Reserve durable adaptive evidence capacity

.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ jobs:
       - run: node scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs
         env:
           ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
-          EXPECTED_BUILD: "117"
+          EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"
           RUNTIME_BRANCH: runtime-state
           RUNTIME_STATE_PATH: runtime/state.json
           GITHUB_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}

README.md

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
 allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
 expires after 24 hours.
 
-Build 117 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
+Build 118 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
 It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
 even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
 workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
@@ -32,6 +32,10 @@ contains only `pma_agents_v2` and `pma_suggestions_v5`, with suggestions capped
 300 to keep cross-device loads small. The API preserves oldest-first pending
 observations plus fee schedules, agent promotion scopes, and verified bundle
 capacity from the bounded runtime instead of applying its older lossy compactor.
+Public maker outcomes retain only calibration fields and action logs are bounded
+to 80 entries per agent. If the 875 KB transport budget is reached, up to 96 of
+the newest completed directional outcomes are reserved before the oldest
+still-pending observations consume the remaining evidence space.
 Paper accounts, passwords, email settings,
 investment allocations, chat history, wallet information, and live-money
 settings are explicitly excluded. While that fallback is active, ordinary
@@ -51,7 +55,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
 several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
 three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
 
-Each Build 117 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
+Each Build 118 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
 complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
 pairs. Gamma's market-specific fee flag replaces the old blanket 0.5-cent fee
 reserve for markets declared fee-free. The closest 60 structures are then
@@ -70,7 +74,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
 executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
 failure.
 
-Build 117 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
+Build 118 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
 the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
 separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
 slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
@@ -86,7 +90,7 @@ directional evidence under fee policy 2 and keeps those lanes observation-only
 until current independent 24-hour and 72-hour cohorts pass the existing
 promotion gate.
 
-Build 117 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
+Build 118 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
 capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
 several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
 only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
@@ -206,7 +210,7 @@ evidence proves an edge.
 
 Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
 Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
-reliable confidence bound, so Build 117 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
+reliable confidence bound, so Build 118 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
 
 Strategy 62 instead uses the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
 NO cohort as a bounded paper exploration lane. The corrected 5,000-market run

