Require forward proof for sports capital

.github/workflows/release-build-122.yml

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-name: Release Build 121 after Vercel quota reset
+name: Release Build 122 after Vercel quota reset
 
 on:
   schedule:
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ permissions:
   contents: write
 
 concurrency:
-  group: release-build-121
+  group: release-build-122
   cancel-in-progress: false
 
 jobs:
@@ -25,36 +25,36 @@ jobs:
         env:
           ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
         run: |
-          if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_121_preflight=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 121;'; then
+          if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_122_preflight=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 122;'; then
-            echo "Build 121 is already live."
+            echo "Build 122 is already live."
             exit 0
           fi
-          printf 'Build 121 deployment retry from run %s at %s\n' "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" "$(date -u +%FT%TZ)" > .build-121-release-trigger
+          printf 'Build 122 deployment retry from run %s at %s\n' "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" "$(date -u +%FT%TZ)" > .build-122-release-trigger
           git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
           git config user.email "41898282+github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"
-          git add .build-121-release-trigger
+          git add .build-122-release-trigger
-          git commit -m "Retry Build 121 production deployment"
+          git commit -m "Retry Build 122 production deployment"
           git push origin HEAD:main
-      - name: Wait for Build 121 in production
+      - name: Wait for Build 122 in production
         env:
           ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
         run: |
           for attempt in $(seq 1 40); do
-            if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_121_wait=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}-${attempt}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 121;'; then
+            if curl --fail --silent --show-error "${ARENA_URL}/?build_122_wait=${GITHUB_RUN_ID}-${attempt}" | grep -q 'const BUILD_VERSION = 122;'; then
-              echo "Build 121 is live."
+              echo "Build 122 is live."
               exit 0
             fi
             sleep 30
           done
-          echo "Build 121 did not become live; Build 118 remains the autonomous runtime target."
+          echo "Build 122 did not become live; Build 118 remains the autonomous runtime target."
           exit 1
-      - name: Activate the Build 121 autonomous runner
+      - name: Activate the Build 122 autonomous runner
         run: |
           git pull --ff-only origin main
-          perl -0pi -e 's/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"/EXPECTED_BUILD: "121"/' .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml
+          perl -0pi -e 's/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"/EXPECTED_BUILD: "122"/' .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml
-          perl -0pi -e 's/assert\.match\(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"\/\);/assert.match(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "121"\/);/' scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs
+          perl -0pi -e 's/assert\.match\(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "118"\/\);/assert.match(workflow, \/EXPECTED_BUILD: "122"\/);/' scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs
-          rm -f .build-121-release-trigger
+          rm -f .build-122-release-trigger
-          git rm .github/workflows/release-build-121.yml
+          git rm .github/workflows/release-build-122.yml
           git add .github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.yml scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs
-          git commit -m "Activate Build 121 autonomous cycles"
+          git commit -m "Activate Build 122 autonomous cycles"
           git push origin HEAD:main

README.md

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Offline cycles can apply calibration already earned from live observations, but
 the evidence ledger is read-only: cached prices cannot grade pending signals,
 expire horizons, or create new observations.
 
-Build 121 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
+Build 122 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
 It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
 even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
 workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
@@ -63,7 +63,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
 several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
 three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
 
-Each Build 121 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
+Each Build 122 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
 complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
 pairs, plus same-market YES/NO complements whose equal shares have a fixed
 $1 redemption value. Polymarket's documented complete-set merge converts equal
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
 executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
 failure.
 
-Build 121 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
+Build 122 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
 the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
 separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
 slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ Every probation position exits at the matching six-hour executable bid and keeps
 the 18% stop policy active. Normal directional sizing remains locked until the
 same cohort independently passes both the 24-hour and 72-hour promotion gates.
 
-Build 121 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
+Build 122 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
 capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
 several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
 only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
@@ -244,21 +244,23 @@ evidence proves an edge.
 
 Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
 Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
-reliable confidence bound, so Build 121 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
+reliable confidence bound, so Build 122 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
 
-Strategy 64 also uses the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
+Strategy 64 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
-NO cohort as a bounded paper exploration lane. The corrected 5,000-market run
+NO cohort as a zero-capital forward lane. The corrected 5,000-market run
 groups every prop with the same dated contest slug, anchors the decision to the
 published game start, and keeps only the highest-priced eligible NO contract per
 real contest. Its 76 contests had positive point estimates in all four
 chronological quarters; train and holdout 95% lower bounds were positive, but
 validation returned only +1.78% with a wide negative lower bound. This is not a
-proven edge. Favorite Backer therefore starts at 0.5% of equity per position,
+proven edge. A follow-up search tested 60 rules on the most recent 5,000 eligible
-opens at most one contest per cycle, caps the lane at 3%, and includes the
+resolved sports markets and again on the next older disjoint 5,000. No rule passed
-executable NO ask, exact Gamma taker fee, and 0.25-cent slippage. Twenty positive
+train, validation, and untouched holdout in both archives. Favorite Backer therefore
-independent settlements can raise size to 0.75%, 40 can raise it to 1%, and 15
+opens no sports capital initially and records at most one contest-level observation
-convincingly losing settlements or a 1% portfolio loss suspend capital. The same
+per cycle using the executable NO ask, exact Gamma taker fee, and 0.25-cent slippage.
-ledger persists offline, but stale cache policy and verified settlement rules
+Twenty independent forward settlements with a lower 90% confidence bound above
+0.5% can promote 0.75% positions; 40 stronger outcomes can raise size to 1%. The
+same ledger persists offline, but stale cache policy and verified settlement rules
 still apply.
 
