Retire stale holdings and add early loss veto

README.md

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
 
 The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
 run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
-Vercel Blob. Build 68 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
+Vercel Blob. Build 69 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
 market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
 allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
 expires after 24 hours.
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ team names, Over/Under, or another pair are rejected instead of being silently
 reinterpreted as Yes/No. The same semantic check applies to complete event
 bundles and the offline evaluators.
 
-Build 68 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 56 began.
+Build 69 ranks the competition by each agent's return since Strategy 56 began.
 Historical replay equity remains visible for context, but it no longer makes an
 agent look like the current leader when the live adaptive strategy is losing.
 
@@ -46,13 +46,24 @@ The two-agent overlap guard counts only positions worth at least 1.25% of an
 agent's equity, so tiny profit-lock runners do not block a new material trade.
 
 A separate walk-forward ledger records every confirmed signal before its future
-price is known, grades it in separate 24-hour and 72-hour windows, and combines
+price is known, grades it at 6 hours for early loss vetoes and in separate
+24-hour and 72-hour promotion windows, and combines
 that broad market calibration with each agent's personal outcomes. This expands
 the learning sample without forcing observation-only signals into portfolios or
 backfilling future information into old decisions. Missed windows expire instead
 of borrowing an arbitrarily later price. The 24-hour checkpoint matches the
 minimum ordinary holding policy while the 72-hour checkpoint tests persistence;
-stops and profit locks still act immediately from fresh prices.
+stops and profit locks still act immediately from fresh prices. Positive
+six-hour evidence cannot promote capital, while a mature negative six-hour
+cohort can demote it.
+
+The Build 69 re-audit loaded all 500 requested histories with no failures. The
+six-hour family lost 1.27% net on average across 106 independent events, with
+its full 90% interval below zero; no tested rule was robustly positive at 6,
+12, 24, or 72 hours. Build 69 therefore uses six hours only to stop bad regimes
+sooner. It also closes every stale pre-Strategy-56 directional holding at the
+next fresh mark, including legacy records missing a signal label, while leaving
+complete arbitrage bundles and paired maker inventory under their own accounting.
 
 The initial seven-day chart seed is an approximate replay, not a live return.
 It uses only prices available on each simulated date, computes daily and weekly
@@ -301,12 +312,13 @@ Strategy 54 clusters live walk-forward observations by Polymarket event and chec
 calculating confidence. Multiple six-hour snapshots and correlated outcome
 markets from the same event are averaged into one effective outcome, so one
 election or tournament cannot promote or demote an entire feature cohort.
-Promotion requires agreement across two feature views at both horizons, with
+Promotion requires agreement across two feature views at both 24-hour and
-current-strategy support preventing old lineage data from authorizing a new rule.
+72-hour promotion horizons, while a mature negative six-hour view may veto risk.
+Current-strategy support prevents old lineage data from authorizing a new rule.
 
 The pending signal ledger keeps only one ungraded observation for each market and
 side. When its bounded queue is full, it preserves the oldest evidence through
-the 24-hour and 72-hour grades and admits new signals in ranked order as space opens.
+the 6-hour, 24-hour, and 72-hour grades and admits new signals in ranked order as space opens.
 This prevents frequent cycles from evicting every signal shortly before maturity.
 
