From 9fca4e303d31220cec91f4b9e483678c4ed92d83 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Theodore Song Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 18:27:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Make sports forward learner quote aware --- README.md | 25 +++++++------ index.html | 54 ++++++++++++++++++--------- scripts/evaluate-sports-favorites.mjs | 15 +++++++- sw.js | 2 +- 4 files changed, 64 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 37a76b2..eb487c4 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -96,18 +96,19 @@ signals in the walk-forward observation ledger until current, independent-event evidence proves an edge. Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the separate pregame favorite audit. -It anchors decisions to the published game start, rejects stale prices, charges a -modeled five-cent cost, takes only the highest-priced eligible favorite per event, -and uses a chronological 60/20/20 split. The refreshed August 20 run loaded all -3,000 histories with no failures and found zero train-pass rules. The Strategy 57 -24-hour, 60%-85% capital rule averaged -11.98% across 168 independent training -events and -4.04% across 100 untouched holdout events after the five-cent cost, -so Strategy 58 retires it at the next fresh executable mark. The narrower 12-hour, -60%-75% rule had positive point estimates in train, validation, and holdout but -did not establish a positive lower confidence bound in train or holdout. Favorite -Backer therefore records it with zero capital, one market per event, and persists -the pending and completed forward ledger offline. Only 30 new independent closed -events with a positive 90% lower confidence bound can promote 1.25% positions. +It anchors decisions to the published game start, rejects stale prices, takes only +the highest-priced eligible favorite per event, and uses a chronological 60/20/20 +split. The refreshed August 20 run loaded all 3,000 histories with no failures and +found zero train-pass rules. The Strategy 57 24-hour, 60%-85% capital rule was +negative even with zero modeled execution cost, so Strategy 58 retired it. The +narrower 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort stayed positive by point estimate in train, +validation, and holdout at a one-cent cost, but the train and holdout confidence +bounds still crossed zero; its holdout point estimate also turned negative near a +two-cent cost. Build 74 therefore records only zero-capital observations whose +executable ask plus a 0.25-cent slippage buffer is no more than one cent above the +midpoint. It persists the pending and completed forward ledger offline, grades +only closed markets, and requires 30 new independent closed events with a positive +90% lower confidence bound before 1.25% positions can begin. Run `npm run evaluate:settlement-calibration` for the stricter settlement-bias search across up to 5,000 resolved markets. It uses a 60/20/20 chronological diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 45d7dc7..e7f19c7 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color