 Run `npm run evaluate:settlement-calibration` for the stricter settlement-bias

index.html

@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 63 · durable evidence · build 120</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 64 · durable evidence · build 122</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
-  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 121 active:</b> Strategy 64 protects a dedicated evidence budget in every cloud snapshot, so pending observations and net-of-cost outcomes survive runner restarts instead of being displaced by repeated display text. Independently positive six-hour cohorts can enter bounded probation after at least 12 events and a lower confidence bound above 1%, using at most 0.5% per position and 1% per-agent total capital with a matching executable exit. Full directional sizing still requires positive 24-hour and 72-hour evidence, while one mature negative cohort can veto risk. Depth-and-fee-verified complete bundles must return at least 0.02% per locked day, are ranked by that capital efficiency, and are capped at 12% of Value Hunter equity per underlying event. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 122 active:</b> Strategy 64 protects a dedicated evidence budget in every cloud snapshot, so pending observations and net-of-cost outcomes survive runner restarts instead of being displaced by repeated display text. Independently positive six-hour cohorts can enter bounded probation after at least 12 events and a lower confidence bound above 1%, using at most 0.5% per position and 1% per-agent total capital with a matching executable exit. Full directional sizing still requires positive 24-hour and 72-hour evidence, while one mature negative cohort can veto risk. Sports contest NO research is now zero-capital until its forward confidence gate passes. Depth-and-fee-verified complete bundles must return at least 0.02% per locked day, are ranked by that capital efficiency, and are capped at 12% of Value Hunter equity per underlying event. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build 121 · Adaptive strategy 64 · Evidence-first bounded snapshots · Six-hour bounded probation with matched executable exits · Serialized self-chained five-minute slots with cron recovery · Oldest-first bounded learning transport · Restart-safe offline runtime · Exact-fee directional learning · Capital-efficient, event-capped verified bundles · Conservative intact-bundle accounting · Contest-deduplicated sports exploration · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Autonomous runtime 2 · Offline runtime 3 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
+    Build 122 · Adaptive strategy 64 · Evidence-first bounded snapshots · Six-hour bounded probation with matched executable exits · Serialized self-chained five-minute slots with cron recovery · Oldest-first bounded learning transport · Restart-safe offline runtime · Exact-fee directional learning · Capital-efficient, event-capped verified bundles · Conservative intact-bundle accounting · Contest-deduplicated sports shadow research · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Autonomous runtime 2 · Offline runtime 3 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
 const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const BUILD_VERSION = 121;
+const BUILD_VERSION = 122;
 const AGENT_LEARNING_VERSION = 3;
 const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 64;
 const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 3;
@@ -1562,7 +1562,7 @@ const SPORTS_FAVORITE_MIN_ENTRY=0.03;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_ENTRY=0.97;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_TARGET_LEAD_HOURS=72;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_LEAD_TOLERANCE_HOURS=12;
-const SPORTS_FAVORITE_PILOT_POSITION_PCT=0.005;
+const SPORTS_FAVORITE_PILOT_POSITION_PCT=0;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT=0.0075;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_POSITION_PCT=0.01;
 const SPORTS_FAVORITE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT=0.03;
@@ -1828,13 +1828,13 @@ function sportsFavoritePilotSuggestion(m){
     market_price:+marketPrice.toFixed(4),entry_price:+modeledEntry.toFixed(4),conviction,volume:m.volume,volume_24hr:m.volume_24hr,liquidity:m.liquidity,
     spread:m.spread,price_change_1h:m.price_change_1h,price_change_1d:m.price_change_1d,price_change_1w:m.price_change_1w,
     momentum_strength:0,signal_strength:0.60,signal_confidence:0.60,signal_type:"sports-contest-no-pilot",
-    trade_ready:true,entry_candidate:true,audited_observation_only:false,adaptive_promotion:true,watch_only:false,jump_risk:true,requires_live:false,
+    trade_ready:false,entry_candidate:false,audited_observation_only:true,adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:true,jump_risk:true,requires_live:false,
     game_start:m.game_start,hours_to_start:+lead.toFixed(2),days_to_resolution:m.days_to_resolution!=null?+m.days_to_resolution.toFixed(1):null,
     sports_contest_strategy_version:SPORTS_CONTEST_NO_STRATEGY_VERSION,
-    pilot_prior:{markets:5000,independent_contests:76,modeled_cost_cents:+(executionCost*100).toFixed(2),train_mean:0.23457,train_lower_95:0.057,
