutPosition(p,pos); + }else if(!held.has(pos.asset)){ const proceeds=pos.shares*pos.current_price;p.cash+=proceeds; pos.exit_price=pos.current_price;pos.realized_pnl=+(proceeds-pos.cost).toFixed(2);p.closed.push(pos); p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"CLOSE",question:pos.question,side:pos.side, @@ -614,7 +686,7 @@ async function runWhaleAgent(p,wallet){ const targets=[...tps].sort((a,b)=>b.value-a.value).slice(0,12); // copy their biggest 12 bets const book=targets.reduce((s,t)=>s+t.value,0)||1; for(const t of targets){ - if(hasAsset(p,t.asset))continue; + if(hasAsset(p,t.asset)||hasStoppedToday(p,t.asset))continue; const eq=equity(p),investable=p.cash-eq*0.05; if(investable<=50)break; const weight=t.value/book; const stake=Math.min(eq*Math.min(0.34,weight),investable); @@ -646,7 +718,7 @@ function runCopycat(p,leader,priceMap){ p.positions=keep; const book=leader.positions.reduce((s,x)=>s+(x.value||x.cost),0)||1; for(const lp of [...leader.positions].sort((a,b)=>(b.value||b.cost)-(a.value||a.cost))){ - if(hasPosition(p,lp.market_id))continue; + if(hasPosition(p,lp.market_id)||hasStoppedToday(p,lp.market_id))continue; const eq=equity(p),investable=p.cash-eq*0.05; if(investable<=50)break; const weight=(lp.value||lp.cost)/book; const stake=Math.min(eq*Math.min(0.2,weight),investable); @@ -882,6 +954,32 @@ function agentBlurb(cfg,st){ if(cfg.kind==="copycat"){const L=AGENTS.find(a=>a.id===st.copycatLeader);return `🐒 Copying ${L?esc(L.name):"the leader"}`;} return cfg.blurb; } +function agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st){ + return agentBlurb(cfg,st).replace(/<[^>]*>/g,""); +} +function bestAndWorst(p){ + const open=p.positions||[]; + if(!open.length)return {best:"No open trades yet",worst:"No drawdowns yet"}; + const sorted=[...open].sort((a,b)=>(b.unrealized_pnl||0)-(a.unrealized_pnl||0)); + const label=x=>`${x.question.slice(0,34)}${x.question.length>34?"...":""} (${(x.unrealized_pnl||0)>=0?"+":""}${fmtUSD(x.unrealized_pnl||0)})`; + return {best:label(sorted[0]),worst:label(sorted[sorted.length-1])}; +} +function renderAgentBrief(cfg,p,st){ + const root=$("agentBrief"); if(!root)return; + const bw=bestAndWorst(p); + const risk=cfg.kind==="whale"?"Mirror risk":cfg.kind==="copycat"?"Adaptive":cfg.maxFrac>=0.12?"Higher risk":cfg.maxFrac<=0.05?"Lower risk":"Balanced"; + const cadence=cfg.kind==="whale"?"Copies biggest live holdings":cfg.kind==="copycat"?"Follows current strategy leader":`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max`; + const thesis=agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st); + root.innerHTML=` +
    +
    ${cfg.emoji}${cfg.name}
    +

    ${esc(thesis)}

    +
    +
    Style
    ${esc(risk)}
    +
    Trade Rule
    ${esc(cadence)}
    +
    Stop Loss
    ${Math.round(STOP_LOSS_PCT*100)}% drawdown
    +
    Best / Worst
    ${esc(bw.best)}
    ${esc(bw.worst)}
    `; +} function renderLeaderboard(){ const b=board(); const st=loadState(); $("lbSub").textContent="· "+b[0].c.name+" leads"; @@ -966,12 +1064,14 @@ function renderSuggestions(){ function renderPortfolioTab(){ const st=loadState(); let viewId=localStorage.getItem(VIEW_KEY); if(!AGENTS.some(a=>a.id===viewId))viewId="value"; + const cfg=agentById(viewId); $("agentSel").innerHTML=AGENTS.map(a=>{ const active=a.id===viewId; const style=active?`background:linear-gradient(135deg,${a.color},${a.color});border-color:transparent`:""; return `${a.emoji} ${a.name}`;}).join(""); document.querySelectorAll("#agentSel .segbtn").forEach(el=>el.addEventListener("click",()=>{localStorage.setItem(VIEW_KEY,el.dataset.agent);renderPortfolioTab();})); const p=st.agents[viewId]||defaultPortfolio();const eq=equity(p),pnl=eq-p.starting_balance; + renderAgentBrief(cfg,p,st); const stats=[ {ic:"💰",label:"Equity",value:fmtUSD(eq)}, {ic:"💵",label:"Cash",value:fmtUSD(p.cash)}, @@ -980,13 +1080,33 @@ function renderPortfolioTab(){ {ic:"📂",label:"Open",value:p.positions.length}, ]; $("statsPf").innerHTML=stats.map(s=>`
    ${s.ic}
    ${s.label}
    ${s.value}
    `).join(""); + const sort=$("positionSort"); + if(sort){ + sort.value=localStorage.getItem(PF_SORT_KEY)||"pnl_desc"; + sort.onchange=()=>{localStorage.setItem(PF_SORT_KEY,sort.value);renderPositions(p.positions);}; + } renderPositions(p.positions); renderHistory((p.history||[]).slice(-50).reverse()); } function renderPositions(positions){ const root=$("positions");if(!root)return; - if(!positions.length){root.innerHTML=`
    No open positions.
    `;return;} - root.innerHTML=positions.map(p=>{const pnl=p.unrealized_pnl||0,col=catColor(p.category); + if(!positions.length){ + const st=loadState(); + const isBacktesting=!st.seeded&&(($("statusText")&&$("statusText").textContent)||"").includes("backtest"); + root.innerHTML=isBacktesting + ? `
    Building agent portfolios...
    The app is replaying the past week, finding top traders, and marking positions to real Polymarket prices. This fills in automatically when the backtest finishes.
    ` + : `
    No open positions yet. Run a cycle to let this agent shop today's suggestions.
    `; + return; + } + const sort=localStorage.getItem(PF_SORT_KEY)||"pnl_desc"; + const ordered=[...positions].sort((a,b)=>{ + if(sort==="pnl_asc")return (a.unrealized_pnl||0)-(b.unrealized_pnl||0); + if(sort==="value_desc")return (b.value||0)-(a.value||0); + if(sort==="newest")return String(b.opened_at||"").localeCompare(String(a.opened_at||"")); + if(sort==="category")return String(a.category||"").localeCompare(String(b.category||""))||((b.unrealized_pnl||0)-(a.unrealized_pnl||0)); + return (b.unrealized_pnl||0)-(a.unrealized_pnl||0); + }); + root.innerHTML=ordered.map(p=>{const pnl=p.unrealized_pnl||0,col=catColor(p.category); return `
    ${esc(p.question)}
    ${p.category?`${esc(p.category)} `:""}${p.shares} ${p.side} @ ${Math.round(p.entry_price*100)}¢ → ${Math.round(p.current_price*100)}¢
    @@ -1025,7 +1145,7 @@ $("runBtn").addEventListener("click",async()=>{ btn.disabled=false;btn.textContent="Run cycle"; }); $("resetBtn").addEventListener("click",()=>{ - if(!confirm("Reset all five agents to their $10,000 starting balance?"))return; + if(!confirm("Reset all ten agents to their $10,000 starting balance?"))return; saveState(defaultState());localStorage.removeItem(SUG_KEY);toast("All agents reset.");renderAll(); });