<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
</div>
</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 99 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every five minutes while every user device is closed. Each cycle scans the 1,000 most-active events for complete negative-risk and same-event dominance bundles, and the shared Suggestions view reports the closest executable margin even when no bundle is profitable after modeled costs. Five aggressive agents can also take tightly bounded, safe non-Sports 50–55% NO positions in independently passing three-through-six-day settlement windows. Other unproven directional rules remain observation-only. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 100 active:</b> The public paper agents run autonomously every five minutes while every user device is closed. Each cycle scans the 1,000 most-active events for complete negative-risk and same-event dominance bundles, and the shared Suggestions view reports the closest executable margin even when no bundle is profitable after modeled costs. A corrected one-decision-per-event audit invalidated the old 3–6 day resolution capital permission, so the remaining 4-day 50–55% NO candidate now collects zero-capital forward outcomes and needs 40 independent settled events with a positive confidence bound before risking 0.5%. Phones and computers display the same read-only autonomous state. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
drivers:[`validated ${window.days}-day settlement window`,"NO midpoint is 50–55%","executable NO ask plus 0.25c slippage","one owner per event","hold to verified settlement"],
drivers:[`corrected ${window.days}-day discovery window`,"NO midpoint is 50–55%","executable NO ask plus 0.25c slippage","one observation per event","zero capital until forward promotion"],
rationale:`Bounded current-regime pilot: NO is priced at ${pct(marketPrice)} for a safe non-Sports contract resolving in ${days.toFixed(1)} days, inside the independently passing ${window.days}-day window. The modeled entry is ${pct(modeledEntry)} using the executable NO ask plus 0.25-cent slippage, ${(executionCost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint. In the most recent 2,954 resolved-market replay at one-cent cost, the exact production-matched 50–55% NO rule covered ${audit.events} ${window.days}-day event clusters with a ${(audit.eventMean*100).toFixed(2)}% event mean and ${(audit.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound; chronological train and holdout bounds were ${(audit.trainLower*100).toFixed(2)}% and ${(audit.holdoutLower*100).toFixed(2)}%. Historical liquidity at the decision point cannot be reconstructed, so this remains a 0.5% paper pilot with live liquidity gates, one owner per event, a 3% total cap, settlement-only exits, and automatic per-horizon forward demotion.`};
rationale:`Zero-capital forward learner: NO is priced at ${pct(marketPrice)} for a safe non-Sports contract resolving in ${days.toFixed(1)} days, inside the corrected ${window.days}-day discovery window. The modeled entry is ${pct(modeledEntry)} using the executable NO ask plus 0.25-cent slippage, ${(executionCost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint. A corrected recent replay selected only one highest-volume eligible contract per event and found ${audit.events} observations with a ${(audit.eventMean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(audit.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound, but a disjoint older holdout failed the all-segment confidence gate. No capital is allowed until 40 independent forward settlements produce a positive lower confidence bound above 1%.`};
}
}
function sportsFavoriteLeadHours(item){return hoursUntil(item&&item.game_start);}
function sportsFavoriteLeadHours(item){return hoursUntil(item&&item.game_start);}
function sportsFavoritePilotSuggestion(m){
function sportsFavoritePilotSuggestion(m){
@@ -1658,7 +1656,7 @@ function generateSuggestions(markets,total=SUGGESTION_TOTAL,perCategory=SUGGESTI
}
}
/* ---------- Multi-agent store ---------- */
/* ---------- Multi-agent store ---------- */
function defaultPortfolio(){return {cash:STARTING_BALANCE,starting_balance:STARTING_BALANCE,positions:[],maker_quotes:[],maker_outcomes:[],sports_favorite_shadows:[],sports_favorite_outcomes:[],shock_fade_shadows:[],shock_fade_outcomes:[],shock_fade_expired_ungraded:0,closed:[],history:[],snapshots:[],stopped:{},lastDecision:null};}
function defaultPortfolio(){return {cash:STARTING_BALANCE,starting_balance:STARTING_BALANCE,positions:[],maker_quotes:[],maker_outcomes:[],sports_favorite_shadows:[],sports_favorite_outcomes:[],shock_fade_shadows:[],shock_fade_outcomes:[],shock_fade_expired_ungraded:0,resolution_week_no_shadows:[],resolution_week_no_outcomes:[],closed:[],history:[],snapshots:[],stopped:{},lastDecision:null};}
function defaultState(){const agents={};AGENTS.forEach(a=>agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio());return {date:null,last_run:null,last_cycle_hour:null,
function defaultState(){const agents={};AGENTS.forEach(a=>agents[a.id]=defaultPortfolio());return {date:null,last_run:null,last_cycle_hour:null,
rationale:`Forward evidence disabled the ${s.target_horizon_days||7}-day regime pilot after ${horizon&&horizon.events||profile&&profile.events||0} independent settled events. ${s.rationale||""}`});
rationale:`Capital remains disabled for the ${s.target_horizon_days||4}-day forward learner after ${horizon&&horizon.events||profile&&profile.events||0} independent settled events. ${s.rationale||""}`});
}
function stageResolutionWeekNoShadows(p,suggestions,{execute=true,usedEventKeys=null}={}){
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Resolution-window NO pilot: shared state ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.state}, ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.events} settled events, ${(sharedResolutionWeekProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% position cap and ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}% total cap; only validated 3d–6d windows can trade, one agent owns each event, and positions hold to verified settlement.`.trim();
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Corrected 4-day NO learner: shared state ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.state}, ${sharedResolutionWeekProfile.events} settled events and ${(sharedResolutionWeekProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% position cap; capital stays at zero before forward promotion.`.trim();