+    pilot_prior:{markets:10000,independent_contests:76,modeled_cost_cents:+(executionCost*100).toFixed(2),train_mean:0.23457,train_lower_95:0.057,
-      validation_mean:0.01776,validation_lower_95:-0.19809,holdout_mean:0.36683,holdout_lower_95:0.12251,strictly_promoted:false},
+      validation_mean:0.01776,validation_lower_95:-0.19809,holdout_mean:0.36683,holdout_lower_95:0.12251,strictly_promoted:false,disjoint_rule_search_passed:false},
-    drivers:["bounded paper exploration","one highest-priced NO per real contest","three days before published start","executable NO ask","exact Gamma entry fee","0.25c slippage"],
+    drivers:["zero-capital forward shadow","one highest-priced NO per real contest","three days before published start","executable NO ask","exact Gamma entry fee","0.25c slippage"],
-    rationale:`Bounded paper exploration: this is the highest-priced eligible NO contract found for ${eventKey.replace("sports:","")} ${lead.toFixed(1)}h before the published start. The modeled ${pct(modeledEntry)} entry includes the executable NO ask, ${(fee*100).toFixed(2)}c exact taker fee, and 0.25c slippage, ${(executionCost*100).toFixed(2)}c above midpoint. In the corrected 5,000-market audit, 76 independent contests were positive in all four chronological quarters; train and holdout lower bounds were positive, while validation returned +1.78% with a wide negative lower bound. This is not a proven edge, so it starts at 0.5%, allows one contest per cycle, and shuts down automatically if forward settlements reject it.`};
+    rationale:`Zero-capital forward learner: this is the highest-priced eligible NO contract found for ${eventKey.replace("sports:","")} ${lead.toFixed(1)}h before the published start. The modeled ${pct(modeledEntry)} entry includes the executable NO ask, ${(fee*100).toFixed(2)}c exact taker fee, and 0.25c slippage, ${(executionCost*100).toFixed(2)}c above midpoint. The original 5,000-market replay failed its validation confidence gate, and a separate grid search across the next older 5,000 eligible sports markets found no rule that passed train, validation, and untouched holdout. This lane therefore records no-capital observations until at least ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} independent forward settlements clear the promotion confidence gate.`};
 }
 function sportsContestNoSuggestions(markets){
   const grouped=new Map();
@@ -2899,7 +2899,7 @@ function sportsFavoritePilotProfile(p){
   const forwardPositive=events>=SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS&&lower>0.005;
   const maximumPositive=events>=SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_PROMOTION_EVENTS&&lower>0.01;
   const positionPct=demoted?0:(maximumPositive?SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_POSITION_PCT:(forwardPositive?SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT:SPORTS_FAVORITE_PILOT_POSITION_PCT));
-  return {state:demoted?"demoted":(maximumPositive?"max-promoted":(forwardPositive?"promoted":"exploration")),allowed:!demoted,promoted:forwardPositive,max_promoted:maximumPositive,demoted,events,
+  return {state:demoted?"demoted":(maximumPositive?"max-promoted":(forwardPositive?"promoted":"shadow")),allowed:forwardPositive&&!demoted,promoted:forwardPositive,max_promoted:maximumPositive,demoted,events,
     mean:+mean.toFixed(4),lower:+lower.toFixed(4),upper:+upper.toFixed(4),pnl:+pnl.toFixed(2),
     shadow_pnl_per_100:+shadowPnl.toFixed(2),active_shadows:(p&&p.sports_favorite_shadows||[])
       .filter(row=>Number(row.sports_contest_strategy_version||0)===SPORTS_CONTEST_NO_STRATEGY_VERSION).length,
@@ -2908,8 +2908,8 @@ function sportsFavoritePilotProfile(p){
 function applySportsFavoriteForwardPromotion(s,p){
   if(!s||(s.signal_type||"")!=="sports-contest-no-pilot")return s;
   const profile=sportsFavoritePilotProfile(p);
-  if(profile.demoted)return Object.assign({},s,{trade_ready:false,entry_candidate:false,watch_only:true,
+  if(!profile.allowed)return Object.assign({},s,{trade_ready:false,entry_candidate:false,audited_observation_only:true,adaptive_promotion:false,watch_only:true,
-    rationale:`Forward suspension: ${profile.events} independent contests produced a ${(profile.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(profile.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% upper confidence bound, so this lane is back to zero capital. ${s.rationale||""}`});
+    rationale:`Forward ${profile.demoted?"suspension":"shadow gate"}: ${profile.events} independent contests have not qualified capital, so this lane remains at zero size. ${s.rationale||""}`});
   return Object.assign({},s,{trade_ready:true,entry_candidate:true,audited_observation_only:false,adaptive_promotion:true,watch_only:false,
     rationale:`Adaptive ${profile.state} size ${(profile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% after ${profile.events} independent settled contest${profile.events===1?"":"s"}. ${s.rationale||""}`});
 }
@@ -4967,7 +4967,7 @@ function decisionSummary(p){
   }
   const makerStats=d.makerProfile&&d.makerProfile.global;
   const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
