Make stale offline cycles mark-only

README.md

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://polymarket-site-eta.vercel.app/personal.html
 
 The site fetches live Polymarket markets, generates agent suggestions, lets you
 run frequent paper cycles, and syncs the shared arena state through Neon or
-Vercel Blob. Engine v40 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
+Vercel Blob. Engine v41 also installs an offline app shell and caches timestamped
 market snapshots. During an outage, cycles continue locally; cached entries are
 allowed for 90 minutes, older snapshots become mark-only, and all cached data
 expires after 24 hours.
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ small samples toward neutral, caps sizing changes to 0.68x-1.30x, and reserves
 15% of candidates for deterministic exploration so a stale regime cannot become
 permanent.
 
-Engine v40 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the
+Engine v41 treats each binary stake as capable of falling to zero even when the
 18% stop cannot fill. New core positions are capped at 2.5%-4% of equity and
 aggressive positions at 3%-5%, with lower limits for near-term, extreme-price,
 reversal, and fast-moving setups. Oversized positions inherited from older
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ evidence. Set `EVAL_MARKETS`, `EVAL_CONCURRENCY`, `EVAL_HORIZONS`, or
 `EVAL_COST_CENTS` to change the audit.
 The first 80-market audit found that reversal signals lost 4.34% on average in
 both chronological partitions, while crypto and longshot samples were also
-negative overall. Engine v40 therefore blocks reversal and sports-trend entries outside the fixed
+negative overall. Engine v41 therefore blocks reversal and sports-trend entries outside the fixed
 15% exploration lane and applies modest sizing penalties to crypto and longshots.
 It does not boost any rule from this audit because no positive rule was robust
 across the chronological split.
@@ -66,22 +66,29 @@ segment and averaged -4.13%. Sports trends were negative in train and test and
 averaged -3.53% at 72 hours. Politics trends were the sole cohort with positive
 row-level returns in all three 72-hour segments, but its market-cluster interval
 still crossed zero; that supports a longer hold test, not a larger entry bet.
-Engine v40 gives Politics trend positions that 72-hour observation window before
+Engine v41 gives Politics trend positions that 72-hour observation window before
 ordinary signal exits. Stops, profit locks, settlement handling, and risk-budget
 reductions remain immediate.
 
-Engine v40 also subtracts a half-cent round-trip cost when grading each live
+Engine v41 also subtracts a half-cent round-trip cost when grading each live
 walk-forward signal. Confidence uses the largest independent matching bucket,
 not the sum of five overlapping feature buckets, and evidence from older engine
 versions is down-weighted. This prevents a handful of duplicated observations
 from authorizing larger positions or hiding a modest negative regime.
 
-Engine v40 adds uncertainty-aware promotion and demotion. A matching setup must
+Engine v41 adds uncertainty-aware promotion and demotion. A matching setup must
 accumulate at least eight effective observations and agree across at least two
 feature views before repeatable positive evidence can increase size or repeatable
 negative evidence can block a new entry. Mixed evidence stays close to neutral
 instead of being mistaken for an edge.
 
+Engine v41 enforces the documented offline boundary end to end. Cached snapshots
+under 90 minutes old may continue paper execution. Older snapshots remain usable
+for valuation and chart snapshots for up to 24 hours, but cannot trigger entries,
+stop-losses, gain-stops, risk rebalances, settlements, or policy exits. Network
+requests have bounded timeouts so a weak connection falls back to cache instead
+of leaving a cycle hanging indefinitely.
+
 Run `npm run evaluate:settlements` to evaluate fixed decisions made 1, 3, 7,
 14, 30, and 90 days before known binary settlements. The audit uses one
 observation per resolved market and horizon, includes losing contracts at zero,

