<b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 86 active:</b>Shock Reversion now fades accelerating 4%+ three-hour moves into 8–25% opposite-side contracts and exits after 24 hours at an executable price. The exact rule survived train, validation, chronological holdout, and sealed event holdout at one-cent modeled cost across 299 independent partition-events. It begins at 0.5% paper positions, can adapt to 1% after 30 positive forward events, and demotes on losing evidence. Maker capital remains retired. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
<divclass="live-build-banner"><b>Build 87 active:</b>The five aggressive agents can adopt a two-cent-stressed shock strategy: fade an accelerating 8%+ three-hour move and exit after 12 hours at an executable price. The exact rule retained positive event-clustered confidence bounds in train, validation, chronological holdout, and sealed event holdout across 417 partition-events. Entries begin at 1% of paper equity, are distributed across agents without repeating an event, and can promote or demote from each agent's forward results. Offline installs now replace stale cached builds correctly. Profits are not guaranteed.</div>
Build 86 · Adaptive strategy 59 · Shock strategy 2 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
Build 87 · Adaptive strategy 59 · Shock strategy 3 · Offline runtime 2 · Maker research 3 · Agent learning 3 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs · Not financial advice ·
<aclass="market-link"href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst"target="_blank"rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
blurb:"A fast mean-reversion strategy selected from 534,894 hourly observations across 2,000 active markets. It fades accelerating moves of at least 4 percentage points over three hours only when the opposite contract is an 8–25% longshot, entry friction is at most half a cent, and an executable book price exists. It exits after 24 hours, begins at 0.5% paper positions, adapts to 1% after 30 positive independent forward events, and shuts capital off when forward evidence turns negative.",
blurb:"The specialist for a cost-stressed mean-reversion rule selected from 534,894 hourly observations across 2,000 active markets. It fades accelerating moves of at least 8 percentage points over three hours, requires an executable opposite-side entry from 8–92%, and exits after 12 hours. The same audited lane is available to all five aggressive agents as an adaptive fallback, but each event can be owned by only one agent and losing forward evidence disables that agent's access.",
drivers:["4%+ three-hour shock","accelerating final hour","8–25% opposite-side longshot","24-hour executable exit","one-cent stress-tested"],
rationale:`Backtest-approved paper pilot: YES moved ${(move3*100).toFixed(2)} points in three hours and ${(move1*100).toFixed(2)} in the accelerating finalhour versus ${(priorMove1*100).toFixed(2)} previously. The strategy fades that move with the ${side} longshot at modeled ${pct(execution.price)}, ${(execution.cost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint, and exits at an executable price after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours. The exact rule retained positive 90% lower bounds in train, validation, chronological holdout, and sealed event holdout at one-cent cost; initial paper risk is still limited to 0.5% of equity.`};
drivers:["8%+ three-hour shock","accelerating final hour","8–92% opposite-side entry","12-hour executable exit","two-cent stress-tested"],
rationale:`Backtest-approved paper strategy: YES moved ${(move3*100).toFixed(2)} points in three hours and ${(move1*100).toFixed(2)} in the accelerating final hour versus ${(priorMove1*100).toFixed(2)} previously. The strategy fades that move with ${side} at modeled ${pct(execution.price)}, ${(execution.cost*100).toFixed(2)} cents above midpoint, and exits at an executable price after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours. The exact rule retained positive 90% lower bounds across the original four partitions at two-cent modeled cost and passed the event-disjoint holdout on the next 1,000 markets, although two independent chronological bounds crossed slightly below zero. Initial paper risk therefore remains limited to 1% of equity.`};
}
async function fetchShockFadeSuggestions(markets){
?`Forward size promotion: ${profile.events} independent Strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION} events produced a ${(profile.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(profile.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% lower bound after executable costs. Paper size increases to 1% with a 3% total cap. ${s.rationale||""}`
:`Independent 2,000-market audit approved a tightly capped 0.5% paper pilot; forward evidence can increase, retain, or demote that risk. ${s.rationale||""}`});
?`Forward size promotion: ${profile.events} independent Strategy ${SHOCK_FADE_STRATEGY_VERSION} events produced a ${(profile.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean and ${(profile.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% lower bound after executable costs. Paper size increases to 1.5% with a 5% total cap. ${s.rationale||""}`
:`Independent 2,000-market audit approved a 1% paper position under a 5% total cap; this agent's forward evidence can increase, retain, or demote that risk. ${s.rationale||""}`});
}
function stageShockFadeShadows(p,suggestions,{execute=true}={}){
function stageShockFadeShadows(p,suggestions,{execute=true,usedEventKeys=null}={}){
p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"SHOCK_EXPIRED",question:row.question,side:row.side,detail:"24-hour shock observation expired without an executable exit inside the allowed window; no return was invented"});continue;
