From 8f7262238b5e6305bcc6d933cf8b0f79bf733dc0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Theodore Song Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:50:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Add peer-aware emotional agent behavior --- index.html | 76 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 65 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index e8767cc..dc574a1 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -726,7 +726,7 @@ footer{margin-top:34px;padding-top:22px;border-top:1px solid var(--border);color @@ -1143,9 +1143,19 @@ function recentReturnDelta(p){ if(snaps.length<2)return 0; return (snaps[snaps.length-1].return_pct||0)-(snaps[0].return_pct||0); } +function emotionalState(ret,trail,trend,rank){ + if(ret<-18)return {mood:"alarmed",urgency:0.95,label:"Crisis pressure"}; + if(ret<-8&&trail>10)return {mood:"frustrated",urgency:0.82,label:"Comeback urgency"}; + if(trail>14)return {mood:"impatient",urgency:0.78,label:"Leaderboard envy"}; + if(trend>2)return {mood:"confident",urgency:0.62,label:"Hot hand"}; + if(rank===1)return {mood:"protective",urgency:0.38,label:"Defending lead"}; + if(ret<0)return {mood:"restless",urgency:0.58,label:"Need progress"}; + return {mood:"focused",urgency:0.50,label:"Focused"}; +} function adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,total,leaderEq){ const eq=equity(p),ret=(eq/p.starting_balance-1)*100,trail=((leaderEq||eq)-eq)/p.starting_balance*100; const trend=recentReturnDelta(p); + const emo=emotionalState(ret,trail,trend,rank); let minConv=cfg.minConv??0,maxNew=cfg.maxNew??12,maxFrac=cfg.maxFrac??0.34,reserve=0.07,mode="Balanced",reason="following its base strategy while keeping enough cash for better entries."; if(rank===1){ mode="Defend";minConv+=3;maxNew=Math.max(2,maxNew-1);maxFrac*=0.88;reserve=0.10; @@ -1165,9 +1175,19 @@ function adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,total,leaderEq){ mode="Crisis Guard";minConv+=12;maxNew=1;maxFrac=Math.min(maxFrac*0.45,0.035);reserve=0.20; reason="down more than 18%, so it stops chasing, keeps more cash, and only allows one high-conviction recovery trade."; } + if(emo.mood==="impatient"||emo.mood==="frustrated"){ + minConv-=2;maxNew+=1;maxFrac*=1.08;reserve=Math.max(0.04,reserve-0.015); + reason+=` Emotion layer: ${emo.label.toLowerCase()} makes it seek extra upside, but only inside the caps.`; + }else if(emo.mood==="confident"){ + maxNew+=1;maxFrac*=1.05; + reason+=` Emotion layer: confidence lets it press winners a little harder.`; + }else if(emo.mood==="alarmed"){ + maxNew=1;maxFrac=Math.min(maxFrac,0.035);reserve=Math.max(reserve,0.20); + reason+=` Emotion layer: alarm keeps it from revenge trading.`; + } if((p.cash/Math.max(eq,1))<0.12){maxNew=Math.max(1,Math.min(maxNew,2));reason+=" Cash is tight, so new entries are rationed.";} const maxCap=cfg.kind==="whale"?0.34:0.12; - return {mode,reason,minConv:Math.max(0,Math.round(minConv)),maxNew:Math.max(1,Math.round(maxNew)),maxFrac:+Math.min(maxCap,Math.max(0.01,maxFrac)).toFixed(3),reserve}; + return {mode,reason,emotion:emo.mood,urgency:+emo.urgency.toFixed(2),minConv:Math.max(0,Math.round(minConv)),maxNew:Math.max(1,Math.round(maxNew)),maxFrac:+Math.min(maxCap,Math.max(0.01,maxFrac)).toFixed(3),reserve}; } const stopKey=(posOrId)=>typeof posOrId==="string"?posOrId:String(posOrId.asset||posOrId.market_id||""); const