index.html

@@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <nav class="topnav">
     <div class="brand">
       <div class="logo">🏆</div>
-      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive offline engine · v40</div></div>
+      <div><div class="brand-name">Polymarket Arena</div><div class="brand-sub">10 agents · 5 core + 5 aggressive</div><div class="build-badge">Adaptive offline engine · v41</div></div>
     </div>
     <div class="tabs" id="tabs">
       <button class="tab" data-tab="overview">Overview</button>
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   <div class="personal-banner" id="personalBanner">
     <b>Personal research mode.</b> This copy is for your own analysis, paper tracking, and manual trade research only. It does not pool money, onboard investors, custody funds, bypass eligibility rules, or place orders without your manual approval.
   </div>
-  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build v40 active:</b> adaptive sizing now requires repeatable net-positive evidence with uncertainty bounds. Repeatable net-negative cohorts are blocked, mixed cohorts stay near neutral while learning, and older engines remain down-weighted. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
+  <div class="live-build-banner"><b>Build v41 active:</b> adaptive sizing requires repeatable evidence, and offline execution now has a hard freshness boundary. Snapshots under 90 minutes may trade; older snapshots are mark-only and cannot open, stop, scale out, rebalance, settle, or close positions. This remains paper trading; profits are not guaranteed.</div>
 
   <!-- ============ OVERVIEW ============ -->
   <section class="tabpanel" data-tab="overview">
@@ -425,7 +425,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
       <div class="card-h"><h3>Returns — all agents</h3><div><span class="small muted">$10,000 start each</span><div class="rangebar" data-chart-ranges></div></div></div>
       <div class="chart-wrap"><svg id="chart2" viewBox="0 0 960 320" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet"></svg></div>
       <div class="legend" id="comboLegend2"></div>
-      <div class="small muted" style="margin-top:10px">The initial week is an approximate historical replay using prices available on each day and current liquidity as a proxy. The v40 return starts from live cycles only.</div>
+      <div class="small muted" style="margin-top:10px">The initial week is an approximate historical replay using prices available on each day and current liquidity as a proxy. The v41 return starts from live cycles only.</div>
     </div>
   </section>
 
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color
   </section>
 
   <footer>
-    Build adaptive-offline-v40 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
+    Build adaptive-offline-v41 · Paper trading only · Live prices from Polymarket's public Gamma API · Not financial advice ·
     <a class="market-link" href="https://github.com/theodore-song/polymarket-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Source on GitHub</a>
   </footer>
 </div>
@@ -774,7 +774,7 @@ const POLITICS_TREND_MIN_HOLD_HOURS = 72;
 const EXIT_CONFIRM_HOURS = 6;
 const AGENTS_KEY = "pma_agents_v2";
 const SUG_KEY = "pma_suggestions_v5";
-const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 40;
+const SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION = 41;
 const FOCUS_KEY = "pma_focus_v1";
 const VIEW_KEY = "pma_view_v1";
 const PF_SORT_KEY = "pma_portfolio_sort_v1";
@@ -912,6 +912,8 @@ const todayStr = () => {const p=partsInLocalTime();return `${p.year}-${p.month}-
 const RUN_INTERVAL_MS = 60000;
 const OFFLINE_ENTRY_MAX_AGE_MS = 90*60*1000;
 const OFFLINE_CACHE_MAX_AGE_MS = 24*60*60*1000;
+const NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS = 8000;
+const PRICE_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS = 4000;
 const SIGNAL_EVAL_HOURS = 12;
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_PENDING_LIMIT = 300;
 const SIGNAL_LEDGER_OUTCOME_LIMIT = 500;
@@ -935,6 +937,22 @@ function toast(msg){
 }
 function setStatus(text,live){$("statusText").textContent=text;$("statusDot").classList.toggle("live",!!live);}
 
