Reserve durable adaptive evidence capacity

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-21 23:43:13 -04:00
parent 0084654f15
commit e3086ed5fb
6 changed files with 59 additions and 28 deletions
+9 -5
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
Build 117 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
Build 118 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
@@ -32,6 +32,10 @@ contains only `pma_agents_v2` and `pma_suggestions_v5`, with suggestions capped
300 to keep cross-device loads small. The API preserves oldest-first pending
observations plus fee schedules, agent promotion scopes, and verified bundle
capacity from the bounded runtime instead of applying its older lossy compactor.
Public maker outcomes retain only calibration fields and action logs are bounded
to 80 entries per agent. If the 875 KB transport budget is reached, up to 96 of
the newest completed directional outcomes are reserved before the oldest
still-pending observations consume the remaining evidence space.
Paper accounts, passwords, email settings,
investment allocations, chat history, wallet information, and live-money
settings are explicitly excluded. While that fallback is active, ordinary
@@ -51,7 +55,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
Each Build 117 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
Each Build 118 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
pairs. Gamma's market-specific fee flag replaces the old blanket 0.5-cent fee
reserve for markets declared fee-free. The closest 60 structures are then
@@ -70,7 +74,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
failure.
Build 117 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
Build 118 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
@@ -86,7 +90,7 @@ directional evidence under fee policy 2 and keeps those lanes observation-only
until current independent 24-hour and 72-hour cohorts pass the existing
promotion gate.
Build 117 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
Build 118 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
@@ -206,7 +210,7 @@ evidence proves an edge.
Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
reliable confidence bound, so Build 117 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
reliable confidence bound, so Build 118 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
Strategy 62 instead uses the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
NO cohort as a bounded paper exploration lane. The corrected 5,000-market run