 Paper accounts created with a password are also saved through the backend, so a

index.html

@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 56 · maker research 2 · build 68</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive strategy 56 · maker research 2 · build 69</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
-  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 68 active:</b> all ten agents now split distinct one-hour reward-book shadow quotes and learn from one shared, event-deduplicated maker ledger. The shorter window passed a conservative path screen in 2 of 24 current candidates, while the three-hour rule passed none; actual paired touches and positive confidence bounds are still required before paper capital is enabled. Offline snapshots can value positions but cannot invent fills. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build 69 active:</b> the next fresh cycle retires every stale pre-Strategy-56 directional holding, including old positions with missing signal labels, while preserving complete bundles and maker inventory. A 500-market audit found six-hour directional signals robustly negative, so six hours is now an early demotion checkpoint; positive promotion still requires independent 24-hour and 72-hour evidence. Offline snapshots can value positions but cannot invent fills. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build 68 · Adaptive strategy 56 · Maker research 2 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
+    Build 69 · Adaptive strategy 56 · Maker research 2 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
 const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const BUILD_VERSION = 68;
+const BUILD_VERSION = 69;
 const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 56;
 const MAKER_STRATEGY_VERSION = 2;
 const PREVIOUS_STRATEGY_VERSION = 55;
@@ -924,7 +924,9 @@ const OFFLINE_ENTRY_MAX_AGE_MS = 90*60*1000;
 const OFFLINE_CACHE_MAX_AGE_MS = 24*60*60*1000;
 const NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS = 8000;
 const PRICE_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS = 4000;
-const SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS = Object.freeze([24,72]);
+const SIGNAL_EARLY_RISK_HORIZONS = Object.freeze([6]);
+const SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS = Object.freeze([24,72]);
+const SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS = Object.freeze([...SIGNAL_EARLY_RISK_HORIZONS,...SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS]);
 const SIGNAL_EVAL_TOLERANCE_HOURS = 6;
 const SIGNAL_EVAL_HOURS = SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS[0];
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_PENDING_LIMIT = 300;
@@ -1914,14 +1916,16 @@ function calibratedOpportunity(s,calibration){
   const rows=features.map(k=>buckets[k]).filter(Boolean);
   const independentWeight=rows.length?Math.max(...rows.map(r=>Number(r.weight||0))):0;
   const score=rows.length?rows.reduce((sum,r)=>sum+r.score,0)/rows.length:0,confidence=independentWeight/(independentWeight+20);
-  const horizonRows=features.map(feature=>({feature,rows:SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS.map(horizon=>buckets[`${feature}|horizon:${horizon}`])}));
+  const horizonRows=features.map(feature=>({feature,
+    promotionRows:SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS.map(horizon=>buckets[`${feature}|horizon:${horizon}`]),
+    riskRows:SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS.map(horizon=>buckets[`${feature}|horizon:${horizon}`])}));
   const rowIsCurrent=(row)=>Number(row&&row.weight||0)>=8&&Number(row&&row.current_weight||0)>=5;
-  const positiveRows=horizonRows.filter(group=>group.rows.every(row=>rowIsCurrent(row)&&Number(row.lower_bound||0)>0.003));
+  const positiveRows=horizonRows.filter(group=>group.promotionRows.every(row=>rowIsCurrent(row)&&Number(row.lower_bound||0)>0.003));
-  const negativeRows=horizonRows.filter(group=>group.rows.some(row=>rowIsCurrent(row)&&Number(row.upper_bound||0)<-0.003));
+  const negativeRows=horizonRows.filter(group=>group.riskRows.some(row=>rowIsCurrent(row)&&Number(row.upper_bound||0)<-0.003));
   const promoted=positiveRows.length>=2&&negativeRows.length===0;
   const demoted=negativeRows.length>=2&&positiveRows.length===0;
-  const trustedScore=promoted?positiveRows.reduce((sum,group)=>sum+Math.min(...group.rows.map(row=>Number(row.lower_bound||0))),0)/positiveRows.length
+  const trustedScore=promoted?positiveRows.reduce((sum,group)=>sum+Math.min(...group.promotionRows.map(row=>Number(row.lower_bound||0))),0)/positiveRows.length
-    :(demoted?negativeRows.reduce((sum,group)=>sum+Math.min(...group.rows.filter(rowIsCurrent).map(row=>Number(row.upper_bound||0))),0)/negativeRows.length:score*0.10);
+    :(demoted?negativeRows.reduce((sum,group)=>sum+Math.min(...group.riskRows.filter(rowIsCurrent).map(row=>Number(row.upper_bound||0))),0)/negativeRows.length:score*0.10);
   const state=promoted?"promoted":(demoted?"demoted":"observing");
