mirror of
https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst.git
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Bound fee-policy migration snapshot
This commit is contained in:
Theodore Song
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ jobs:
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- run: node scripts/run-autonomous-cycle.mjs
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env:
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ARENA_URL: https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app
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EXPECTED_BUILD: "104"
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EXPECTED_BUILD: "105"
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RUNTIME_BRANCH: runtime-state
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RUNTIME_STATE_PATH: runtime/state.json
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GITHUB_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
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allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
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expires after 24 hours.
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Build 104 runs the headless GitHub Actions runtime every five minutes, continues
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Build 105 runs the headless GitHub Actions runtime every five minutes, continues
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from the previous agent snapshot,
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and runs the next due paper cycle even when no browser is open. It writes a
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sanitized snapshot to the `runtime-state` branch and `/api/state` uses that as a
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@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
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several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
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three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
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Each Build 104 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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Each Build 105 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
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pairs. Gamma's market-specific fee flag replaces the old blanket 0.5-cent fee
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reserve for markets declared fee-free. The closest 60 structures are then
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@@ -57,12 +57,14 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
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executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
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failure.
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Build 104 also replaces the directional learner's blanket half-cent cost with
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Build 105 also replaces the directional learner's blanket half-cent cost with
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the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
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separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
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slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
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fee reserve and cannot look artificially profitable. Fee metadata survives
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cloud compaction and offline caching. The exact-fee replay covered the top 1,000
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cloud compaction and offline caching. Unfinished observations from the prior fee
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policy are replaced immediately, while completed historical outcomes remain
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available at reduced weight. The exact-fee replay covered the top 1,000
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active markets and 208 independent events: broad trends, reversals, and
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favorite trends all had 90% upper bounds below zero at 12 hours. A separate
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3,000-recently-closed-market study tested 297 one-decision-per-event settlement
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@@ -71,7 +73,7 @@ directional evidence under fee policy 2 and keeps those lanes observation-only
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until current independent 24-hour and 72-hour cohorts pass the existing
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promotion gate.
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Build 104 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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Build 105 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
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several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
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only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
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+7
-5
@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
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<nav class="topnav">
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<div class="brand">
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<div class="logo">🏆</div>
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<div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 61 · exact-fee learning · build 104</div></div>
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<div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 61 · exact-fee learning · build 105</div></div>
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</div>
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<div class="tabs" id="tabs">
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<button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
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@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
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<div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
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<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
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</div>
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<div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 104 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every five minutes while every user device is closed. Each cycle scans the 1,000 most-active events for complete negative-risk and same-event dominance bundles, then checks the closest 60 against live CLOB depth for at least a $50 equal-unit order. Directional research now carries Gamma fee schedules through cloud and offline caches and grades each future checkpoint with exact entry and exit taker fees plus a half-cent slippage allowance. The latest disjoint audits rejected broad directional, shock, and near-settlement rules, so they remain zero-capital until independent forward cohorts prove an edge. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
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<div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 105 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every five minutes while every user device is closed. Each cycle scans the 1,000 most-active events for complete negative-risk and same-event dominance bundles, then checks the closest 60 against live CLOB depth for at least a $50 equal-unit order. Directional research now carries Gamma fee schedules through cloud and offline caches and grades each future checkpoint with exact entry and exit taker fees plus a half-cent slippage allowance. The latest disjoint audits rejected broad directional, shock, and near-settlement rules, so they remain zero-capital until independent forward cohorts prove an edge. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
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<!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
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<section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
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@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
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</section>
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<footer>