+async function fetchWithTimeout(url,options={},timeoutMs=NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS){
+  const controller=new AbortController(),timer=setTimeout(()=>controller.abort(),timeoutMs);
+  try{return await fetch(url,Object.assign({},options,{signal:controller.signal}));}
+  finally{clearTimeout(timer);}
+}
+async function mapWithConcurrency(items,limit,mapper){
+  const input=[...(items||[])],results=new Array(input.length),workers=[];
+  let cursor=0;
+  const work=async()=>{
+    while(cursor<input.length){const index=cursor++;results[index]=await mapper(input[index],index);}
+  };
+  for(let i=0;i<Math.min(Math.max(1,limit),input.length);i++)workers.push(work());
+  await Promise.all(workers);
+  return results;
+}
+
 /* ---------- Polymarket client ---------- */
 function parseJsonField(v){if(v==null)return [];if(Array.isArray(v))return v;try{return JSON.parse(v);}catch(e){return [];}}
 function toNum(v,d=0){const n=Number(v);return Number.isFinite(n)?n:d;}
@@ -987,7 +1005,7 @@ async function fetchMarkets(pages=Infinity,perPage=100,onProgress=null){
     }else{
       params.set("offset",String(i*perPage));
     }
-    const r=await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets${useKeyset?"/keyset":""}?${params}`);
+    const r=await fetchWithTimeout(`${GAMMA}/markets${useKeyset?"/keyset":""}?${params}`);
     if(!r.ok){if(i===0)throw new Error("Polymarket API "+r.status);break;}
     const page=await r.json();
     const raw=useKeyset?(page.markets||[]):page;
@@ -1006,7 +1024,7 @@ async function fetchMarkets(pages=Infinity,perPage=100,onProgress=null){
   return all.map(normalizeMarket).filter(m=>m&&m.question);
 }
 async function fetchMarketPrice(id){
-  try{const r=await fetch(`${GAMMA}/markets/${id}`);if(!r.ok)return null;return normalizeMarket(await r.json(),{allowClosed:true});}
+  try{const r=await fetchWithTimeout(`${GAMMA}/markets/${id}`,{},PRICE_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS);if(!r.ok)return null;return normalizeMarket(await r.json(),{allowClosed:true});}
   catch(e){return null;}
 }
 