@@ -4065,6 +4124,15 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
shockFadePilot:shockProfile});
shockFadePilot:shockProfile});
adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${shockStage.active} zero-capital observation${shockStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${shockShadowActivity.completed} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour outcome${shockShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${shockProfile.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_QUALIFICATION_EVENTS} events needed for 1% capital and ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} for 1.5%; current cap ${(shockProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%.`.trim();
adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${shockStage.active} zero-capital observation${shockStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${shockShadowActivity.completed} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour outcome${shockShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${shockProfile.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_QUALIFICATION_EVENTS} events needed for 1% capital and ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} for 1.5%; current cap ${(shockProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%.`.trim();
adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${adopter.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shared 4-day NO learner: ${resolutionStage.active} zero-capital observation${resolutionStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${resolutionShadowActivity.completed} settled outcome${resolutionShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${resolutionProfile.events}/${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_PROMOTION_EVENTS} events needed before a 0.5% paper position; current cap ${(resolutionProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%.`.trim();
@@ -4264,15 +4332,15 @@ function decisionSummary(p){
const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports forward learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent closed events, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} new independent events establish a positive lower bound.`:"";
const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports forward learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent closed events, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} new independent events establish a positive lower bound.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_QUALIFICATION_EVENTS} positive events can qualify 1% capital and ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} stronger events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shared shock strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION}: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events} deduplicated forward events complete across five adopters. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_QUALIFICATION_EVENTS} positive events can qualify 1% capital and ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} stronger events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%.`:"";
const resolutionWeek=d.resolutionWeekNoPilot?` Resolution-window NO pilot: ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.state}, ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.events} shared settled events, ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound. Position cap ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; only validated 3d–6d windows can trade, each horizon adapts separately, one agent owns each event, and every position holds to verified settlement.`:"";
const resolutionWeek=d.resolutionWeekNoPilot?` Corrected 4-day NO learner: ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.state}, ${d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.events} shared settled events, ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% lower 90% bound. Position cap ${(d.resolutionWeekNoPilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until 40 independent outcomes clear the forward confidence gate.`:"";
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${resolutionWeek}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${resolutionWeek}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital 12h sports observations until 30 forward events promote 1.25% positions":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`One bounded 3d–6d resolution-window NO entry per cycle; ${RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}% total cap plus zero-capital shock research`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital 12h sports observations until 30 forward events promote 1.25% positions":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Zero-capital 4-day NO observations until 40 independent settlements promote 0.5% positions; plus zero-capital shock research`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; after promotion, capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Hold 3d–6d resolution-window positions to verified settlement; exit shock positions at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours and discard missed grading windows`
const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; after promotion, capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":RESOLUTION_WEEK_NO_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Grade 4-day NO observations only at verified settlement; after promotion, capital positions also hold to settlement; shock observations exit at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours`
:`Exit after a confirmed reversal, a 12h unconfirmed fade after 48h, a trailing-profit retrace, or ${EXIT_STALE_DAYS}d stale while losing; Politics trends get 72h before ordinary signal exits`;
:`Exit after a confirmed reversal, a 12h unconfirmed fade after 48h, a trailing-profit retrace, or ${EXIT_STALE_DAYS}d stale while losing; Politics trends get 72h before ordinary signal exits`;
const thesis=agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st);
const thesis=agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st);
const quoteSummary=(p.maker_quotes||[]).slice(0,3).map(quote=>`${quote.shadow_only?"Shadow":"Capital"} · ${quote.question.slice(0,34)}${quote.question.length>34?"...":""}: YES ${pct(quote.yes_quote)} + NO ${pct(quote.no_quote)}${quote.yes_filled_at||quote.no_filled_at?" (one leg touched)":""}`).join("; ");