index.html

@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 62 · verified-capacity bundles · build 117</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 62 · verified-capacity bundles · build 118</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
-  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 117 active:</b> The public paper agents target five-minute slots with one serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions successor after every successful cycle and cron as recovery. The server preserves oldest-first pending evidence, exact fee schedules, agent promotion scopes, and bundle execution diagnostics from the already-bounded runtime snapshot, so cloud restarts and offline cycles do not silently lose learning context. Each fresh cloud browser reconstructs a bounded offline cache from the shared suggestions and open positions, allowing 90-minute cached entries and 24-hour mark-only continuity without persisting private account data; live-depth bundles still require a live connection. Each live cycle scans the 500 most-active eligible markets and 1,000 most-active events. Complete bundles are repriced across every ask level to the largest equal-leg quantity that remains profitable, depth-covered, fee-verified, and below $400, then portfolio sizing applies the agent's tighter cash and 4% caps. Strategy 62 also keeps the bounded sports-contest NO exploration lane under forward promotion or suspension. Intact guaranteed bundles are conservatively held at cost in portfolio accounting, while modeled profit remains unbooked until settlement. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 118 active:</b> The public paper agents target five-minute slots with one serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions successor after every successful cycle and cron as recovery. The server preserves oldest-first pending evidence, exact fee schedules, agent promotion scopes, and bundle execution diagnostics from the already-bounded runtime snapshot, so cloud restarts and offline cycles do not silently lose learning context. Each fresh cloud browser reconstructs a bounded offline cache from the shared suggestions and open positions, allowing 90-minute cached entries and 24-hour mark-only continuity without persisting private account data; live-depth bundles still require a live connection. Each live cycle scans the 500 most-active eligible markets and 1,000 most-active events. Complete bundles are repriced across every ask level to the largest equal-leg quantity that remains profitable, depth-covered, fee-verified, and below $400, then portfolio sizing applies the agent's tighter cash and 4% caps. Strategy 62 also keeps the bounded sports-contest NO exploration lane under forward promotion or suspension. Intact guaranteed bundles are conservatively held at cost in portfolio accounting, while modeled profit remains unbooked until settlement. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build 117 · Adaptive strategy 62 · Serialized self-chained five-minute slots with cron recovery · Oldest-first bounded learning transport · Restart-safe offline runtime · Exact-fee directional learning · Verified-capacity complete bundles · Conservative intact-bundle accounting · Contest-deduplicated sports exploration · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Autonomous runtime 2 · Offline runtime 3 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
+    Build 118 · Adaptive strategy 62 · Serialized self-chained five-minute slots with cron recovery · Oldest-first bounded learning transport · Restart-safe offline runtime · Exact-fee directional learning · Verified-capacity complete bundles · Conservative intact-bundle accounting · Contest-deduplicated sports exploration · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Autonomous runtime 2 · Offline runtime 3 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
 const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const BUILD_VERSION = 117;
+const BUILD_VERSION = 118;
 const AGENT_LEARNING_VERSION = 3;
 const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 62;
 const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 3;
@@ -809,7 +809,7 @@ const CATEGORIES = ["All","Politics","Sports","Crypto","Economy","Pop Culture","
 const SYNC_KEYS=[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY,FOCUS_KEY,VIEW_KEY,PF_SORT_KEY,CHART_RANGE_KEY,INVEST_KEY,PAPER_KEY,LIVE_KEY,EMAIL_ALERT_KEY];
 const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object.freeze([AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY]);
 const SYNC_LIMITS={closed:80,history:160,snapshots:240,suggestions:900,paperHistory:120,paperSnapshots:120,audit:120};
-const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_LIMITS=Object.freeze({...SYNC_LIMITS,suggestions:300});
+const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_LIMITS=Object.freeze({...SYNC_LIMITS,history:80,suggestions:300});
 const CAT_COLORS = {Politics:"#fb7185",Sports:"#34d399",Crypto:"#fbbf24",Economy:"#7c8cff",
   "Pop Culture":"#c77dff",Other:"#94a1bb",All:"#7c8cff"};
 const CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com";
@@ -944,6 +944,7 @@ const SIGNAL_EVAL_HOURS = SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS[0];
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_PENDING_LIMIT = 600;
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_OUTCOME_LIMIT = 1000;
 const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES = 875000;
+const PUBLIC_SIGNAL_OUTCOME_RESERVE = 96;
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_RETRY_HOURS = SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS[SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS.length-1]+SIGNAL_EVAL_TOLERANCE_HOURS;
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_DUE_FETCH_LIMIT = 80;
 const currentCycleHour = () => {const p=partsInLocalTime();return `${p.year}-${p.month}-${p.day}T${p.hour}:${p.minute}|s${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION}`;};
@@ -1945,6 +1946,13 @@ function compactDecisionForPublic(decision){
   }
   return out;
 }
+function compactMakerOutcomeForPublic(row){
+  if(!row||typeof row!=="object")return row;