-  const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports contest NO learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent settled contests, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Current per-position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; 20 positive independent outcomes can raise it to 0.75%, 40 can raise it to 1%, and a rejected forward interval suspends capital.`:"";
+  const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports contest NO learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent settled contests, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Current per-position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital begins only after 20 independent outcomes clear the positive lower-bound gate, and 40 stronger outcomes can raise it to 1%.`:"";
   const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_QUALIFICATION_EVENTS} positive events can qualify 1% capital and ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} stronger events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%.`:"";
   const resolutionWeek=d.resolutionWeekNoPilot?` Corrected 4-day NO learner: ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.state}, ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.events} shared settled events, ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound. Position cap ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until 40 independent outcomes clear the forward confidence gate.`:"";
   return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${resolutionWeek}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
@@ -4976,8 +4976,8 @@ function renderAgentBrief(cfg,p,st){
   const root=$("agentBrief"); if(!root)return;
   const bw=bestAndWorst(p);
   const risk=cfg.aggressive?"Extreme risk":cfg.maxFrac>=0.055?"Active":cfg.maxFrac<=0.04?"Broad active":"Disciplined";
-  const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"One contest-level sports NO entry per cycle; 0.5% initial size, 3% lane cap, and automatic evidence-based promotion or suspension":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Zero-capital 4-day NO observations until 40 independent settlements promote 0.5% positions; plus zero-capital shock research`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
+  const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital contest-level sports NO observations until 20 independent settlements clear the forward confidence gate":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Zero-capital 4-day NO observations until 40 independent settlements promote 0.5% positions; plus zero-capital shock research`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
-  const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade zero-capital observations only when Polymarket closes the market; bounded capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Grade 4-day NO observations only at verified settlement; after promotion, capital positions also hold to settlement; shock observations exit at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours`
+  const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; any previously opened capital position retains the 18% stop and profit locks":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Grade 4-day NO observations only at verified settlement; after promotion, capital positions also hold to settlement; shock observations exit at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours`
     :`Exit after a confirmed reversal, a 12h unconfirmed fade after 48h, a trailing-profit retrace, or ${EXIT_STALE_DAYS}d stale while losing; Politics trends get 72h before ordinary signal exits`;
   const thesis=agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st);
   const quoteSummary=(p.maker_quotes||[]).slice(0,3).map(quote=>`${quote.shadow_only?"Shadow":"Capital"} · ${quote.question.slice(0,34)}${quote.question.length>34?"...":""}: YES ${pct(quote.yes_quote)} + NO ${pct(quote.no_quote)}${quote.yes_filled_at||quote.no_filled_at?" (one leg touched)":""}`).join("; ");
@@ -6659,13 +6659,13 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
       totalCapitalPct:DIRECTIONAL_PROBATION_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100,maxNewPerAgentCycle:DIRECTIONAL_PROBATION_MAX_NEW_PER_AGENT_CYCLE,
       eventDeduplicatedAcrossAgents:true,fullSizingStillRequiresHorizons:SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS},
     favoriteTrendReplayHardBlock:true,
-    sportsFavoritePilot:{name:"sports-contest-NO-exploration",strategyVersion:SPORTS_CONTEST_NO_STRATEGY_VERSION,entryBand:[SPORTS_FAVORITE_MIN_ENTRY,SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_ENTRY],targetLeadHours:SPORTS_FAVORITE_TARGET_LEAD_HOURS,
+    sportsFavoritePilot:{name:"sports-contest-NO-forward-shadow",strategyVersion:SPORTS_CONTEST_NO_STRATEGY_VERSION,entryBand:[SPORTS_FAVORITE_MIN_ENTRY,SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_ENTRY],targetLeadHours:SPORTS_FAVORITE_TARGET_LEAD_HOURS,
       leadToleranceHours:SPORTS_FAVORITE_LEAD_TOLERANCE_HOURS,pilotPositionPct:SPORTS_FAVORITE_PILOT_POSITION_PCT*100,
       promotedPositionPct:SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100,maximumPositionPct:SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_POSITION_PCT*100,
       totalCapitalPct:SPORTS_FAVORITE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100,shadowLimit:SPORTS_FAVORITE_SHADOW_LIMIT,
