Add bounded six-hour adaptive probation

scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs

@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ async function main() {
   const branch = process.env.RUNTIME_BRANCH || "runtime-state";
   const pathname = process.env.RUNTIME_STATE_PATH || "runtime/state.json";
   const arenaUrl = (process.env.ARENA_URL || "https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app").replace(/\/$/, "");
-  const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "118"));
+  const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "119"));
   await ensureRuntimeBranch(repository, branch);
   const prior = await readRuntimeFile(repository, branch, pathname);
   if (prior.snapshot) validateRuntimeSnapshot(prior.snapshot, 0, { allowIncomplete: true });

scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ const resolutionAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/resoluti
 const sportsContestAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/sports-contest-no-exploration-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
 const build = Number(index.match(/const BUILD_VERSION = (\d+);/)?.[1]);
 
-assert.equal(build, 118);
+assert.equal(build, 119);
 assert.deepEqual([...ALLOWED_RUNTIME_KEYS].sort(), ["pma_agents_v2", "pma_suggestions_v5"]);
 assert.match(index, /function collectPublicRuntimeItems\(\)/);
 assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object\.freeze\(\[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY\]\)/);
@@ -30,6 +30,13 @@ assert.match(index, /reservedCount=Math\.min\(PUBLIC_SIGNAL_OUTCOME_RESERVE,outc
 assert.match(index, /return fitPublicRuntimeSnapshot\(snapshot\)/);
 assert.match(index, /publicCompactionPreservesForwardGrading:/);
 assert.match(index, /publicCompactionPreservesAgentCalibration:/);
+assert.match(index, /const DIRECTIONAL_PROBATION_HORIZON_HOURS = 6;/);
+assert.match(index, /const DIRECTIONAL_PROBATION_MIN_EVENTS = 12;/);
+assert.match(index, /sixHourEvidenceStartsBoundedProbation:/);
+assert.match(index, /probationMetadataSurvivesOfflineCompaction:/);
+assert.match(index, /probationExitsAtExecutableSixHourPrice:/);
+assert.match(index, /claimedProbationEvents/);
+assert.match(api, /adaptive_probation: s\.adaptive_probation, probation_exit_hours: s\.probation_exit_hours/);
 assert.match(index, /function buildRuntimeFallbackMarketCache\(stored,state\)/);
 assert.match(index, /buildRuntimeFallbackMarketCache\(stored,st\)/);
 assert.match(index, /window\.PMA_AUTOMATION=Object\.freeze/);
@@ -44,7 +51,7 @@ assert.match(api, /Buffer\.from\(file\.content/);
 assert.match(api, /searchParams\.set\("runtime", `\$\{Date\.now\(\)\}/);
 assert.match(workflow, /cron: "2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57 \* \* \* \*"/);
 assert.match(workflow, /contents: write/);
-assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"/);
+assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "119"/);
 assert.match(workflow, /actions: write/);
 assert.match(workflow, /cancel-in-progress: false/);
 assert.match(workflow, /next=\$\(\( \(now \/ 300 \+ 1\) \* 300 \+ 15 \)\)/);

scripts/test-offline-runtime.mjs

@@ -17,5 +17,8 @@ assert.match(worker, /"\/cycle-worker\.js"/);
 assert.match(cycleWorker, /const INTERVAL_MS = 60000;/);
 assert.match(index, /requires_live:true/);
 assert.match(index, /runMode==="live"\|\|!next\.requires_live/);
+assert.match(index, /adaptive_probation:s\.adaptive_probation/);
+assert.match(index, /probation_exit_hours:s\.probation_exit_hours/);
+assert.match(index, /awaiting-probation-executable-exit/);
 
 console.log(`offline runtime verified for Build ${build}`);

scripts/test-server-state.mjs

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ assert.equal(normalizeDatabaseUrl("DATABASE_URL=postgresql://user:pass@example.t
   "postgresql://user:pass@example.test/db");
 assert.equal(cycleVersion("2026-08-21T20|v59"), 59);
 assert.equal(cycleVersion("2026-08-21T20:05|s62"), 62);
+assert.equal(cycleVersion("2026-08-21T20:05|s63"), 63);
 assert.equal(cycleVersion("2026-08-21T20:05"), 0);
 
 const originalDatabaseUrl = process.env.DATABASE_URL;
@@ -62,6 +63,15 @@ assert.equal(compactedShock.shock_move_3h, 0.12);
 assert.equal(compactedShock.shock_strategy_version, 3);
 assert.equal(compactedShock.pilot_prior.modeled_cost_cents, 2);
 
+const compactedProbation = compactSuggestion({
+  market_id: "probation:1", event_key: "event:probation", side: "YES", signal_type: "trend",
+  trade_ready: true, entry_candidate: true, adaptive_probation: true, probation_exit_hours: 6,
+  promoted_for_agents: ["momentum"], fee_schedule: { rate: 0.04, exponent: 1, takerOnly: true },
+});
+assert.equal(compactedProbation.adaptive_probation, true);
+assert.equal(compactedProbation.probation_exit_hours, 6);
+assert.deepEqual(compactedProbation.promoted_for_agents, ["momentum"]);
+
 const compactedState = compactAgentState({
   agents: { reversal: {
     positions: [], closed: [], history: [], snapshots: [],