p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"SHOCK_EXPIRED",question:row.question,side:row.side,detail:`${targetHours}-hour shock observation expired without an executable exit inside the allowed window; no return was invented`});continue;
@@ -3224,7 +3242,8 @@ function peerAdjustedSuggestion(s,peer){
function materialPositionThreshold(p){return Math.max(50,equity(p)*0.0125);}
function isMaterialPosition(p,pos){return Number(pos&&((pos.value!=null)?pos.value:Number(pos.shares||0)*Number(pos.current_price||0)))>=materialPositionThreshold(p);}
function addPortfolioMarketsToSet(set,p,{materialOnly=false}={}){
?`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Forward-promoted sports position bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ modeled ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)} (${pct(Number(s.market_price||entry))} midpoint + ${((entry-Number(s.market_price||entry))*100).toFixed(2)}c executable friction) · one position for event ${s.event_key||s.event||s.market_id} · learner state ${pilotProfile.state} · ${(Number(s.hours_to_start)||0).toFixed(1)}h before start`
:s.signal_type==="shock-fade-pilot"
?`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}${shockProfile.promoted?"Forward-promoted":"Backtest-approved"} 24-hour shock fade bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ executable modeled ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)} after a ${(Number(s.shock_move_3h||0)*100).toFixed(2)}-point move · learner state ${shockProfile.state} · fixed executable exit target in ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}h`
?`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}${shockProfile.promoted?"Forward-promoted":"Backtest-approved"} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour shock fade bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ executable modeled ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)} after a ${(Number(s.shock_move_3h||0)*100).toFixed(2)}-point move · learner state ${shockProfile.state} · fixed executable exit target in ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}h`
:`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)} · max binary loss budget ${(riskBudgetPct*100).toFixed(1)}% · signal margin ${((Math.abs(s.net_edge!=null?s.net_edge:s.edge))*100).toFixed(1)}c · learned weight ${Number(s.learning_multiplier||1).toFixed(2)}x (${s.learning_state||"observing"}/${s.market_learning_state||"observing"})${(s.historical_prior_features||[]).length?` · history prior ${(s.historical_prior_features||[]).join("+")}`:""} · evidence ${Math.round((s.evidence_score||0)*100)}${s.peer_note?` (${s.peer_note})`:""}`;
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Sports forward learner: ${shadowStage.active} zero-capital observation${shadowStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${sportsShadowActivity.completed} closed outcome${sportsShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle; no capital is allowed before the forward confidence gate promotes.`.trim();
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shock strategy 2: ${shockStage.active} zero-capital observation${shockStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${shockShadowActivity.completed} 24-hour outcome${shockShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${shockProfile.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} independent forward events complete; current paper position cap ${(shockProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% and losses can demote it to zero.`.trim();
@@ -3769,8 +3799,14 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
p.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${p.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Maker research: ${staged.shadowActive} zero-capital lock-or-exit observation${staged.shadowActive===1?"":"s"}, ${makerActivity.shadowCompleted||0} outcome${makerActivity.shadowCompleted===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle; capital remains disabled after the chronological holdout failure, and displayed reward estimates are never credited as P&L.`.trim();
shockPortfolio.lastDecision.allocationStatus=`${shockPortfolio.lastDecision.allocationStatus||""} Shock strategy 3: ${shockStage.active} zero-capital observation${shockStage.active===1?"":"s"} active, ${shockShadowActivity.completed} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour outcome${shockShadowActivity.completed===1?"":"s"} graded this cycle, ${shockProfile.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} independent forward events complete; current paper position cap ${(shockProfile.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}% and losses can demote it to zero.`.trim();
const maker=d.makerQuotes!=null?` Maker research: ${d.makerShadowActive||0} zero-capital lock-or-exit observations active; ${d.makerFills||0} verified touches and ${d.makerShadowCompleted||0} outcomes completed this cycle.${makerStats?` Event-clustered ledger: ${makerStats.attempts} attempts / ${makerStats.events} events, ${makerStats.locked} locked pairs, ${makerStats.adverse} immediate adverse exits, ${makerStats.unfilled} unfilled, and ${fmtUSD(makerStats.shadow_pnl)} simulated shadow net.`:""} Capital is disabled because neither the 6,048-rule chronological maker audit nor the reward stress test produced a validated holdout winner. Hypothetical rewards are excluded.`:"";