       verdictEvents:SPORTS_FAVORITE_VERDICT_EVENTS,promotionEvents:SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS,
       slippageBufferCents:SPORTS_FAVORITE_SLIPPAGE_BUFFER*100,maximumExecutionCostCents:SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_EXECUTION_COST*100,
-      maxNewPerCycle:SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_NEW_PER_CYCLE,capitalRequiresForwardPromotion:false,boundedExploration:true,
+      maxNewPerCycle:SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_NEW_PER_CYCLE,capitalRequiresForwardPromotion:true,boundedExploration:false,
       exactEntryFeesRequired:true,oneHighestNoPerContest:true,oldFavoriteRuleRetired:true},
     shockFadePilot:{strategyVersion:SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION,minimumMovePct:SHOCK_FADE_MIN_MOVE*100,signalWindowHours:SHOCK_FADE_SIGNAL_WINDOW_HOURS,
       exitHours:SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS,gradeToleranceHours:SHOCK_FADE_GRADE_TOLERANCE_HOURS,initialPositionPct:SHOCK_FADE_INITIAL_POSITION_PCT*100,
@@ -6685,7 +6685,7 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
       adopterAgentIds:[...RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS],backtestApproved:RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_BACKTEST_APPROVED,
       shadowLimit:RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_SHADOW_LIMIT,outcomeLimit:RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_OUTCOME_LIMIT,capitalRequiresForwardPromotion:true,
       oneDecisionPerEventAudit:true,disjointHoldoutRequired:true,fixedDateOnly:true,sportsExcluded:true,settlementOnlyExit:true,oneOwnerPerEvent:true,sharedForwardDemotion:true},
-    historicalPrior:"Exact-fee directional, settlement, shock, and maker audits found no robust broad capital rule. A corrected 5,000-market audit found a point-positive three-day Sports NO pattern across all chronological quarters and 76 independent contests, but validation uncertainty remained wide. It therefore runs only as bounded 0.5% paper exploration with exact entry fees, contest deduplication, and automatic forward promotion or suspension. Complete depth-and-fee-verified bundles remain the only proven-arbitrage entry lane."}),
+    historicalPrior:"Exact-fee directional, settlement, shock, and maker audits found no robust broad capital rule. A corrected 5,000-market audit found a point-positive three-day Sports NO pattern, but validation uncertainty remained wide; a disjoint older 5,000-market rule search also found no strict holdout winner. Sports NO therefore remains zero-capital shadow research with exact entry fees and contest deduplication until forward promotion. Complete depth-and-fee-verified bundles remain the only proven-arbitrage entry lane."}),
 });
 function runEngineSelfTest(){
   const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
@@ -7724,7 +7724,7 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       activeLegacyPositionBlocksNewEvidence:legacyResolutionClaimKeys.has("legacy-active-resolution"),
     },
     sportsFavoritePilot:{
-      identifiesBoundedContestNoPilot:Boolean(sportsPilot&&sportsPilot.trade_ready&&!sportsPilot.audited_observation_only
+      identifiesContestNoShadow:Boolean(sportsPilot&&!sportsPilot.trade_ready&&sportsPilot.audited_observation_only
         &&sportsPilot.quality==="sports-contest-no-pilot"&&sportsPilot.side==="NO"),
       derivesStableDatedContestKey:Boolean(sportsPilot&&sportsPilot.event_key==="sports:harbor-city-2026-08-24"),
       keepsOnlyHighestNoPerContest:contestCandidates.length===1&&contestCandidates[0].market_id==="contest-high-no",
@@ -7742,11 +7742,11 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
         &&sportsPilotBook.sports_favorite_outcomes[0].net_return>0,
       offlineSnapshotCannotInventSettlement:offlineSportsStayedPending,
       forwardLearnerSurvivesCompaction:compactedSportsBook.sports_favorite_shadows.length===1&&compactedSportsBook.sports_favorite_outcomes.length===1,
-      freshOfflineSnapshotKeepsBoundedEntry:freshOfflineSportsPilot.trade_ready&&freshOfflineSportsPilot.entry_candidate,
+      freshOfflineSnapshotKeepsShadowGate:!freshOfflineSportsPilot.trade_ready&&!freshOfflineSportsPilot.entry_candidate&&freshOfflineSportsPilot.watch_only,
       offlineTimingIsRechecked:!expiredOfflineSportsPilot.trade_ready&&!expiredOfflineSportsPilot.entry_candidate&&expiredOfflineSportsPilot.watch_only
         &&expiredOfflineSportsPilot.hours_to_start<SPORTS_FAVORITE_TARGET_LEAD_HOURS-SPORTS_FAVORITE_LEAD_TOLERANCE_HOURS,
       completedLossesKeepCapitalDisabled:losingSportsPilotProfile.demoted&&!losingSportsPilotProfile.allowed&&losingSportsPilotProfile.position_pct===0,
-      initialExplorationStartsHalfPercent:initialSportsPilotProfile.allowed&&!initialSportsPilotProfile.promoted
+      initialStateIsZeroCapitalShadow:!initialSportsPilotProfile.allowed&&!initialSportsPilotProfile.promoted&&initialSportsPilotProfile.state==="shadow"
         &&initialSportsPilotProfile.position_pct===SPORTS_FAVORITE_PILOT_POSITION_PCT,
       losingSuggestionReturnsToWatch:!unpromotedSportsSuggestion.trade_ready&&unpromotedSportsSuggestion.signal_type==="sports-contest-no-pilot",
       positiveConfidenceCanPromote:promotedSportsPilotProfile.promoted&&promotedSportsPilotProfile.allowed

