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Prioritize capital-efficient independent bundles
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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
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allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
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expires after 24 hours.
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Build 120 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
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Build 121 targets five-minute slots with a serialized, self-chained GitHub Actions runtime.
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It continues from the previous agent snapshot and runs the next due paper cycle
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even when no browser is open. After each successful cycle, one repo-scoped
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workflow dispatch waits for the next five-minute boundary; one concurrency group
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@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ Polymarket event key. Related Ethereum or Bitcoin contracts cannot create
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several simultaneous copies of one move, and outcomes from the same underlying
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three-hour shock window count as one learner event.
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Each Build 120 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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Each Build 121 cycle also scans the 1,000 most-active Polymarket events for
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complete negative-risk bundles and logically nested threshold or deadline
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pairs. Gamma's market-specific fee flag replaces the old blanket 0.5-cent fee
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reserve for markets declared fee-free. The closest 60 structures are then
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@@ -69,7 +69,11 @@ paper order up to a $400 verified-notional ceiling. The scanner applies each mar
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consumed ask level and checks the CLOB fee-rate endpoint for a matching enabled
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or fee-free state. Any opened position is capped to the exact equal-unit size
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of the largest fill that stays profitable and passes this depth test; portfolio
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cash, reserve, and 4% limits can reduce it further. Existing paper bundles are
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cash, reserve, and 4% limits can reduce it further. Strategy 64 ranks verified
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structures by net return per expected locked day before raw edge, and caps active
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cost from one underlying event at 12% of Value Hunter equity. This prevents
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several related threshold pairs from monopolizing the non-directional book while
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preserving every already-open complete bundle until settlement. Existing paper bundles are
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never retroactively enlarged against depth their original simulated fill would
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already have consumed. A bundle can enter Value Discipline only when that fee check
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passes and the resulting worst-case payout clears both the three-tenths-cent
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@@ -79,7 +83,7 @@ The Suggestions view stores scan, depth, fee, actionable, and closest
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executable-margin counts so an empty lane is evidence rather than an ambiguous
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failure.
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Build 120 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
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Build 121 retains the directional learner's exact-fee policy, which replaced the blanket half-cent cost with
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the market's Gamma fee schedule at both the entry and future checkpoint, plus a
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separate half-cent round-trip slippage allowance. Fee-free markets pay only the
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slippage allowance; an unavailable fee schedule gets a conservative four-cent
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@@ -90,7 +94,7 @@ available at reduced weight. The exact-fee replay covered the top 1,000
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active markets and 208 independent events: broad trends, reversals, and
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favorite trends all had 90% upper bounds below zero at 12 hours. A separate
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3,000-recently-closed-market study tested 297 one-decision-per-event settlement
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rules and found zero robust positive rule. Strategy 63 retains online
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rules and found zero robust positive rule. Strategy 64 retains online
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directional evidence under fee policy 2. A separate probation gate can now use
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capital after at least 12 current-policy independent events produce a net-of-cost
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six-hour lower confidence bound above 1% for every required cohort feature. It
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@@ -100,7 +104,7 @@ Every probation position exits at the matching six-hour executable bid and keeps
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the 18% stop policy active. Normal directional sizing remains locked until the
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same cohort independently passes both the 24-hour and 72-hour promotion gates.
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Build 120 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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Build 121 retains Build 100's retirement of the old 3-6 day resolution-window
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capital permission. That audit clustered confidence by event but still averaged
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several correlated contracts inside each event, while production could choose
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only one. The corrected replay chooses the highest-volume eligible contract per event and
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@@ -220,9 +224,9 @@ evidence proves an edge.
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Run `npm run evaluate:sports-favorites` for the retired pregame favorite audit.
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Its 12-hour, 60%-75% cohort had positive point estimates but did not establish a
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reliable confidence bound, so Build 120 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
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reliable confidence bound, so Build 121 no longer allocates capital to that rule.
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Strategy 63 also uses the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
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Strategy 64 also uses the exact-fee settlement calibration's three-day Sports
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NO cohort as a bounded paper exploration lane. The corrected 5,000-market run
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groups every prop with the same dated contest slug, anchors the decision to the
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published game start, and keeps only the highest-priced eligible NO contract per
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@@ -348,7 +352,7 @@ Strategy 54 gives previously opened Politics trend positions that 72-hour observ
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ordinary signal exits. Stops, profit locks, settlement handling, and risk-budget
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reductions remain immediate.
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Strategy 63 retains exact Gamma entry and exit taker fees plus a half-cent
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Strategy 64 retains exact Gamma entry and exit taker fees plus a half-cent
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slippage allowance when grading each live walk-forward signal. Confidence uses the largest independent matching bucket,
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not the sum of five overlapping feature buckets, and evidence from older engine
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versions is down-weighted. This prevents a handful of duplicated observations
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