   return {score:+score.toFixed(4),confidence:+confidence.toFixed(3),state,promoted,demoted,
     supporting_features:promoted?positiveRows.length:negativeRows.length,
@@ -2001,7 +2005,7 @@ function historicalOpportunityPrior(s){
 }
 function historicalPromotionMet(historical,calibrationModel){
   const buckets=calibrationModel&&calibrationModel.buckets||{};
-  return !historical.requiresPromotion||historical.requiredPromotionFeatures.every(key=>SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS.every(horizon=>{
+  return !historical.requiresPromotion||historical.requiredPromotionFeatures.every(key=>SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS.every(horizon=>{
     const row=buckets[`${key}|horizon:${horizon}`];
     return Number(row&&row.weight||0)>=8&&Number(row&&row.current_weight||0)>=5&&Number(row&&row.lower_bound||0)>0.003;
   }));
@@ -2336,8 +2340,8 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false,executeTrades=true}
       if(fresh.closed||fresh.accepting_orders===false){closePosition(p,pos,"Complete bundle leg settled","CLOSE");continue;}
       stillOpen.push(pos);continue;
     }
-    if(policyExits&&normalizedStrategyVersion(pos.strategy_version)<SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION&&["trend","reversal"].includes(pos.signal_type||"")){
+    if(policyExits&&normalizedStrategyVersion(pos.strategy_version)<SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION){
-      closePosition(p,pos,`Strategy ${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION} retired this unproven directional setup`,"EXIT");continue;
+      closePosition(p,pos,`Strategy ${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION} retired this legacy directional holding`,"EXIT");continue;
     }
     for(const stopTier of triggeredStopLosses(pos))scaleStopLossPosition(p,pos,stopTier);
     if(pos._closedByStop){delete pos._closedByStop;continue;}
@@ -3326,7 +3330,7 @@ function decisionSummary(p){
   const blockerRows=Object.entries(d.rejectionCounts||{}).filter(([,count])=>count>0).sort((a,b)=>b[1]-a[1]);
   const blockers=blockerRows.length?` Blocks: ${blockerRows.slice(0,4).map(([key,count])=>`${blockerLabels[key]||key} ${count}`).join(", ")}.`:"";
   const learning=d.learning?` Learning: ${d.learning.samples} completed trades retained with older strategies down-weighted, ${(d.learning.global_score*100).toFixed(2)}% shrunk expectancy; ${d.learning.current_samples||0} completed under adaptive strategy ${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION}${d.learning.best?`; strongest ${d.learning.best.feature.replace(":"," ")}`:""}${d.learning.worst?`; weakest ${d.learning.worst.feature.replace(":"," ")}`:""}.`:"";
-  const calibration=d.marketLearning?` Walk-forward calibration: ${d.marketLearning.samples||0} net-of-cost checkpoint observations across ${d.marketLearning.events||d.marketLearning.markets||0} event clusters / ${d.marketLearning.markets||0} markets, graded separately near ${SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS.join("h and ")}h (${d.marketLearning.current_samples||0} observations / ${d.marketLearning.current_events||0} events under adaptive strategy ${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION}), ${d.marketLearning.pending||0} awaiting a future checkpoint${d.marketLearning.expired_ungraded?`, ${d.marketLearning.expired_ungraded} expired checkpoints`:""}; ${d.marketLearning.promoted_buckets||0} horizon-specific feature cohorts promoted and ${d.marketLearning.demoted_buckets||0} demoted. Promotion requires positive current-strategy evidence at both horizons across independent events. Missed windows expire rather than borrowing a later price. New observations prioritize under-sampled signal/side/category cohorts and independent events before repeats. Correlated outcome markets in one event count as one effective outcome. Historical prior: every directional trend and reversal remains observation-only until its exact recent cohorts independently promote; settlement-jump barriers stay excluded.`:"";
+  const calibration=d.marketLearning?` Walk-forward calibration: ${d.marketLearning.samples||0} net-of-cost checkpoint observations across ${d.marketLearning.events||d.marketLearning.markets||0} event clusters / ${d.marketLearning.markets||0} markets, graded at ${SIGNAL_EARLY_RISK_HORIZONS.join("h, ")}h for early loss vetoes and ${SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS.join("h and ")}h for promotion (${d.marketLearning.current_samples||0} observations / ${d.marketLearning.current_events||0} events under adaptive strategy ${SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION}), ${d.marketLearning.pending||0} awaiting a future checkpoint${d.marketLearning.expired_ungraded?`, ${d.marketLearning.expired_ungraded} expired checkpoints`:""}; ${d.marketLearning.promoted_buckets||0} horizon-specific feature cohorts promoted and ${d.marketLearning.demoted_buckets||0} demoted. Promotion requires positive current-strategy evidence at both promotion horizons across independent events; one mature negative cohort at any checkpoint can veto risk. Missed windows expire rather than borrowing a later price. New observations prioritize under-sampled signal/side/category cohorts and independent events before repeats. Correlated outcome markets in one event count as one effective outcome. Historical prior: every directional trend and reversal remains observation-only until its exact recent cohorts independently promote; settlement-jump barriers stay excluded.`:"";
