Verify accounting and rank current strategy

This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
2026-08-18 13:05:10 -04:00
parent 97186482df
commit c7abdf8d4d
3 changed files with 57 additions and 20 deletions
+7 -3
View File
@@ -15,11 +15,15 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
Vercel Blob. Build 53 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
Vercel Blob. Build 55 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
expires after 24 hours.
Build 55 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 49 began.
Historical replay equity remains visible for context, but it no longer makes an
agent look like the current leader when the live adaptive strategy is losing.
Each agent learns bounded weights from its own v34+ trade outcomes across signal
type, setup quality, category, side, entry-price band, and time to resolution.
The learner shrinks small samples toward neutral, caps sizing changes to
@@ -99,7 +103,7 @@ feature views before repeatable positive evidence can increase size or repeatabl
negative evidence can block a new entry. Mixed evidence stays close to neutral
instead of being mistaken for an edge.
Build 53 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
Build 55 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
under 90 minutes old may continue paper execution. Older snapshots remain usable
for valuation and chart snapshots for up to 24 hours, but cannot trigger entries,
stop-losses, gain-stops, risk rebalances, settlements, or policy exits. Network
@@ -112,7 +116,7 @@ adaptive baselines, pending signal grades, and trade evidence remain in one stra
lineage until the actual entry, sizing, or exit logic changes. Legacy build 40 and 41
records are migrated into the same strategy lineage without losing evidence.
Build 53 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
Build 55 independently refreshes markets for matured pending signals that have
left the current top-500 activity scan. Unavailable markets remain queued for a
bounded retry window. This prevents activity-rank survivorship from deciding
which wins and losses reach the adaptive calibration ledger.