const quoteSummary=(p.maker_quotes||[]).slice(0,3).map(quote=>`${quote.shadow_only?"Shadow":"Capital"} · ${quote.question.slice(0,34)}${quote.question.length>34?"...":""}: YES ${pct(quote.yes_quote)} + NO ${pct(quote.no_quote)}${quote.yes_filled_at||quote.no_filled_at?" (one leg touched)":""}`).join("; ");
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the adaptive holdouts at both 24h and 72h. Contract-safe Shock Strategy 4 remains zero-capital after its untouched expansion failed. An exact production-matched 50%-55% NO rule passed safe non-Sports chronological audits at three, four, five, and six days with one-cent modeled cost; two days failed holdout and seven through ten days failed the stricter all-segment confidence test or were not retained. Contemporaneous historical liquidity cannot be reconstructed, so only live safe non-Sports contracts in the passing windows that clear spread and liquidity gates receive 0.5% paper positions, one owner per event, a 3% cap, settlement-only exits, and automatic per-horizon demotion from forward losses. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the adaptive holdouts at both 24h and 72h. Contract-safe Shock Strategy 4 remains zero-capital after its untouched expansion failed. The earlier 3-6 day 50%-55% NO permission was invalidated because its audit averaged several correlated contracts per event. A corrected one-decision-per-event replay retained only the four-day discovery window, and that candidate failed the all-segment gate in a disjoint older 3,000-market holdout. It now collects zero-capital forward settlements and requires 40 independent outcomes with a positive lower confidence bound above 1% before 0.5% paper positions can begin. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
});
});
function runEngineSelfTest(){
function runEngineSelfTest(){
const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
@@ -5979,23 +6050,36 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
const pathBarrierContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"barrier-test",question:"Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?",category:"Crypto"}),news);
const pathBarrierContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"barrier-test",question:"Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?",category:"Crypto"}),news);
const fixedDateLevelContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"fixed-level-test",question:"Will Bitcoin be above $66,000 on 2026-08-23?",category:"Crypto"}),news);
const fixedDateLevelContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"fixed-level-test",question:"Will Bitcoin be above $66,000 on 2026-08-23?",category:"Crypto"}),news);
const ordinaryDatedContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"dated-test",question:"Will the policy pass on 2026-08-22?"}),news);
const ordinaryDatedContract=analyzeMarket(market({id:"dated-test",question:"Will the policy pass on 2026-08-22?"}),news);
const resolutionWeekMarket=market({id:"resolution-week",question:"Will Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?",event:"Bitcoin price on August 27",event_id:"btc-aug-27",
const resolutionWeekMarket=market({id:"resolution-week",question:"Will Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27?",event:"Bitcoin price on August 27",event_id:"btc-aug-27",
const pathDependentResolutionWeek=resolutionWeekNoSuggestion(market({id:"resolution-path",question:"Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 by August 27?",event_id:"resolution-path-event",
const pathDependentResolutionWeek=resolutionWeekNoSuggestion(market({id:"resolution-path",question:"Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 by August 27?",event_id:"resolution-path-event",
const sportsResolutionWeek=resolutionWeekNoSuggestion(market({id:"resolution-sports",question:"Will Harbor FC win?",event_id:"resolution-sports-event",
const sportsResolutionWeek=resolutionWeekNoSuggestion(market({id:"resolution-sports",question:"Will Harbor FC win?",event_id:"resolution-sports-event",
const sportsPilot=analyzeMarket(market({id:"sports-pilot",question:"Will Harbor FC win tomorrow?",event:"Harbor FC vs City FC",event_id:"sports-event-1",
const sportsPilot=analyzeMarket(market({id:"sports-pilot",question:"Will Harbor FC win tomorrow?",event:"Harbor FC vs City FC",event_id:"sports-event-1",
"finding":"The prior 3-6 day capital permission was invalid because it averaged multiple correlated contracts inside an event. After selecting one decision per event, only the four-day safe rule survived the recent discovery sample, and it failed the strict all-segment gate in a disjoint older sample. Production therefore records zero-capital forward outcomes only.",
"limitations":[
"limitations":[
"Final volume is used to select one contract per event and was not known at the historical decision time.",
"The resolved archive cannot reconstruct contemporaneous historical liquidity or order-book depth.",
"The resolved archive cannot reconstruct contemporaneous historical liquidity or order-book depth.",
"Recent closed-market selection can reflect a temporary question-construction regime.",
"Published midpoint history is not a fill guarantee.",
"Published midpoint history is not a fill guarantee; production therefore applies current executable pricing and liquidity gates.",
"Forward promotion would authorize bounded paper trading only and would not guarantee profit."
"This audit authorizes only bounded paper trading and does not guarantee future profit."
note:"Each rule uses only daily prices available at or before the decision horizon and a subsequently published binary settlement. Trend replays require aligned one-day and one-week direction under the production move bounds. Confidence bounds cluster related markets by event. Markets are selected by resolved volume, so results still carry historical-selection and execution-model limitations."},
clusterUnit:"one highest-volume eligible contract per event and rule",
note:"Each rule uses only daily prices available at or before the decision horizon and a subsequently published binary settlement. Trend replays require aligned one-day and one-week direction under the production move bounds. Each rule makes at most one capital decision per event, choosing the highest-volume eligible contract with a stable market-ID tie-breaker. Strict robust rules require positive or negative event-level 90% bounds in pooled data, chronological train, chronological holdout, and every chronological third. Markets are selected by resolved volume, so results still carry historical-selection and execution-model limitations."},
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Theodore Song