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Align adaptation with audited outcomes

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Theodore Song
2026-08-18 10:45:58 -04:00
parent 7b81dbfa4b
commit ad11de39ad
5 changed files with 128 additions and 55 deletions
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scripts/evaluate-settlements.mjs
+21 -1
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@@ -208,4 +208,24 @@ const report = {
return [horizon, { observations: horizonRows.length / 2, chronological: chronologicalEvaluation(horizonRows) }];
})),
};
console.log(JSON.stringify(report, null, 2));
const compact = process.env.SETTLEMENT_SUMMARY === "1";
const compactStats = (stats = {}) => ({ count: stats.count || 0, events: stats.events || 0,
mean: stats.mean || 0, eventMean: stats.eventMean || 0, eventLower90: stats.eventLower90 || 0,
eventUpper90: stats.eventUpper90 || 0, winRate: stats.winRate || 0 });
const compactRules = (rules = {}) => Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(rules)
.filter(([, result]) => result.enoughData && (result.allPositive || result.allNegative))
.map(([name, result]) => [name, { direction: result.allPositive ? "positive" : "negative",
pooled: compactStats(result.pooled), train: compactStats(result.train), test: compactStats(result.test) }]));
const summary = {
generatedAt: report.generatedAt, requestedMarkets: report.requestedMarkets, resolvedMarkets: report.resolvedMarkets,
marketsWithHistory: report.marketsWithHistory, failures: report.failures,
horizons: Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(report.horizons).map(([days, value]) => [days, {
observations: value.observations,
favorite: compactStats(value.chronological.train.buy_favorite),
favoriteTest: compactStats(value.chronological.test.buy_favorite),
underdog: compactStats(value.chronological.train.buy_underdog),
underdogTest: compactStats(value.chronological.test.buy_underdog),
robustRules: compactRules(value.chronological.robustRules),
}])),
};
console.log(JSON.stringify(compact ? summary : report, null, 2));