hasStoppedToday=(p,posOrId)=>p.stopped&&p.stopped[stopKey(posOrId)]===logDay(); @@ -1343,12 +1363,41 @@ function markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg=null,{policyExits=false}={}){ } p.positions=stillOpen; } -function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){ +function peerMarketStats(st,selfId){ + const stats={}; + AGENTS.forEach(a=>{ + if(a.id===selfId)return; + const p=st.agents&&st.agents[a.id]; if(!p)return; + const ret=(equity(p)/Math.max(p.starting_balance||STARTING_BALANCE,1)-1)*100; + (p.positions||[]).forEach(pos=>{ + const id=pos.market_id||pos.asset; if(!id)return; + const key=`${id}:${pos.side}`; + const opp=`${id}:${pos.side==="YES"?"NO":"YES"}`; + if(!stats[key])stats[key]={same:0,samePnl:0,bestRet:-Infinity,names:[]}; + stats[key].same++;stats[key].samePnl+=Number(pos.unrealized_pnl||0);stats[key].bestRet=Math.max(stats[key].bestRet,ret);stats[key].names.push(a.name); + if(!stats[opp])stats[opp]={same:0,samePnl:0,bestRet:-Infinity,names:[]}; + stats[opp].opposite=(stats[opp].opposite||0)+1; + stats[opp].oppositePnl=(stats[opp].oppositePnl||0)+Number(pos.unrealized_pnl||0); + }); + }); + return stats; +} +function peerAdjustedSuggestion(s,peer){ + const m=(peer&&peer[`${s.market_id}:${s.side}`])||{}; + let boost=0,peerNote=""; + if(m.same&&m.samePnl>50){boost+=Math.min(8,2+m.same*1.5);peerNote=`peer confirmation from ${m.names.slice(0,3).join(", ")}`;} + if(m.same&&m.samePnl< -50){boost-=Math.min(10,3+m.same*2);peerNote=`peer warning: same-side holders are losing`;} + if(m.opposite&&m.oppositePnl>50){boost-=Math.min(12,4+m.opposite*2);peerNote=`peer warning: opposite-side holders are winning`;} + if(m.bestRet>8&&m.same){boost+=3;peerNote=peerNote||`leaderboard winner also owns this side`;} + return Object.assign({},s,{peer_boost:boost,peer_note:peerNote,peer_conviction:+(Number(s.conviction||0)+boost).toFixed(1)}); +} +function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds,peerStats=null){ const d=decision||{minConv:cfg.minConv,maxNew:cfg.maxNew,maxFrac:cfg.maxFrac,reserve:0.05}; p.lastDecision=decision||null; if((p.positions||[]).length>=MAX_STRATEGY_POSITIONS)return []; - const cands=rankedSugs.filter(s=>(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.conviction>=d.minConv - &&Math.abs(s.edge)>=MIN_ENTRY_EDGE&&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&!hasStoppedToday(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus)); + const cands=rankedSugs.map(s=>peerAdjustedSuggestion(s,peerStats)).filter(s=>(s.side==="YES"||s.side==="NO")&&s.peer_conviction>=d.minConv + &&Math.abs(s.edge)>=MIN_ENTRY_EDGE&&!hasPosition(p,s.market_id)&&!hasStoppedToday(p,s.market_id)&&(focus==="All"||!focus||s.category===focus)) + .sort((a,b)=>(b.peer_conviction-a.peer_conviction)||((b.peer_boost||0)-(a.peer_boost||0))); const avoid=avoidMarketIds||new Set(); const ordered=cands.filter(s=>!avoid.has(s.market_id)).concat(cands.filter(s=>avoid.has(s.market_id))); let opened=0,openedIds=[]; @@ -1359,7 +1408,9 @@ function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){ if(investable<=50)break; let frac; if(cfg.flat){frac=d.maxFrac;} - else{const base=(s.conviction/100)*Math.min(1,Math.abs(s.edge)/EDGE_SCALE);frac=Math.min(d.