From f341136d80c596d92ddd03cd6fd1c23591336dd8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Theodore Song Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:45:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Apply history-tested risk priors --- README.md | 10 ++++++++-- index.html | 51 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------ sw.js | 2 +- 3 files changed, 48 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index e101865..14eb01c 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or -Vercel Blob. Engine v36 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped +Vercel Blob. Engine v37 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data expires after 24 hours. @@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ small samples toward neutral, caps sizing changes to 0.68x-1.30x, and reserves 15% of candidates for deterministic exploration so a stale regime cannot become permanent. -Engine v36 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the +Engine v37 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the 18% stop cannot fill. New core positions are capped at 2.5%-4% of equity and aggressive positions at 3%-5%, with lower limits for near-term, extreme-price, reversal, and fast-moving setups. Oversized positions inherited from older @@ -50,6 +50,12 @@ of hourly Polymarket history. The evaluator forms signals only from prior one-hour, one-day, and one-week prices, marks them 12 hours later, applies a conservative half-cent cost estimate, and reports a chronological 70/30 split. Set `EVAL_MARKETS` or `EVAL_CONCURRENCY` to change the default 80-market run. +The first 80-market audit found that reversal signals lost 4.34% on average in +both chronological partitions, while crypto and longshot samples were also +negative overall. Engine v37 therefore blocks reversal entries outside the fixed +15% exploration lane and applies modest sizing penalties to crypto and longshots. +It does not boost any rule from this audit because no positive rule was robust +across the chronological split. Paper accounts created with a password are also saved through the backend, so a user can log in from another device and see the same paper portfolio, activity, diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 797e275..dc65a84 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color