@@ -1089,10 +1107,10 @@ function textEvidenceSignal(m,external={}){
 async function fetchRealWorldSignals(markets){
   const selected=[...markets].sort((a,b)=>(b.volume_24hr-a.volume_24hr)||(b.volume-a.volume)).slice(0,REAL_WORLD_SIGNAL_LIMIT);
   try{
-    const r=await fetch("/api/live",{method:"POST",headers:{"Content-Type":"application/json"},body:JSON.stringify({
+    const r=await fetchWithTimeout("/api/live",{method:"POST",headers:{"Content-Type":"application/json"},body:JSON.stringify({
       action:"market_context",
       markets:selected.map(m=>({id:m.id,question:m.question,category:m.category,tags:m.tags})),
-    })});
+    })},NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS);
     const d=await r.json().catch(()=>({}));
     if(!r.ok||!d.ok)return {};
     return d.signals||{};
@@ -1398,8 +1416,10 @@ function loadMarketCache(){
 }
 function offlineCachePolicy(ageMs){
   const age=Number(ageMs);
-  return {usable:Number.isFinite(age)&&age>=0&&age<=OFFLINE_CACHE_MAX_AGE_MS,
+  const usable=Number.isFinite(age)&&age>=0&&age<=OFFLINE_CACHE_MAX_AGE_MS;
-    entriesAllowed:Number.isFinite(age)&&age>=0&&age<=OFFLINE_ENTRY_MAX_AGE_MS};
+  const executionAllowed=usable&&age<=OFFLINE_ENTRY_MAX_AGE_MS;
+  return {usable,entriesAllowed:executionAllowed,exitsAllowed:executionAllowed,
+    markOnly:usable&&!executionAllowed};
 }
 function collectSyncItems(){const items={};SYNC_KEYS.forEach(k=>{const v=localStorage.getItem(k);if(v!=null)items[k]=v;});return compactSyncItems(items);}
 function applySyncItems(items){
@@ -1418,7 +1438,7 @@ function stateFromSyncItems(items){
 }
 async function pushCloudState(force=false){
   try{
-    const r=await fetch("/api/state",{method:"POST",headers:{"Content-Type":"application/json"},body:JSON.stringify({items:collectSyncItems(),force})});
+    const r=await fetchWithTimeout("/api/state",{method:"POST",headers:{"Content-Type":"application/json"},body:JSON.stringify({items:collectSyncItems(),force})},NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS);
     if(r.status===409){
       const d=await r.json().catch(()=>null);
       if(d&&d.state&&d.state.items)applySyncItems(d.state.items);
@@ -1433,7 +1453,7 @@ async function pushCloudState(force=false){
 }
 async function pullCloudState(){
   try{
-    const r=await fetch("/api/state",{cache:"no-store"});
+    const r=await fetchWithTimeout("/api/state",{cache:"no-store"},NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS);
     if(!r.ok)return {ok:false,state:null};
     const d=await r.json();
     return {ok:true,state:(d&&d.state)||null,degraded:Boolean(d&&d.degraded),error:d&&d.error};
@@ -1990,7 +2010,7 @@ function exitReason(pos,fresh,analysis,cfg){
   }else delete pos.signal_fade_since;
   return null;
 }
-function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false}={}){
+function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false,executeTrades=true}={}){
   const stillOpen=[];
   for(const pos of p.positions){
     const fresh=priceMap[pos.market_id];
@@ -2003,7 +2023,8 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false}={}){
     pos.current_price=+price.toFixed(4);pos.value=+(pos.shares*price).toFixed(2);
     pos.unrealized_pnl=+(pos.value-pos.cost).toFixed(2);
     pos.peak_price=+Math.max(Number(pos.peak_price||pos.entry_price||price),price).toFixed(4);
-    delete pos.price_status;
+    if(executeTrades)delete pos.price_status;else pos.price_status="cached-mark-only";
+    if(!executeTrades){stillOpen.push(pos);continue;}
     for(const stopTier of triggeredStopLosses(pos))scaleStopLossPosition(p,pos,stopTier);
     if(pos._closedByStop){delete pos._closedByStop;continue;}
     for(const gainTier of triggeredGainStops(pos))takeProfitPosition(p,pos,gainTier);
@@ -2362,7 +2383,8 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
       cacheAgeMs=cache?cache.age_ms:Infinity;