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Build 104 · Adaptive strategy 61 · Five-minute autonomous scans · Exact-fee directional learning · Live depth, fee, and size-verified bundle audit · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Zero capital before independent positive evidence · Autonomous runtime 1 · Offline runtime 2 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
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Build 105 · Adaptive strategy 61 · Five-minute autonomous scans · Exact-fee directional learning · Live depth, fee, and size-verified bundle audit · Corrected one-decision-per-event settlement audit · Zero capital before independent positive evidence · Autonomous runtime 1 · Offline runtime 2 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
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<a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
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</footer>
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</div>
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@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
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const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
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const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
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const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
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const BUILD_VERSION = 104;
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const BUILD_VERSION = 105;
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const AGENT_LEARNING_VERSION = 3;
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const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 61;
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const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 3;
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@@ -2259,6 +2259,7 @@ function signalDueHorizon(item,ageHours){
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function pendingSignalMarketIds(ledger,knownIds=new Set(),now=Date.now()){
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const rows=((ledger&&ledger.pending)||[]).map(item=>({item,started:new Date(item.observed_at||0).getTime()}))
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.filter(row=>Number.isFinite(row.started))
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.filter(row=>!Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(row.item||{},"signal_policy_version")||currentSignalPolicy(row.item))
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.filter(row=>signalDueHorizon(row.item,(now-row.started)/3600000)!=null)
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.sort((a,b)=>a.started-b.started);
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const ids=[],seen=new Set();
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@@ -2275,6 +2276,7 @@ function updateSignalLedger(st,markets,suggestions){
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ledger.pending=Array.isArray(ledger.pending)?ledger.pending:[];ledger.outcomes=Array.isArray(ledger.outcomes)?ledger.outcomes:[];
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const now=Date.now(),marketMap=Object.fromEntries((markets||[]).map(m=>[String(m.id),m])),stillPending=[];
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for(const item of ledger.pending){
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if(Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(item||{},"signal_policy_version")&&!currentSignalPolicy(item))continue;
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const started=new Date(item.observed_at||0).getTime(),ageHours=Number.isFinite(started)?(now-started)/3600000:Infinity;
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const graded=signalGradedHorizons(item),dueHorizon=signalDueHorizon(item,ageHours);
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const fresh=marketMap[String(item.market_id)],future=signalPrice(fresh,item.side);
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@@ -6983,7 +6985,7 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
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&&observationLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending[0].trade_ready_at_observation===false
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&&observationLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending[0].signal_policy_version===DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_POLICY_VERSION,
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deduplicatesPendingMarketSide:observationLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending.length===1,
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priorFeePolicyDoesNotDelayReplacement:priorPolicyReplacementState.signal_ledger.pending.length===2
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priorFeePolicyDoesNotDelayReplacement:priorPolicyReplacementState.signal_ledger.pending.length===1
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&&priorPolicyReplacementState.signal_ledger.pending.some(item=>item.signal_policy_version===DIRECTIONAL_SIGNAL_POLICY_VERSION),
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oldestPendingSignalsSurviveCapacity:queueLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending.length===SIGNAL_LEDGER_PENDING_LIMIT
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&&queueLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending.some(x=>x.market_id==="old-market-0")
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@@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ async function main() {
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const branch = process.env.RUNTIME_BRANCH || "runtime-state";
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const pathname = process.env.RUNTIME_STATE_PATH || "runtime/state.json";
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const arenaUrl = (process.env.ARENA_URL || "https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app").replace(/\/$/, "");
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const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "104"));
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const expectedBuild = Number(required("EXPECTED_BUILD", "105"));
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await ensureRuntimeBranch(repository, branch);
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const prior = await readRuntimeFile(repository, branch, pathname);
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if (prior.snapshot) validateRuntimeSnapshot(prior.snapshot, 0, { allowIncomplete: true });
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@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ const runner = fs.readFileSync(new URL("./run-autonomous-cycle.mjs", import.meta
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const resolutionAudit = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(new URL("../research/resolution-week-no-audit.json", import.meta.url), "utf8"));
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const build = Number(index.match(/const BUILD_VERSION = (\d+);/)?.[1]);
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assert.equal(build, 104);
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assert.equal(build, 105);
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assert.deepEqual([...ALLOWED_RUNTIME_KEYS].sort(), ["pma_agents_v2", "pma_suggestions_v5"]);
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assert.match(index, /function collectPublicRuntimeItems\(\)/);
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assert.match(index, /const PUBLIC_RUNTIME_KEYS=Object\.freeze\(\[AGENTS_KEY,SUG_KEY\]\)/);
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@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ assert.match(api, /Buffer\.from\(file\.content/);
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assert.match(api, /searchParams\.set\("runtime", `\$\{Date\.now\(\)\}/);
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assert.match(workflow, /cron: "2,7,12,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57 \* \* \* \*"/);
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assert.match(workflow, /contents: write/);
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assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "104"/);
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assert.match(workflow, /EXPECTED_BUILD: "105"/);
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assert.match(index, /saveSuggestions\(sugs,markets\.length,analysisMarkets\.length,bundleAudit\)/);
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assert.match(index, /const NEG_RISK_EVENT_SCAN_LIMIT=1000;/);
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assert.match(index, /bundleOpportunityTelemetry:true/);
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