research/sports-contest-no-disjoint-10000-audit.json

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-08-22T12:55:00.000Z",
+  "strategy": "sports-contest-no-disjoint-10000-followup",
+  "production_strategy": 64,
+  "status": "zero-capital-forward-shadow",
+  "methodology": {
+    "cohorts": [
+      "most recent 5000 eligible resolved sports markets",
+      "next older disjoint 5000 eligible resolved sports markets"
+    ],
+    "rules_tested_per_cohort": 60,
+    "lead_hours": [12, 18, 24, 30, 36],
+    "entry_bands": "grid from 0.55 through 0.95",
+    "modeled_cost_cents": 2,
+    "selection": "one highest-priced eligible favorite per contest",
+    "split": "60% train / 20% validation / 20% untouched holdout",
+    "strict_gate": "positive lower 90% confidence bound in train, validation, and untouched holdout"
+  },
+  "recent_5000": {
+    "train_rules_passing": 19,
+    "validation_rules_passing": 5,
+    "holdout_rules_passing": 0,
+    "closest_rule": {
+      "id": "lead30_0.55-0.75",
+      "train_mean": 0.12789,
+      "train_lower_90": 0.03068,
+      "validation_mean": 0.09454,
+      "validation_lower_90": 0.0101,
+      "holdout_mean": 0.09368,
+      "holdout_lower_90": -0.00833
+    }
+  },
+  "older_disjoint_5000": {
+    "train_rules_passing": 5,
+    "validation_rules_passing": 0,
+    "holdout_rules_passing": 0,
+    "closest_rule": {
+      "id": "lead30_0.55-0.75",
+      "train_mean": 0.01857,
+      "train_lower_90": -0.0588,
+      "validation_mean": 0.05567,
+      "validation_lower_90": -0.04222,
+      "holdout_mean": 0.08661,
+      "holdout_lower_90": -0.01431
+    },
+    "current_24_hour_broad_rule_segment_means": [-0.039, -0.026, -0.0097]
+  },
+  "decision": {
+    "capital_enabled": false,
+    "initial_position_pct": 0,
+    "promotion_events": 20,
+    "promotion_lower_90_minimum": 0.005,
+    "promoted_position_pct": 0.75,
+    "maximum_promotion_events": 40,
+    "maximum_position_pct": 1,
+    "reason": "No rule survived both disjoint archives with a positive lower confidence bound in every chronological partition. Recent positive point estimates are insufficient evidence for capital."
+  }
+}

scripts/evaluate-sports-favorites.mjs

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 const GAMMA = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com";
 const CLOB = "https://clob.polymarket.com";
 const MARKET_LIMIT = Math.max(500, Math.min(5000, Number(process.env.SPORTS_FAVORITE_MARKETS || 3000)));
+const MARKET_SKIP = Math.max(0, Math.min(20000, Number(process.env.SPORTS_FAVORITE_SKIP || 0)));
 const CONCURRENCY = Math.max(1, Math.min(12, Number(process.env.SPORTS_FAVORITE_CONCURRENCY || 10)));
 const COST = Math.max(0, Math.min(0.10, Number(process.env.SPORTS_FAVORITE_COST_CENTS || 5) / 100));
 const MAX_STALENESS_HOURS = Math.max(1, Math.min(12, Number(process.env.SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_STALENESS_HOURS || 3)));
@@ -59,8 +60,9 @@ function gameStart(raw) {
   return timestamp(raw.gameStartTime || raw.eventStartTime || event.startTime || event.eventDate);
 }
 
-async function fetchMarkets(limit) {
+async function fetchMarkets(limit, skip = 0) {
   const markets = [], seen = new Set();
+  let eligibleSeen = 0;
   let cursor = "";
   while (markets.length < limit) {
     const params = new URLSearchParams({ closed: "true", order: "closedTime", ascending: "false", limit: "100", include_tag: "true" });
@@ -75,6 +77,7 @@ async function fetchMarkets(limit) {
       if (!id || seen.has(id) || labels[0] !== "yes" || labels[1] !== "no" || tokens.length !== 2 || finalYes == null
         || !startsAt || !closedAt || !sportsMarket(raw)) continue;
       seen.add(id);
+      if (eligibleSeen++ < skip) continue;
       markets.push({ id, question: raw.question || "", eventKey: String(raw.events?.[0]?.id || id), event: raw.events?.[0]?.title || "",
         tokenId: tokens[0], finalYes, startsAt, closedAt, marketType: String(raw.sportsMarketType || "unknown") });
       if (markets.length >= limit) break;
@@ -126,7 +129,7 @@ for (const leadHours of [12, 18, 24, 30, 36]) {
   }
 }
 
-const markets = await fetchMarkets(MARKET_LIMIT);
+const markets = await fetchMarkets(MARKET_LIMIT, MARKET_SKIP);
 const histories = await mapLimit(markets, CONCURRENCY, async (market) => {
   const data = await fetchJson(`${CLOB}/prices-history?market=${encodeURIComponent(market.tokenId)}&interval=max&fidelity=60`);
   const points = (data.history || []).map((point) => ({ t: Number(point.t), p: Number(point.p) }))
@@ -177,7 +180,7 @@ const closest = evaluated.filter((row) => row.train.events >= 25 && row.validati
   .sort((a, b) => Math.min(b.train.lower, b.validation.lower, b.holdout.lower)
     - Math.min(a.train.lower, a.validation.lower, a.holdout.lower));
 