       if(!sugs.length||!offlineCachePolicy(cacheAgeMs).usable)throw new Error("No usable market snapshot is cached yet. Connect once to seed offline mode.");
       runMode="offline-cache";
-      setStatus(`offline snapshot · ${Math.max(1,Math.round(cacheAgeMs/60000))}m old`,false);
+      const cachePolicy=offlineCachePolicy(cacheAgeMs);
+      setStatus(`${cachePolicy.markOnly?"offline mark-only":"offline snapshot"} · ${Math.max(1,Math.round(cacheAgeMs/60000))}m old`,false);
     }
     st=loadState();
     const emailOffsets=agentHistoryOffsets(st);
@@ -2376,23 +2398,25 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
     const cachedById={};
     (analysisMarkets||[]).forEach(m=>{cachedById[String(m.id)]=m;});
     Object.entries((cache&&cache.price_map)||{}).forEach(([id,m])=>{cachedById[String(id)]=m;});
-    for(const id of ids){
+    const freshPrices=runMode==="live"
-      let fresh=null;
+      ?await mapWithConcurrency([...ids],12,async id=>[String(id),await fetchMarketPrice(id)])
-      if(runMode==="live")fresh=await fetchMarketPrice(id);
+      :[];
-      priceMap[id]=fresh||cachedById[String(id)]||null;
+    const freshById=Object.fromEntries(freshPrices);
-    }
+    for(const id of ids)priceMap[id]=freshById[String(id)]||cachedById[String(id)]||null;
     if(runMode==="live")saveMarketCache(analysisMarkets,sugs,priceMap);
     if(runMode==="live")updateSignalLedger(st,analysisMarkets,sugs);
     const marketLearning=buildSignalCalibration(st.signal_ledger);
     setStatus("ten strategy agents trading…",true);
     const preBoard=AGENTS.map(a=>({id:a.id,eq:equity(st.agents[a.id])})).sort((x,y)=>y.eq-x.eq);
     const leaderEq=preBoard[0]?preBoard[0].eq:STARTING_BALANCE;
+    const cachePolicy=offlineCachePolicy(cacheAgeMs);
+    const executeTrades=runMode==="live"||cachePolicy.exitsAllowed;
     for(const cfg of AGENTS){
       const p=st.agents[cfg.id];
-      markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:true});
+      markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:executeTrades,executeTrades});
     }
-    reduceStrategyOverlap(st);
+    if(executeTrades)reduceStrategyOverlap(st);
-    const entriesAllowed=runMode==="live"||offlineCachePolicy(cacheAgeMs).entriesAllowed;
+    const entriesAllowed=runMode==="live"||cachePolicy.entriesAllowed;
     const cycleSuggestions=entriesAllowed?sugs:sugs.map(s=>Object.assign({},s,{trade_ready:false,watch_only:true}));
     const claimedMarkets=new Set();
     for(const cfg of strategyExecutionOrder(st)){
@@ -2406,13 +2430,14 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){
     }
     st.date=todayStr();st.last_run=SNAP_TS;st.last_cycle_hour=hour;st.run_mode=runMode;
     st.offline_cache_age_minutes=runMode==="offline-cache"?Math.round(cacheAgeMs/60000):0;
+    st.offline_execution_mode=runMode==="live"?"live":(executeTrades?"fresh-cache":"mark-only");
     st.pending_sync=!cloud.ok;
     const emailEvents=collectNewAgentEvents(st,emailOffsets);
     saveState(st);
     const pushed=cloud.ok?await pushCloudState():false;
-    if(pushed){st.pending_sync=false;saveState(st);setStatus(runMode==="live"?"up to date":"offline cycle synced",false);await notifyTradeDigest(emailEvents);}
+    if(pushed){st.pending_sync=false;saveState(st);setStatus(runMode==="live"?"up to date":(executeTrades?"offline cycle synced":"offline mark-only synced"),false);await notifyTradeDigest(emailEvents);}
-    else{st.pending_sync=true;saveState(st);setStatus(`${runMode==="live"?"live data":"offline cycle"} · saved locally`,false);}
+    else{st.pending_sync=true;saveState(st);setStatus(`${runMode==="live"?"live data":(executeTrades?"offline cycle":"offline mark-only")} · saved locally`,false);}
-    return {suggestions:sugs.length,offline:runMode!=="live",pendingSync:!pushed,entriesAllowed};
+    return {suggestions:sugs.length,offline:runMode!=="live",pendingSync:!pushed,entriesAllowed,executeTrades};
   }finally{SNAP_TS=null;CYCLE_RUNNING=false;}
 }
 