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);} + else{const base=(s.peer_conviction/100)*Math.min(1,Math.abs(s.edge)/EDGE_SCALE);frac=Math.min(d.maxFrac,cfg.kelly*base);} + if(s.peer_boost<0)frac*=0.82; + if(s.peer_boost>0&&decision&&decision.urgency>0.65)frac*=1.08; let stake=Math.min(eq*frac,investable); if(stake<50)continue; const entry=s.entry_price; if(entry<=0||entry>=1)continue; @@ -1369,10 +1420,11 @@ function openPositions(p,cfg,rankedSugs,focus,decision,avoidMarketIds){ p.positions.push({market_id:s.market_id,question:s.question,side:s.side,shares, token_id:(s.side==="YES"?s.clob_yes:s.clob_no)||null, entry_price:+entry.toFixed(4),current_price:+entry.toFixed(4),cost,value:cost, - original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:cycleIso(),url:s.url||"", + original_shares:shares,original_cost:cost,unrealized_pnl:0,conviction:s.peer_conviction,category:s.category,opened_at:cycleIso(),url:s.url||"", + peer_note:s.peer_note||"", gain_stops:{},stop_losses:{}}); p.history.push({date:logDay(),action:"OPEN",question:s.question,side:s.side, - detail:`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}`}); + detail:`${decision?decision.mode+" mode — ":""}Bought ${shares} ${s.side} '${s.question.slice(0,40)}' @ ${pct(entry)} for ${fmtUSD(cost)}${s.peer_note?` (${s.peer_note})`:""}`}); opened++;openedIds.push(s.market_id); } return openedIds; @@ -1660,7 +1712,7 @@ async function backtestWeek(st){ for(const cfg of AGENTS.filter(a=>a.kind==="strategy")){ const p=st.agents[cfg.id]; markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:true}); - openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,null,claimedMarkets).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id)); + openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,null,claimedMarkets,peerMarketStats(st,cfg.id)).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id)); recordSnapshot(p); } const copyPick=chooseCopycatLeader(st); @@ -1713,7 +1765,7 @@ async function runDailyCycle(){ markToMarket(p,priceMap,cfg,{policyExits:true}); const rank=preBoard.findIndex(x=>x.id===cfg.id)+1||preBoard.length; const decision=adaptiveDecision(cfg,p,rank,preBoard.length,leaderEq); - openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,decision,claimedMarkets).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id)); + openPositions(p,cfg,cfg.rank(sugs),focus,decision,claimedMarkets,peerMarketStats(st,cfg.id)).forEach(id=>claimedMarkets.add(id)); recordSnapshot(p); } // 2) copycat shadows the in-house agent with the strongest MACD/momentum score @@ -1809,7 +1861,8 @@ function bestAndWorst(p){ function decisionSummary(p){ const d=p.lastDecision; if(!d)return "No live adaptation yet; this agent is still using its base rulebook."; - return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.`; + const emotion=d.emotion?` Emotion: ${d.emotion}${d.urgency!=null?` (${Math.round(d.urgency*100)}% urgency)`:""}.`:""; + return `${d.mode} mode: ${d.reason}${emotion} Limits now: ${d.maxNew} new trade${d.maxNew===1?"":"s"}, max ${(d.maxFrac*100).toFixed(1)}% per position${d.minConv?`, conviction ${d.minConv}+`:""}.`; } function renderAgentBrief(cfg,p,st){ const root=$("agentBrief"); if(!root)return; @@ -2468,6 +2521,7 @@ function renderPositions(positions){ return `
${title}
${p.category?`${esc(p.category)} `:""}${p.shares} ${p.side} @ ${Math.round(p.entry_price*100)}¢ → ${Math.round(p.current_price*100)}¢
+ ${p.peer_note?`
Peer read: ${esc(p.peer_note)}
`:""}
${esc(stopLossLabel(p))}
${esc(gainStopLabel(p))}
Open exact market