const sportsPilot=d.sportsFavoritePilot?` Sports forward learner: ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.state}, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.active_shadows||0} zero-capital observations active and ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events} independent closed events, ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.events?`${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}% mean with ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper>=0?"+":""}${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}% 90% interval; `:""}${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.shadow_pnl_per_100||0)} simulated per-$100 net and ${fmtUSD(d.sportsFavoritePilot.pnl)} realized capital P&L. Position cap ${(d.sportsFavoritePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%; capital remains zero until ${SPORTS_FAVORITE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} new independent events establish a positive lower bound.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shock strategy 2: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} 24-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} independent forward events complete. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; 30 positive events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%, while losing evidence disables capital.`:"";
const shockPilot=d.shockFadePilot?` Shock strategy 3: ${d.shockFadePilot.state}, ${d.shockFadePilot.active_shadows||0} ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS}-hour observations active and ${d.shockFadePilot.events}/${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} independent forward events complete. Mean ${(d.shockFadePilot.mean*100).toFixed(2)}%; 90% interval ${(d.shockFadePilot.lower*100).toFixed(2)}% to ${(d.shockFadePilot.upper*100).toFixed(2)}%; ${d.shockFadePilot.expired_ungraded||0} missed windows were discarded. Position cap ${(d.shockFadePilot.position_pct*100).toFixed(2)}%, total cap ${SHOCK_FADE_TOTAL_CAPITAL_PCT*100}%; ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTION_EVENTS} positive events can raise size to ${SHOCK_FADE_PROMOTED_POSITION_PCT*100}%, while losing evidence disables this agent's access.`:"";
return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.${learning}${calibration}${maker}${sportsPilot}${shockPilot}${exposure}${allocation}${candidates}${blockers}`;
const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital 12h sports observations until 30 forward events promote 1.25% positions":cfg.id==="reversal"?"Accelerating 3h longshot shocks; 0.5% initial positions and 1% only after 30 positive forward events":`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; after promotion, capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":cfg.id==="reversal"?"Exit at the executable bid after 24 hours; missed grading windows expire without using a later price"
const cadence=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Zero-capital 12h sports observations until 30 forward events promote 1.25% positions":SHOCK_FADE_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Up to ${SHOCK_FADE_MAX_NEW_PER_AGENT_CYCLE} disjoint 12h shock fades per cycle; 1% initial positions and 1.5% only after 40 positive forward events`:`${cfg.maxNew||0} new trades max per cycle`;
const exitRule=cfg.id==="favorite"?"Grade shadow observations only when Polymarket closes the market; after promotion, capital positions retain the 18% stop and profit locks":SHOCK_FADE_ADOPTER_IDS.has(cfg.id)?`Exit shock positions at the executable bid after ${SHOCK_FADE_EXIT_HOURS} hours; missed grading windows expire without using a later price`
:`Exit after a confirmed reversal, a 12h unconfirmed fade after 48h, a trailing-profit retrace, or ${EXIT_STALE_DAYS}d stale while losing; Politics trends get 72h before ordinary signal exits`;
const thesis=agentPlainBlurb(cfg,st);
const quoteSummary=(p.maker_quotes||[]).slice(0,3).map(quote=>`${quote.shadow_only?"Shadow":"Capital"} · ${quote.question.slice(0,34)}${quote.question.length>34?"...":""}: YES ${pct(quote.yes_quote)} + NO ${pct(quote.no_quote)}${quote.yes_filled_at||quote.no_filled_at?" (one leg touched)":""}`).join("; ");
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the 300-market 60/20/20 adaptive holdout at both 24h and 72h. Shock strategy 2 is narrower: an accelerating 4% three-hour move, 8–25% opposite-side entry, and 24-hour exit. Across 534,894 observations from 2,000 active markets, its one-cent-cost 90% lower bounds were +6.38% train, +2.26% validation, +21.50% chronological holdout, and +2.64% sealed event holdout across 299 partition-events. It begins as a 0.5% paper-capital pilot because resolved archive coverage was unavailable, increases only on positive forward evidence, and demotes on losses. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
historicalPrior:"No broad directional rule survived the 300-market 60/20/20 adaptive holdout at both 24h and 72h. Shock strategy 3 is narrower and more cost-tolerant: fade an accelerating 8% three-hour move and exit after 12 hours. Across 534,894 observations from the first 2,000 active markets, its two-cent-cost, live-matching winsorized 90% lower bounds were +4.01% train, +4.55% validation, +3.63% chronological holdout, and +1.08% event holdout across 417 partition-events. An exact-rule check on the next 1,000 markets kept positive means in all segments and a +0.37% event-holdout lower bound across 61 events, while train and chronological-holdout bounds were slightly inconclusive at -0.17% and -0.89%. The five aggressiveagents may adopt disjoint events at 1% initial size, increase only on positive personal forward evidence, and demote on losses. Resolved archive coverage remains unavailable. Favorite-priced trend remains hard-blocked. Maker capital remains disabled"}),
});
function runEngineSelfTest(){
const market=(overrides={})=>Object.assign({
@@ -5696,42 +5733,58 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
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Theodore Song