@@ -4156,7 +4181,8 @@ window.PMA_ENGINE_DIAGNOSTICS=Object.freeze({
     coreTradeLossPct:MAX_CORE_TRADE_LOSS_PCT*100,aggressiveTradeLossPct:MAX_AGGRESSIVE_TRADE_LOSS_PCT*100,
     coreGapTradeLossPct:MAX_CORE_GAP_TRADE_LOSS_PCT*100,aggressiveGapTradeLossPct:MAX_AGGRESSIVE_GAP_TRADE_LOSS_PCT*100,
     offlineEntryMaxAgeMinutes:OFFLINE_ENTRY_MAX_AGE_MS/60000,offlineCacheMaxAgeHours:OFFLINE_CACHE_MAX_AGE_MS/3600000,explorationPct:15,
-    signalRoundTripCostCents:SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST*100,independentConfidence:true,uncertaintyGatedCalibration:true,
+    networkTimeoutSeconds:NETWORK_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS/1000,priceTimeoutSeconds:PRICE_REQUEST_TIMEOUT_MS/1000,
+    staleCacheIsMarkOnly:true,signalRoundTripCostCents:SIGNAL_ROUND_TRIP_COST*100,independentConfidence:true,uncertaintyGatedCalibration:true,
     historicalPrior:"reversal and sports trends blocked outside exploration; crypto, longshots, and YES sized down"}),
 });
 function runEngineSelfTest(){
@@ -4244,6 +4270,13 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
   const historicalFeatures=historicalPriceFeatures(historyFixture,"2026-01-08",0.55);
   const backtestNoLookahead=priceOnDay({"2026-01-09":0.90},"2026-01-08",null)===null
     &&historicalFeatures.price_change_1h===0&&historicalFeatures.price_change_1d===0.05&&historicalFeatures.price_change_1w===0.15;
+  const markOnlyBook=defaultPortfolio();markOnlyBook.cash=9500;
+  markOnlyBook.positions=[{market_id:"offline-mark",question:"Offline mark",side:"YES",shares:1000,entry_price:0.5,current_price:0.5,cost:500,value:500,
+    original_shares:1000,original_cost:500,unrealized_pnl:0,opened_at:hoursAgo(48),strategy_version:SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION,quality:"confirmed",signal_type:"trend",gain_stops:{},stop_losses:{}}];
+  markToMarket(markOnlyBook,{"offline-mark":market({id:"offline-mark",yes_price:0.8,no_price:0.2})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:false,executeTrades:false});
+  const executableBook=JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(markOnlyBook));
+  delete executableBook.positions[0].price_status;
+  markToMarket(executableBook,{"offline-mark":market({id:"offline-mark",yes_price:0.8,no_price:0.2})},AGENTS[0],{policyExits:true,executeTrades:true});
   return {version:SUGGESTION_ENGINE_VERSION,
     trend:{ready:trend.trade_ready,quality:trend.quality,side:trend.side,margin:trend.net_edge},
     noSignal:{ready:noSignal.trade_ready,quality:noSignal.quality,signal:noSignal.signal_type,margin:noSignal.net_edge},
@@ -4266,7 +4299,10 @@ function runEngineSelfTest(){
       legacyLossDoesNotFreezeCurrentEngine:legacyLossDecision.mode!=="Loss Regime Containment"},
     riskBudget:{core:coreRiskBudget,aggressiveGap:aggressiveGapBudget,boundedStake:boundedStakeForRisk(10000,1000,riskCfg,{entry_price:0.82,days_to_resolution:5,price_change_1d:0.06}),
       legacyNormalizedValue:riskPos.value,equityPreserved:+equity(riskBook).toFixed(2),capsBinaryGap:aggressiveGapBudget===0.03&&riskPos.value<=300.01},
-    offline:{fresh:offlineCachePolicy(30*60000),staleEntry:offlineCachePolicy(3*3600000),expired:offlineCachePolicy(25*3600000)},
+    offline:{fresh:offlineCachePolicy(30*60000),staleEntry:offlineCachePolicy(3*3600000),expired:offlineCachePolicy(25*3600000),
+      staleMarkUpdatesValue:markOnlyBook.positions.length===1&&markOnlyBook.positions[0].value===800,
+      staleMarkPreservesTrades:markOnlyBook.positions.length===1&&markOnlyBook.positions[0].shares===1000&&markOnlyBook.cash===9500&&markOnlyBook.positions[0].price_status==="cached-mark-only",
+      freshSnapshotExecutesRules:executableBook.positions.length===1&&executableBook.positions[0].shares<1000&&executableBook.cash>9500},
     exits:{youngConflict:exitReason(young,fresh,conflict,AGENTS[0]),matureConflict:exitReason(mature,fresh,conflict,AGENTS[0]),
       politicsEarlyConflict:exitReason(politicsEarly,fresh,conflict,AGENTS[0]),politicsMatureConflict:exitReason(politicsMature,fresh,conflict,AGENTS[0]),trailing:trailingProfitReason(trailing)},
     backtest:{noLookahead:backtestNoLookahead,features:historicalFeatures},
@@ -4282,7 +4318,7 @@ initProviderConfig();
 refreshTradeEmailStatus();
 $("runBtn").addEventListener("click",async()=>{
   const btn=$("runBtn");btn.disabled=true;btn.textContent="Running…";
-  try{const r=await runDailyCycle();const b=board();toast(r.busy?`Cycle already running · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:r.skipped?`Already ran this minute · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:`${r.offline?"Offline":"Live"} cycle done${r.pendingSync?" · sync queued":""} · ${r.suggestions} ideas · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`);renderAll();}
+  try{const r=await runDailyCycle();const b=board(),mode=r.offline?(r.executeTrades?"Offline":"Mark-only"):"Live";toast(r.busy?`Cycle already running · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:r.skipped?`Already ran this minute · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`:`${mode} cycle done${r.pendingSync?" · sync queued":""} · ${r.suggestions} ideas · ${b[0].c.emoji} ${b[0].c.name} leads`);renderAll();}
   catch(e){toast("Run failed: "+e.message);setStatus("error",false);}
   btn.disabled=false;btn.textContent="Run cycle";
 });

sw.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-v40";
+const CACHE_NAME = "polymarket-arena-v41";
 const APP_SHELL = ["/", "/index.html", "/personal.html", "/cycle-worker.js"];
 
 self.addEventListener("install", event => {