Harden Build 124 release and report secured profit

research/settlement-calibration-exact-fee-5000-audit.json

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+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-08-23T00:10:38.029Z",
+  "strategy": "exact-fee settlement calibration",
+  "requested_markets": 5000,
+  "resolved_markets": 5000,
+  "histories_with_data": 4807,
+  "failures": 0,
+  "observations": 7854,
+  "tested_rules": 1400,
+  "train_passed": 0,
+  "validation_selected": 0,
+  "holdout_passed": 0,
+  "methodology": {
+    "selection": "most recently closed eligible Yes/No markets",
+    "horizons_days": [1, 3, 7, 14, 30],
+    "history_fidelity_minutes": 1440,
+    "maximum_price_staleness_hours": 36,
+    "modeled_entry_slippage_cents": 1,
+    "exact_gamma_entry_fee_schedules": true,
+    "split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
+    "confidence": "event-clustered 95% lower bound",
+    "stability": "positive event mean in each of four chronological windows; at most one highest-entry market per underlying event or sports contest"
+  },
+  "partition_observations": {
+    "train": 4987,
+    "validation": 1419,
+    "holdout": 1448
+  },
+  "sports_no_3d_target": {
+    "train": {"events": 79, "event_mean": -0.00873, "lower_95": -0.11764},
+    "validation": {"events": 53, "event_mean": -0.44135, "lower_95": -0.62545},
+    "holdout": {"events": 34, "event_mean": -0.05382, "lower_95": -0.28345},
+    "stability_means": [0.00226, 0.01151, -0.36967, -0.18035],
+    "passes_holdout": false
+  },
+  "production_decision": "No static settlement-horizon, side, category, or price-band rule receives capital. Continue event-deduplicated zero-capital forward learning and require the existing promotion gates."
+}