+  return {quote_id:row.quote_id,market_id:row.market_id,event_key:row.event_key,category:row.category,
+    spread:row.spread,spread_band:row.spread_band,reward_yield_band:row.reward_yield_band,status:row.status,
+    pnl:row.pnl,shadow_only:row.shadow_only,deployed_capital:row.deployed_capital,reserved_capital:row.reserved_capital,
+    completed_at:row.completed_at,strategy_version:row.strategy_version,maker_strategy_version:row.maker_strategy_version};
+}
 function compactSuggestionForSync(s){
   if(!s||typeof s!=="object")return s;
   return {
@@ -2102,7 +2110,10 @@ function collectSyncItems(){const items={};SYNC_KEYS.forEach(k=>{const v=localSt
 function collectPublicRuntimeItems(){
   const st=compactAgentStateForSync(loadState(),PUBLIC_RUNTIME_LIMITS);
   st.signal_ledger=compactPublicSignalLedger(st.signal_ledger);
-  AGENTS.forEach(agent=>{if(st.agents&&st.agents[agent.id])st.agents[agent.id].lastDecision=compactDecisionForPublic(st.agents[agent.id].lastDecision);});
+  AGENTS.forEach(agent=>{if(st.agents&&st.agents[agent.id]){
+    st.agents[agent.id].lastDecision=compactDecisionForPublic(st.agents[agent.id].lastDecision);
+    st.agents[agent.id].maker_outcomes=(st.agents[agent.id].maker_outcomes||[]).map(compactMakerOutcomeForPublic);
+  }});
   st.pending_sync=false;
   st.runtime_managed=true;
   const suggestions=compactPublicSuggestionsForSync(loadSuggestions());
@@ -2116,22 +2127,31 @@ function fitPublicRuntimeSnapshot(snapshot){
   snapshot.summary.signal_ledger={pending_retained:pending.length,pending_total:pending.length,
     outcomes_retained:outcomes.length,outcomes_total:outcomes.length,byte_budget:PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES};
   if(runtimeSnapshotByteLength(snapshot)<=PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES)return snapshot;
-  ledger.outcomes=[];
+  const writeState=()=>{snapshot.items[AGENTS_KEY]=JSON.stringify(st);return runtimeSnapshotByteLength(snapshot)<=PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES;};
-  snapshot.items[AGENTS_KEY]=JSON.stringify(st);
+  const reservedCount=Math.min(PUBLIC_SIGNAL_OUTCOME_RESERVE,outcomes.length);
-  if(runtimeSnapshotByteLength(snapshot)>PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES&&pending.length){
+  ledger.pending=[];ledger.outcomes=reservedCount?outcomes.slice(-reservedCount):[];
-    let low=0,high=pending.length;
+  if(!writeState()&&reservedCount){
+    let low=0,high=reservedCount;
     while(low<high){
-      const mid=Math.ceil((low+high)/2);ledger.pending=pending.slice(0,mid);snapshot.items[AGENTS_KEY]=JSON.stringify(st);
+      const mid=Math.ceil((low+high)/2);ledger.outcomes=mid?outcomes.slice(-mid):[];
-      if(runtimeSnapshotByteLength(snapshot)<=PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES)low=mid;else high=mid-1;
+      if(writeState())low=mid;else high=mid-1;
     }
-    ledger.pending=pending.slice(0,low);
+    ledger.outcomes=low?outcomes.slice(-low):[];writeState();
   }
-  let low=0,high=outcomes.length;
+  let low=0,high=pending.length;
   while(low<high){
-    const mid=Math.ceil((low+high)/2);ledger.outcomes=outcomes.slice(-mid);snapshot.items[AGENTS_KEY]=JSON.stringify(st);
+    const mid=Math.ceil((low+high)/2);ledger.pending=pending.slice(0,mid);
-    if(runtimeSnapshotByteLength(snapshot)<=PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES)low=mid;else high=mid-1;
+    if(writeState())low=mid;else high=mid-1;
+  }
+  ledger.pending=pending.slice(0,low);writeState();
+  if(low===pending.length&&ledger.outcomes.length<outcomes.length){
+    let outcomeLow=ledger.outcomes.length,outcomeHigh=outcomes.length;
+    while(outcomeLow<outcomeHigh){
+      const mid=Math.ceil((outcomeLow+outcomeHigh)/2);ledger.outcomes=outcomes.slice(-mid);
+      if(writeState())outcomeLow=mid;else outcomeHigh=mid-1;
+    }
+    ledger.outcomes=outcomeLow?outcomes.slice(-outcomeLow):[];writeState();
   }
-  ledger.outcomes=low?outcomes.slice(-low):[];snapshot.items[AGENTS_KEY]=JSON.stringify(st);
   snapshot.summary.signal_ledger.pending_retained=ledger.pending.length;
   snapshot.summary.signal_ledger.outcomes_retained=ledger.outcomes.length;
   return snapshot;
@@ -6932,6 +6952,8 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
   recordMakerOutcome(makerDedupeBook,dedupeQuote,"unfilled",0,0);recordMakerOutcome(makerDedupeBook,dedupeQuote,"unfilled",0,0);
   const makerCompactionBook=defaultPortfolio();makerCompactionBook.maker_quotes=[Object.assign({},makerQuote)];makerCompactionBook.maker_outcomes=[...profitableMakerBook.maker_outcomes];
   const compactedMakerBook=compactPortfolioForSync(makerCompactionBook);
+  const publicCompactedMakerBook=Object.assign({},compactedMakerBook,{maker_outcomes:compactedMakerBook.maker_outcomes.map(compactMakerOutcomeForPublic)});
+  const makerProfileBeforePublicCompaction=buildMakerProfile(compactedMakerBook),makerProfileAfterPublicCompaction=buildMakerProfile(publicCompactedMakerBook);
   const sharedMakerState=defaultState();sharedMakerState.agents.value.maker_outcomes=[profitableMakerBook.maker_outcomes[0]];
   sharedMakerState.agents.momentum.maker_outcomes=[profitableMakerBook.maker_outcomes[1]];
   const sharedMakerFixture=buildSharedMakerProfile(sharedMakerState);
@@ -7495,6 +7517,7 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
         &&shadowHedgeBook.positions.length===0&&shadowHedgeBook.maker_quotes.length===0&&shadowHedgeBook.maker_outcomes[0].status==="hedged-lock"&&shadowHedgeBook.maker_outcomes[0].pnl>0,
       outcomesAreDeduplicated:makerDedupeBook.maker_outcomes.length===1,
       makerLearningSurvivesCompaction:compactedMakerBook.maker_quotes.length===1&&compactedMakerBook.maker_outcomes.length===24,
+      publicMakerCompactionPreservesCalibration:JSON.stringify(makerProfileAfterPublicCompaction)===JSON.stringify(makerProfileBeforePublicCompaction),
       sharedLedgerCombinesAgentEvidence:sharedMakerFixture.global.current_events===2&&sharedMakerFixture.global.current_locked_events===2,
       agentsReceiveDisjointShadowMarkets:distributedA.size===2&&distributedB.size===2&&[...distributedA].every(id=>!distributedB.has(id)),
       noHypotheticalRewardCredited:makerStage.staged===1&&Math.abs(makerBook.cash-(10000+makerExpectedProfit))<=0.02,

scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs

@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ async function main() {
   const branch = process.env.RUNTIME_BRANCH || "runtime-state";
   const pathname = process.env.RUNTIME_STATE_PATH || "runtime/state.json";
   const arenaUrl = (process.env.ARENA_URL || "https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app").replace(/\/$/, "");
-  const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "117"));
+  const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "118"));
   await ensureRuntimeBranch(repository, branch);
   const prior = await readRuntimeFile(repository, branch, pathname);
   if (prior.snapshot) validateRuntimeSnapshot(prior.snapshot, 0, { allowIncomplete: true });

scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ const resolutionAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/resoluti
 const sportsContestAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/sports-contest-no-exploration-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
 const build = Number(index.match(/const BUILD_VERSION = (\d+);/)?.[1]);
 
-assert.equal(build, 117);
+assert.equal(build, 118);
 assert.deepEqual([...ALLOWED_RUNTIME_KEYS].sort(), ["pma_agents_v2", "pma_suggestions_v5"]);
 assert.match(index, /function collectPublicRuntimeItems\(\)/);
 assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object\.freeze\(\[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY\]\)/);
@@ -21,8 +21,12 @@ assert.match(index, /if\(!out\.trade_ready\)\{delete out\.clob_yes;delete out\.c
 assert.match(index, /function compactPublicSignalLedger\(ledger\)/);
 assert.match(index, /st\.signal_ledger=compactPublicSignalLedger\(st\.signal_ledger\)/);
 assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_SNAPSHOT_BUDGET_BYTES = 875000;/);
+assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_SIGNAL_OUTCOME_RESERVE = 96;/);
+assert.match(index, /history:80,suggestions:300/);
+assert.match(index, /function compactMakerOutcomeForPublic\(row\)/);
+assert.match(index, /publicMakerCompactionPreservesCalibration:/);
 assert.match(index, /function fitPublicRuntimeSnapshot\(snapshot\)/);
-assert.match(index, /ledger\.outcomes=low\?outcomes\.slice\(-low\):\[\]/);
+assert.match(index, /reservedCount=Math\.min\(PUBLIC_SIGNAL_OUTCOME_RESERVE,outcomes\.length\)/);
 assert.match(index, /return fitPublicRuntimeSnapshot\(snapshot\)/);
 assert.match(index, /publicCompactionPreservesForwardGrading:/);
 assert.match(index, /publicCompactionPreservesAgentCalibration:/);
@@ -40,7 +44,7 @@ assert.match(api, /Buffer\.from\(file\.content/);
 assert.match(api, /searchParams\.set\("runtime", `\$\{Date\.now\(\)\}/);
 assert.match(workflow, /cron: "2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57 \* \* \* \*"/);
 assert.match(workflow, /contents: write/);
-assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "117"/);
+assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"/);
 assert.match(workflow, /actions: write/);
 assert.match(workflow, /cancel-in-progress: false/);
 assert.match(workflow, /next=\$\(\( \(now \/ 300 \+ 1\) \* 300 \+ 15 \)\)/);

sw.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-117";
+const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-118";
 const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
 
 self.addEventListener("install", event => {