-console.log(JSON.stringify({ generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(), requestedMarkets: MARKET_LIMIT, sportsMarkets: markets.length,
+console.log(JSON.stringify({ generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(), requestedMarkets: MARKET_LIMIT, skippedEligibleMarkets: MARKET_SKIP, sportsMarkets: markets.length,
   historiesWithData: usable.length, failures: histories.filter((row) => row?.error).length,
   methodology: { selection: "most recently closed eligible Yes/No sports markets", decisionAnchor: "published game start",
     historyFidelityMinutes: 60, maxPriceStalenessHours: MAX_STALENESS_HOURS, modeledCostCents: COST * 100,

scripts/test-autonomous-runtime.mjs

@@ -8,10 +8,13 @@ const workflow = fs.readFileSync(new URL("../.github/workflows/autonomous-cycle.
 const runner = fs.readFileSync(new URL("./run-autonomous-cycle.mjs", import.meta.url), "utf8");
 const resolutionAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/resolution-week-no-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
 const sportsContestAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/sports-contest-no-exploration-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
+const sportsDisjointAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/sports-contest-no-disjoint-10000-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
 const adaptiveAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/adaptive-strategy-64-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
+const sportsEvaluator = fs.readFileSync(new URL("./evaluate-sports-favorites.mjs", import.meta.url), "utf8");
 const build = Number(index.match(/const BUILD_VERSION = (\d+);/)?.[1]);
 
-assert.equal(build, 121);
+assert.equal(build, 122);
+assert.match(index, /Adaptive strategy 64 · durable evidence · build 122/);
 assert.deepEqual([...ALLOWED_RUNTIME_KEYS].sort(), ["pma_agents_v2", "pma_suggestions_v5"]);
 assert.match(index, /function collectPublicRuntimeItems\(\)/);
 assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object\.freeze\(\[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY\]\)/);
@@ -126,6 +129,15 @@ assert.ok(sportsContestAudit.corrected_5000_market_result.validation.lower_95 <
 assert.equal(sportsContestAudit.production_constraints.initial_position_pct, 0.5);
 assert.equal(sportsContestAudit.production_constraints.total_lane_cap_pct, 3);
 assert.equal(sportsContestAudit.production_constraints.exact_entry_fee_required, true);
+assert.equal(sportsDisjointAudit.status, "zero-capital-forward-shadow");
+assert.equal(sportsDisjointAudit.recent_5000.holdout_rules_passing, 0);
+assert.equal(sportsDisjointAudit.older_disjoint_5000.validation_rules_passing, 0);
+assert.ok(sportsDisjointAudit.recent_5000.closest_rule.holdout_lower_90 < 0);
+assert.ok(sportsDisjointAudit.older_disjoint_5000.closest_rule.holdout_lower_90 < 0);
+assert.equal(sportsDisjointAudit.decision.capital_enabled, false);
+assert.equal(sportsDisjointAudit.decision.initial_position_pct, 0);
+assert.match(sportsEvaluator, /const MARKET_SKIP =/);
+assert.match(sportsEvaluator, /fetchMarkets\(MARKET_LIMIT, MARKET_SKIP\)/);
 assert.equal(adaptiveAudit.strategy, 64);
 assert.equal(adaptiveAudit.fetched_markets, 500);
 assert.deepEqual(adaptiveAudit.probation_rule_ids, []);
@@ -134,6 +146,9 @@ assert.ok(adaptiveAudit.horizons.every((row) => row.validation_selected === 0 &&
 assert.match(index, /function sportsContestKey\(m\)/);
 assert.match(index, /function sportsContestNoSuggestions\(markets\)/);
 assert.match(index, /const SPORTS_FAVORITE_MAX_NEW_PER_CYCLE=1;/);
+assert.match(index, /const SPORTS_FAVORITE_PILOT_POSITION_PCT=0;/);
+assert.match(index, /capitalRequiresForwardPromotion:true,boundedExploration:false/);
+assert.match(index, /initialStateIsZeroCapitalShadow:/);
 assert.match(index, /function compactDecisionForPublic\(decision\)/);
 assert.match(index, /delete out\.learning\.buckets/);
 

sw.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-121";
+const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-122";
 const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
 
 self.addEventListener("install", event => {