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Require durable evidence before adaptive trades

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Theodore Song
2026-08-19 14:13:29 -04:00
parent b9d8d66264
commit c983c1e99f
8 changed files with 320 additions and 110 deletions
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scripts/evaluate-neg-risk.mjs
+3 -1
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@@ -48,11 +48,13 @@ function evaluateEvent(event) {
const allMarkets = Array.isArray(event.markets) ? event.markets : [];
if (allMarkets.length < 2 || allMarkets.some((market) => market.closed || market.active === false || market.acceptingOrders === false)) return null;
const legs = allMarkets.map((market) => {
const outcomes = parseJson(market.outcomes).map((outcome) => String(outcome).trim().toLowerCase());
const prices = parseJson(market.outcomePrices).map(number);
return { id: String(market.id || ""), question: market.question || "", yes: prices[0],
binaryLabels: outcomes[0] === "yes" && outcomes[1] === "no",
bid: number(market.bestBid), ask: number(market.bestAsk), liquidity: number(market.liquidityNum || market.liquidity) || 0 };
});
if (legs.some((leg) => !leg.id || leg.yes == null || leg.bid == null || leg.ask == null
if (legs.some((leg) => !leg.binaryLabels || !leg.id || leg.yes == null || leg.bid == null || leg.ask == null
|| leg.bid < 0 || leg.ask > 1 || leg.ask < leg.bid || leg.liquidity < MIN_LIQUIDITY)) return null;
const count = legs.length, costPerLeg = COST_CENTS / 100;
const yesCost = legs.reduce((sum, leg) => sum + leg.ask, 0) + count * costPerLeg;