   const makerStats=d.makerProfile&&d.makerProfile.global;
   const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker learner: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital shadow observations and ${d.makerCapitalActive||0} evidence-promoted capital quotes active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} shadow outcomes completed this cycle, ${fmtUSD(d.makerReserved||0)} capital reserved.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} paired touches, ${makerStats.adverse} adverse single touches, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.pnl)} actual paper net.`:""} Capital promotion requires ${MAKER_MIN_COHORT_ATTEMPTS} current-strategy events with positive confidence bounds in both category and spread cohorts. Rewards remain excluded until externally verified.`:"";
   return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
@@ -4942,7 +4946,9 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
     coreGapTradeLossPct:MAX_CORE_GAP_TRADE_LOSS_PCT*100,aggressiveGapTradeLossPct:MAX_AGGRESSIVE_GAP_TRADE_LOSS_PCT*100,
     offlineEntryMaxAgeMinutes:OFFLINE_ENTRY_MAX_AGE_MS/60000,offlineCacheMaxAgeHours:OFFLINE_CACHE_MAX_AGE_MS/3600000,explorationPct:15,
     networkTimeoutSeconds:NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS/1000,priceTimeoutSeconds:PRICE_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS/1000,
-    staleCacheIsMarkOnly:true,strategyEvidenceSurvivesBuilds:true,signalEvaluationHours:SIGNAL_EVAL_HOURS,signalEvaluationHorizons:SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS,signalEvaluationToleranceHours:SIGNAL_EVAL_TOLERANCE_HOURS,signalRetryHours:SIGNAL_LEDGER_RETRY_HOURS,
+    staleCacheIsMarkOnly:true,strategyEvidenceSurvivesBuilds:true,signalEvaluationHours:SIGNAL_EVAL_HOURS,signalEvaluationHorizons:SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS,
+    signalEarlyRiskHorizons:SIGNAL_EARLY_RISK_HORIZONS,signalPromotionHorizons:SIGNAL_PROMOTION_HORIZONS,
+    signalEvaluationToleranceHours:SIGNAL_EVAL_TOLERANCE_HOURS,signalRetryHours:SIGNAL_LEDGER_RETRY_HOURS,
     signalDueFetchLimit:SIGNAL_LEDGER_DUE_FETCH_LIMIT,survivorshipSafeSignalGrading:true,
     signalRoundTripCostCents:SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST*100,independentConfidence:true,eventClusteredCalibration:true,
     onePendingObservationPerMarketSide:true,oldestPendingEvidenceFirst:true,coverageAwareObservationSampling:true,uncertaintyGatedCalibration:true,
@@ -5056,6 +5062,8 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
     {market_id:`correlated-market-${index}`,event_key:"one-correlated-event",target_horizon_hours:horizon,strategy_version:SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION,return:0.12,evaluated_at:closedAt}))).flat()});
   const correlatedEventState=calibratedOpportunity(calibrationCandidate,correlatedEventCalibration);
   const singleCalibration=calibratedOpportunity(calibrationCandidate,calibrationFromReturns([0.10]));
+  const earlyPositiveCalibration=calibratedOpportunity(calibrationCandidate,calibrationFromReturns(Array(24).fill(0.12),calibrationCandidate,SIGNAL_EARLY_RISK_HORIZONS));
+  const earlyNegativeCalibration=calibratedOpportunity(calibrationCandidate,calibrationFromReturns(Array(24).fill(-0.12),calibrationCandidate,SIGNAL_EARLY_RISK_HORIZONS));
   const oneHorizonPositiveCalibration=calibratedOpportunity(calibrationCandidate,calibrationFromReturns(Array(24).fill(0.12),calibrationCandidate,[24]));
   const previousOnlyProfile=buildSignalCalibration({pending:[],outcomes:Array.from({length:24},(_,index)=>SIGNAL_EVAL_HORIZONS.map(horizon=>Object.assign({},calibrationCandidate,
     {market_id:`previous-only-${index}`,event_key:`previous-only-event-${index}`,target_horizon_hours:horizon,strategy_version:PREVIOUS_STRATEGY_VERSION,return:0.12,evaluated_at:closedAt}))).flat()});
@@ -5124,6 +5132,11 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
   const retiredFixture=accountingBook(0.45),retiredEquityBefore=equity(retiredFixture.book);
   retiredFixture.pos.strategy_version=PREVIOUS_STRATEGY_VERSION;
   markToMarket(retiredFixture.book,{[retiredFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:retiredFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.45,no_price:0.55})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
+  const unlabeledLegacyFixture=accountingBook(0.45),unlabeledLegacyEquityBefore=equity(unlabeledLegacyFixture.book);
+  delete unlabeledLegacyFixture.pos.strategy_version;delete unlabeledLegacyFixture.pos.signal_type;
