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Convert verified complete NO bundles immediately
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@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Offline cycles can apply calibration already earned from live observations, but
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the evidence ledger is read-only: cached prices cannot grade pending signals,
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expire horizons, or create new observations.
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Build 123 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
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Build 124 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
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It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
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even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
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workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
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@@ -63,12 +63,19 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
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several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
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three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
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Each Build 123 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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Each Build 124 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
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pairs, plus same-market YES/NO complements whose equal shares have a fixed
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$1 redemption value. Polymarket's documented complete-set merge converts equal
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YES and NO amounts directly back into collateral, so a verified binary complement
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is merged and realized in the same paper cycle instead of waiting for resolution.
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The official negative-risk adapter also converts a complete set of NO tokens into
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`n - 1` units of collateral, less the event's `negRiskFeeBips`. Strategy 65 treats
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that as a separate immediate path: every leg must expose one consistent
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`negRiskMarketID` and conversion fee, all asks and CLOB fee schedules must verify,
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and the post-conversion proceeds must remain profitable. Missing or inconsistent
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adapter metadata cannot produce paper P&L. Complete YES sets and logical dominance
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pairs are not convertible and continue to use settlement or verified live-bid exits.
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Gasless CTF operations include merge transactions; see
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[Positions & Tokens](https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/positions-tokens) and
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[Gasless Transactions](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/gasless).
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@@ -83,7 +90,7 @@ paper order up to a $400 verified-notional ceiling. The scanner applies each mar
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consumed ask level and checks the exact CLOB condition metadata for a matching
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fee curve or fee-free state. Any opened position is capped to the exact equal-unit size
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of the largest fill that stays profitable and passes this depth test; portfolio
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cash, reserve, and 4% limits can reduce it further. Strategy 64 ranks verified
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cash, reserve, and 4% limits can reduce it further. Strategy 65 ranks verified
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structures by net return per expected locked day before raw edge, and caps active
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cost from one underlying event at 12% of Value Hunter equity. This prevents
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several related threshold pairs from monopolizing the non-directional book. New bundles must
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@@ -103,7 +110,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
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executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
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failure.
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Build 123 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
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Build 124 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
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the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
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separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
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slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
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@@ -114,7 +121,7 @@ available at reduced weight. The exact-fee replay covered the top 1,000
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active markets and 208 independent events: broad trends, reversals, and
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favorite trends all had 90% upper bounds below zero at 12 hours. A separate
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3,000-recently-closed-market study tested 297 one-decision-per-event settlement
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rules and found zero robust positive rule. Strategy 64 retains online
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rules and found zero robust positive rule. Strategy 65 retains online
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directional evidence under fee policy 2. A separate probation gate can now use
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capital after at least 12 current-policy independent events produce a net-of-cost
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six-hour lower confidence bound above 1% for every required cohort feature.
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@@ -128,7 +135,7 @@ Every probation position exits at the matching six-hour executable bid and keeps
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the 18% stop policy active. Normal directional sizing remains locked until the
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same cohort independently passes both the 24-hour and 72-hour promotion gates.
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Build 123 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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Build 124 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
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several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
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only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
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@@ -248,9 +255,9 @@ evidence proves an edge.
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Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
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Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
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reliable confidence bound, so Build 123 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
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reliable confidence bound, so Build 124 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
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Strategy 64 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
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Strategy 65 also tracks the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
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NO cohort as a zero-capital forward lane. The corrected 5,000-market run
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groups every prop with the same dated contest slug, anchors the decision to the
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published game start, and keeps only the highest-priced eligible NO contract per
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@@ -378,7 +385,7 @@ Strategy 54 gives previously opened Politics trend positions that 72-hour observ
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ordinary signal exits. Stops, profit locks, settlement handling, and risk-budget
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reductions remain immediate.
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Strategy 64 retains exact Gamma entry and exit taker fees plus a half-cent
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Strategy 65 retains exact Gamma entry and exit taker fees plus a half-cent
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slippage allowance when grading each live walk-forward signal. Confidence uses the largest independent matching bucket,
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not the sum of five overlapping feature buckets, and evidence from older engine
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versions is down-weighted. This prevents a handful of duplicated observations
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