+  markToMarket(unlabeledLegacyFixture.book,{[unlabeledLegacyFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:unlabeledLegacyFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.45,no_price:0.55})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
+  const currentUnlabeledFixture=accountingBook(0.45);currentUnlabeledFixture.pos.strategy_version=SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION;delete currentUnlabeledFixture.pos.signal_type;
+  markToMarket(currentUnlabeledFixture.book,{[currentUnlabeledFixture.pos.market_id]:market({id:currentUnlabeledFixture.pos.market_id,yes_price:0.45,no_price:0.55})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
   const nonBinaryMarketRejected=normalizeMarket({id:"over-under-test",question:"Over/Under 2.5",outcomes:'["Over","Under"]',outcomePrices:'["0.5","0.5"]',acceptingOrders:true})===null;
   const makerMarket=market({id:"maker-test",question:"Will the paired quote test pass?",yes_price:0.42,no_price:0.58,best_bid:0.40,best_ask:0.44,spread:0.04,
     tick_size:0.01,order_min_size:5,rewards_daily_rate:10,rewards_min_size:50,rewards_max_spread:4.5,competitive:0.8,price_change_1d:0.01});
@@ -5339,16 +5352,18 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       missed24hWindowIsNotBackfilled:missedFirstWindowState.signal_ledger.pending.length===1&&missedFirstWindowState.signal_ledger.outcomes.length===0,
       fetchesMaturedMarketsOutsideActiveScan:dueFetchIds.length===1&&dueFetchIds[0]==="outside-active-scan",
       keepsUnavailableGradesQueued:retryLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending.length===1&&retryLedgerState.signal_ledger.outcomes.length===0,
-      expiresOnlyAfterRetryWindow:expiredLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending.length===0&&expiredLedgerState.signal_ledger.expired_ungraded===2,
+      expiresOnlyAfterRetryWindow:expiredLedgerState.signal_ledger.pending.length===0&&expiredLedgerState.signal_ledger.expired_ungraded===3,
       ledgerIsNetOfCosts:ledgerState.signal_ledger.outcomes[0].gross_return===0.25&&ledgerState.signal_ledger.outcomes[0].estimated_cost_return===0.0125,
       independentCalibrationConfidence:singleCalibration.confidence<0.06,
       repeatedSnapshotsCountAsOneMarket:repeatedMarketCalibration.markets===1&&repeatedMarketCalibration.buckets["signal:trend"].samples===1
-        &&repeatedMarketCalibration.buckets["signal:trend"].observations===48&&repeatedMarketState.state==="observing",
+        &&repeatedMarketCalibration.buckets["signal:trend"].observations===72&&repeatedMarketState.state==="observing",
       correlatedMarketsCountAsOneEvent:correlatedEventCalibration.markets===24&&correlatedEventCalibration.events===1
         &&correlatedEventCalibration.buckets["signal:trend"].samples===1&&correlatedEventState.state==="observing",
       stablePositiveEventCount:stablePositiveProfile.events,
       stablePositiveMarketCount:stablePositiveProfile.markets,
       distinctEventsCanPromote:stablePositiveProfile.events===24&&stablePositiveCalibration.state==="promoted"&&stablePositiveCalibration.supporting_features>=2,
+      sixHourPositiveEvidenceCannotPromote:earlyPositiveCalibration.state==="observing"&&!earlyPositiveCalibration.promoted,
+      sixHourNegativeEvidenceCanDemote:earlyNegativeCalibration.state==="demoted"&&!earlyNegativeCalibration.allowed,
       oneHorizonCannotPromote:oneHorizonPositiveCalibration.state==="observing"&&!oneHorizonPositiveCalibration.promoted,
       previousStrategyCannotPromote:previousOnlyCalibration.state==="observing"&&!previousOnlyCalibration.promoted,
       legacyBuildLineageRemainsHistorical:normalizedStrategyVersion(41)===40,
@@ -5377,6 +5392,8 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       stopOutReconciles:stopFixture.book.positions.length===0&&stopFixture.book.cash===9800&&stopFixture.book.closed[0].realized_pnl===-200,
       settlementReconciles:settlementFixture.book.positions.length===0&&settlementFixture.book.cash===11000&&settlementFixture.book.closed[0].realized_pnl===1000,
       retiredDirectionalPositionExitsAtFreshPrice:retiredFixture.book.positions.length===0&&retiredFixture.book.closed[0].close_reason.includes("retired")&&Math.abs(retiredFixture.book.cash-retiredEquityBefore)<=0.02,
+      unlabeledLegacyPositionExitsAtFreshPrice:unlabeledLegacyFixture.book.positions.length===0&&unlabeledLegacyFixture.book.closed[0].close_reason.includes("retired")&&Math.abs(unlabeledLegacyFixture.book.cash-unlabeledLegacyEquityBefore)<=0.02,
+      currentUnlabeledPositionIsPreserved:currentUnlabeledFixture.book.positions.length===1&&currentUnlabeledFixture.book.closed.length===0,
       riskTrimConservesEquity:+equity(riskBook).toFixed(2)===10000,
       adaptiveReturnSetsLeader:adaptiveRankFixture[0].c.id==="adaptive-leader",
     },

sw.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-68";
+const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-build-69";
 const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
 
 self.addEventListener("install", event => {